【作者】 陈平；

【导师】 张宗成；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 作为为我国政府宏观调控重要手段之一的货币政策,目前由于存在传统渠道弱化和传导机制不畅等问题,对经济的调控效果受到明显制约。随着股票市场的蓬勃发展及其与国民经济的联系日益密切,货币政策的实施必然影响到股票市场的走势和发展,同时股票市场对货币政策的效应也产生了积极的作用。因此,对我国货币政策与股票市场互动效应进行深入研究,确定股票市场能否成为新的货币政策传递渠道,使货币政策发挥出对宏观经济更加有效的调控作用,已成为我国经济领域面临的新课题。本文首先对货币政策和股票市场作简要概述,对货币政策与股票市场的关联机制进行分析,并对我国货币政策与股票市场之间相互影响作了理论阐述。然后,运用ADF检验、协整分析、向量自回归模型(VAR)、向量误差修正模型(VECM)、脉冲响应函数、方差分解技术等最新计量方法对我国货币政策与股票市场的互动效应进行实证分析,实证分析包括股市对货币流通速度的影响、股票价格变动对货币需求产生的影响,股票市场对经济增长的贡献度分析、利率对股市的影响以及货币供应量对股市的影响。最后,根据上述实证研究结果,笔者认为我国股票市场和货币政策存在一定的互动效应,但这种互动效应是比较微弱且不稳定的,原因在于货币当局制定货币政策时对股市的关注还不够,我国股票市场发展很不规范,传导货币政策的功能受阻。最后一部分对货币政策的变革方向以及股市功能的重新认识提出了新的意见和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The monetary po1icy, as one of the significant means for macroeconomic readjustment in our country, has been found apparently restricted in its role in recent years, due to traditional channels fading and transmission mechanism impediment.With vigorous development of the stock market, which is linked more closely with the national economy, the implementation of monetary policy inevitably influences its trend, while the stock market produces positive impact on the effect of the monetary po1icy. To make an in-depth study on their related effect to confirm whether the stock market can become a new transmission channel for monetary po1icy, and to make monetary policy display a more effective role in macroeconomic readjustment has now become a new task confronted in the economic field of our country.This text does the brief summary to the monetary policy and stock policy at first, analyse about the related mechanism on the monetary policy and stock market, is it act as the theory explain to influence each other to of our country monetary policy and stock market. Then, use ADF test statistic, the cointtegration test, the vector autoregression model (VAR), the vector error correction models (VECM), the impulse responses the function, variance decomposition method of econometric technology etc. analyses the real example to the monetary policy of our country and interaction effect in the stock market, the real example is analysed to include the impact on speed of money flow of the stock market , influence to monetary demand of stock price change, the impact on the contribution degree analysis of the economic growth, stock market correctly of interest rate of stock market and impact on stock market of the money supply. Finally, according to the result of study of above-mentioned real examples, I think that there are certain related effects in the stock market of our country and monetary policy, but such related effect is faint and unstable, reason lie in that monetary authorities at the monetary policy of making is not to enough concern on stock market, it is very nonstandard that the stock market of our country is developed, and the function of conducting the monetary policy is obstructed. The last part, the new opinions and suggestions for change direction in monetary policy and stock market re-recognition of function change direction in monetary policy have put forward.更多还原