【作者】 赵刚；

【导师】 朱宝宪；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 工商管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 企业并购是实现企业快速扩张和产业产权结构调整、资源重新配置的有效途径,但并不是所有的企业并购都是成功的,企业并购也是一把“双刃剑”。2000年发生的美国在线-时代华纳并购案因其创记录的交易额名噪一时,而三年之后,公司又因为惊人的亏损额而成为企业并购中的经典失败案例;究竟“世纪并购”该不该进行?并购失败的真正原因是什么?对本案例的剖析和对上述问题的研究,将为国内正在兴起的企业并购提供有益的经验和教训,对于促进我国的企业并购事业健康发展具有现实意义。本文重点分析了公司价值的评估和换股比例的确定问题。通过采用现金流折现法、比值法、剩余收益法等方法对并购前后的公司价值进行评估;并分析了换股比例的合理性。通过分析我们发现并购中双方公司的价值在并购之前都被高估了;而美国在线的被高估程度更为严重。我们认为导致并购后公司经营不利、业绩下滑的关键原因就是美国在线价值的高估;这一失误不仅影响了并购交易的结果,也使并购后公司整合和经营走入歧途。本文的结构如下:第一章介绍并购前各公司的基本情况;第二章分析并购的内外部动因,着重分析协同效应的预期。第三章介绍并购交易的过程和并购后的发展情况;并依据历史数据计算并分析并购交易中如何确定公司价值和换股比例。第四章分析美国在线价值高估的原因、程度及影响。第五章分析了美国在线-时代华纳并购案例对我国企业间并购的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2000, the merger between America Online (AOL) and Time Warner (TW) wasfamous for the hugest transaction value in the history. But three years later, it hasbecome the most classic example of failed merger cases. Is it true that the “centurymerger” is a mistake? What is the reason of failure on earth? We try to analyze thecase and answer the question in our viewpoint, and we hope it can provide someexperiences and ideas to the managers, who are doing merger business.Basing on the description of the pre-merger situation, merger process andpost-merger track of the combined company, we analyze the external and internalpromoting factors of this merger. And then, we focus on the core problem of thecase—how did they value the combined company and decide the stock exchangeratio. We evaluate the combined company and pre-merger companies by DiscountCash Flow method, Comparable Companies method and Residual Income Model.We also analyze the rationality of stock exchange ratio. We find that both ofcompanies are overvalued at the time of merger, and the America Online are moreovervalued than the Time Warner. By analyzing the management, finance andshareholders’ benefit, we can conclude that the failure of combined company mainlybecause the overvaluation of AOL. The overvaluation also leads the post-mergercompany to a wrong way.The structure of the whole report is as follow:In part one, we describe the pre-merger situation of AOL and TW respectively, thendisclose the external and internal promoting factors of the merger. In part three, weintroduce the process of merger and post-merger track of combined company, andwe also do the evaluating analyses of company and exchange ratio in this part. Wegive out the reason and the influences of overvaluation in part four. Finally weconclude the experiences that will be beneficial to our country’s merger and acquirebusiness.更多还原