【作者】 王磊；

【导师】 王忠静；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 水利工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 还原水量比例高,下垫面变化大,是当前海河流域水资源评价中面临的两个重大问题。永定河山区水资源缺乏,开发利用程度高达80%以上;受地下水位下降和资源开发等因素影响,下垫面变化剧烈,在海河流域各水系中十分突出。常规山区水资源评价方法基于水文实测数据和还原数据,这种方法在产流环境变化小、人工干扰不大的情况下,具有简单适用的特点,但对水文还原比例较大、下垫面变化剧烈的地区,会产生两类问题,一类是“还原失真”,另一类是“还原失效”。“还原失真”是指还原分析中的误差扩大化引起的水文系列失真;“还原失效”指传统还原分析无法解释某些水文下垫面变化导致水文循环规律变化这一现象。“还原失真”与“还原失效”给水资源评价提出了一个严峻问题:如何进行变化环境下的水资源评价,特别是地表水资源评价? 本文采用分布式水文模型GBHM(Geomorphology-based hydrologicalmodel), 以永定河流域山区为典型区,结合实测水文数据及遥感监测,依靠3S技术获取流域分布参数,通过对流域产流物理过程的描述,从机理上评价不同下垫面的天然地表水资源量,进而探讨下垫面的改变对流域产流的影响;可避免常规评价方法中存在的“还原失真”和“还原失效”问题,并可与常规方法计算结果进行比较和合理性分析,以增加水资源评价精度。在永定河山区典型区域研究的基础上,还可推广至海河全流域山区,根据未来海河流域山区下垫面的变化,定量预测对天然水资源量的影响。 分布式水文模型用于水资源评价和还原分析,首先在海河流域潮白河密云水库以上流域进行了初步应用,模拟结果表明该方法具有较好的前景;目前在永定河山区再次应用,以验证其适应性。但这种方法目前仍处于探索阶段,难免存在理论方法与技术上的缺陷,特别在实际运用中,不可避免地存在要求资料数据广泛、信息量大,计算中耗时长等困难,需要不断改进。更多还原

【Abstract】 In Hai River Basin there are two crucial problems in water resourcesevaluation: large proportion restoration and ferocious change of underlayingsurface. Yongding River mountain basin, a typical region in Hai River Basin,is severely short of water and its exploitured water exceeds eighty percent oftotal. Distinguished in Hai River Basin, underlaying surface of YongdingRiver mountain basin varied sharply due to ground water table descending andresources exploitation. The general method of water resources evaluationbased on data from hydrological fieldwork and restoration. It is very simpleand suitable for basins with little runoff condition change and little humaninterference. However, two problems will occur when it is applied to basinswith large proportion restoration and ferocious change of underlaying surface.One is restoration distortion and the other is restoration invalidation.Restoration distortion means the distortion of hydrological series due to theerror enlargement in restoration analysis. Restoration invalidation means thattraditional method in restoration analysis couldn’t explain the phenomenonthat some changes of hydrological underlaying surface resulted in changes ofwater circle rules. Restoration distortion and invalidation raised an austerepoint that how to carry out the water resources evaluation, especially thesurface water resources evaluation under changing conditions. The GBHM(Geomorphology-based hydrological model), one of distributedphysically-based hydrological models, is applied to simulate the hydrologicalprocess, together with the data from hydrological fieldwork and RS. It dependson techniques of GIS and RS to get basin distributed parameters. And itevaluate the natural surface water resources of different underlaying surfacethrough describing the physical runoff process in order to probe into basinrunoff principles caused by changes of underlaying surface. It could avoid the - II -<WP=5>problems of restoration distortion and invalidation. And the results could becompared with those got by general method and make rationality analysis inorder to improve the accuracy of water resources evaluation. On the basis ofresearch on this typical area, the model could be extended to all mountainareas in Hai River Basin and the quantity of natural water resources could bepredicted according to future changes of underlaying surface there. The way that distributed hydrological models are applied to simulatenatural water circle and consequently used in water resources evaluation andrestoration analysis, is first applied in ChaoBai River Basin, another part ofHai River Basin. The results indicated the method is promising. At present themethod is applied to Yongding River mountain basin again in order to verifyits applicability. However, the method is still in the exploration period. So it ishard to avoid some blemishes of theory and technology. Especially in thepractical application, there exist a few problems inevitably, such as theenormous need for various data as well as long computation time.更多还原