【作者】 吴晓雄；

【导师】 郭耀煌；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 工业化、城市化、现代化是城市经济发展的三大主题。中国的城市化和工业化建设在21世纪将进一步加快，从而实现工业化中期向后期的阶段性转换，带动经济结构的优化和升级，优化产业布局，增强中心城市的综合经济实力和辐射影响力度，提高市域城市化水平，促进城乡经济社会二元结构的现代化改造，为在21世纪中叶实现第三步战略目标——基本实现现代化奠定坚实的基础。 本文首先对成都市的国民经济和社会发展状况，国际、国内环境，该城市周围的发展环境以及城市的发展定位作了详细的背景分析；然后依据成都市的历史统计数据，运用宏观经济学的指标、方法和应用数学理论，对该城市未来十年至十五年的发展目标进行了综合研究和分析，并结合我国当前经济体制过渡期的某些特点以及该城市的整体发展思路建立了宏观经济计量模型，该模型主要用于对城市的未来经济发展作出预测，为提出可实施的国民经济和社会发展目标规划提供了理论依据。 本文还将近3年的统计数据与预测值进行比较，进一步验证了该模型的准确性和可行性。并根据最新的国内外形势对预测值作出修正，在贯彻国家的总体精神的前提下，提出了该城市未来的发展目标。并对该城市的重大问题及其对策、政策进行了研究。提出实施发展目标规划的对策及相应的政策研究，并提出了实现发展目标的政策建议。 通过本文，我们也认识到工业化的阶段性转换和产业结构的升级必然导致相应的产业地域结构变化，从而客观上提出了优化产业布局的要求；城市化进程的推进客观上要求市域内不同层次、不同功能的城市(镇)得以协调发展。因此优化产业布局、推进城市化进程是未来15年该城市经济社会发展的客观需要。更多还原

【Abstract】 The industrialization, urbanization, modernization are three major themes of urban economy development. Urbanization of China and industrialized construction will be accelerated further in the 21st century, Thus realize middle period for industrialization to back-end phased conversion, drive the optimization and upgrading of economic structure, Optimizing industry’s overall arrangement, it influences dynamics to strengthen the synthesized economic strength and radiation of the key city In order to realize the third stage stragetic goals in the middle period of 21st century 桼ealize basically that the modernization establishes the solid foundation.This paper analyses Chengdu national economy and social development condition , international and nation environment , development environment around Chengdu and the city’s development orientation, then on the base of Historical statistics of Chengdu in this paper, Using the index and method of macroeconomics to carry on comprehensive research and analyse to this development goal from the following ten years to 15 of city, And set up macroeconomy model being combined with some characteristic of our country’s economy system and the Chengdu overall development ideas currently, This model is mainly used for forecast the Chengdu future economy development and supply theoretical warrant.In addition, nearly the statistics in 3 are compared with the predicted value in this text, Have verified the accuracy and feasibility of this model further. Revise the predicted value and study some important questions according to the latest domestic and international situation. Have defined this development goal in the future of city.According to this paper, We realize too that the industrialized phased conversion and upgrading of the industrial structure must cause the corresponding industry region structure to change, Thus put forward the request for optimizing industry’s overall arrangement objectively, Urbanization promotion of process require city intra-areadifferent levels , different city ( town ) of function must use coordinated development objectively. So it is the desirability of this city socio-economic development of the following 15 years to optimize industry’s overall arrangement, advance the urbanization process更多还原