【作者】 廖志高；

【导师】 徐玖平；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 自人们认识到创新技术被整合纳入生产过程是导致经济增长的决定性因素之一以后，技术创新扩散已成为当今国内外管理学界研究热点问题之一，其研究中最为成功是以Bass为代表的研究学者。他们通过构建微分方程，建立微分动力学速度模型来揭示技术扩散的机制，并取得了一系列的理论成果和众多实证案例。但是，影响技术创新扩散速度的因素众多，扩散过程极其复杂，特别是在我国技术创新扩散研究总的讲还不够系统，因此，在比较系统总结国内外学者已有研究成果基础上，利用微分动力学系统理论和元胞自动机模拟技术分别建立了以下5个技术创新扩散微分动力模型和1个元胞自动机模型，并对这些模型进行数理分析与实证分析。 (1) 针对Bass模型族中技术市场潜在采用者同质的假设，考虑不同人群由于其生活水平、环境和消费习惯等不同而导致对某项技术创新扩散速度的影响，建构了基于两种人群之间成员流动的技术创新扩散模型，利用微分动力学系统理论对该模型进行分析发现：不管成员是否流动，在一定的条件下，该项技术创新扩散量将达到一终值并保持稳定。 (2) 考虑产品是有使用寿命的，有效使用寿命到期必然存在产品更新，从而对技术创新扩散速度造成影响，故在基于两种人群之间成员流动的技术创新扩散模型中添加了产品使用寿命影响因素，建立了一个带时滞的技术创新扩散模型，通过数理分析得出：在一定的约束条件下，该项技术创新扩散量将达到一终值并保持稳定。 (3) 就Bass模型族中广告对潜在消费者的影响恒为常数的假设，考虑到现实中广告周期投入，构筑了，一种带周期广告投入和价格影响市场潜力的技术创四川大学硕十毕业论文新扩散模型，通过系统分析揭示了在一定的约束条件下，市场潜力也会周期变动并保持稳定的规律。 (4)根据单一技术模型中的三阶段模型引入未知者群体，在两种技术创新扩散模型中也考虑引入未知者群体，构造了两种技术创新竞争扩散三阶段模型，对该模型进行了稳定性分析证明了在不同条件的情况下，各市场扩散量都将达到一特定值，其值将随条件发生变化而变化。 (5)依据市场中的各技术创新之间可能存在的各种关系，提出了两种技术创新同时扩散模型，通过对平衡点的讨论获得:在满足一定的条件下，存在独立型扩散、阻碍型扩散、互促型扩散、损益型扩散等各种状态。 (6)作为上述微分动力模型的补充，引入元胞自动机模拟技术，构建了一种基于元胞自动机模拟的技术创新扩散模型，通过调整参数对各种技术创新扩散过程进行计算机模拟。 最后，我们分别利用这些模型对中国移动通信技术，固定电话技术，中国彩电产品，以及中国四川省遂宁市早育秧技术的推广进行了实证分析，取得了较为满意的结果。关键词:技术创新;技术扩散;速度模型:徽分动力学系统;元胞自动机模 拟;实证分析更多还原

【Abstract】 Since people realized the innovation brought into the production process is one of the important factors to result in the economic growth, the innovation diffusion becomes one of the focuses of the research on management of all of the world. The most successful of these are the ones delegated by Bass. They post the mechanism of innovation diffusion and gained lots of results by constructing differential dynamics model with making up differential equation . But since the influence factors are too many to analysis the process of innovation diffusion by all numbers. So, with summarizing the known researches on innovation diffusion , we model 5 innovation diffusion dynamic models and one Cellular Automata model aimed at the lacks of the conditional models and make mathematics analysis and empirical analysis on these models .First, aimed at the lack of the hypothesis of the potential consumers are homogenous, we model a innovation diffusion model based on the members migrate between two colonies since people have different adopt rate for their standard living, living environment and consumption habits, we analysis the model with differential dynamic theory and find that the the mount of the innovation diffusion will tend to a fixed number with stated terms wether people migrate or not. Secondly, the new product has its life-span, so we make up a model with time-lag base on the previous model.Through the mathematics analysis,we find with stated terms the mount of the innovation diffusion will also tend to a fixed number and keep stabilization. Thirdly, a diffusion model is given with the periodic advertisement and dynamic market potential aimed at thehypothesis of the exterior infection coefficient is constant and the market potential will also change periodically. Fourth, we make up a three-phase model for the competitive diffusion of two innovations, the mount of the innovation diffusion will tend to a fixed number, the number will change as the terms change. Lastly, a model is made up for many innovations diffuse synchronously since the various relations between them.It may exist cases of independence diffusion,blocked diffusion, hastened diffusion and increase nd decrease diffusion. Except these, we also model a model base on the Cellular Automata.At last, we make demonstration analysis on the models and gain perfectly results with the numbers of China mobile, telephone,China TV set and the popularized number of the breeding on land in suining of China.更多还原