现代物流与经济增长关系研究——基于浙江省的研究

【作者】 李燕；

【导师】 刘南；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来，现代物流在社会经济中的地位变得越来越重要，并逐渐引起人们的关注，现代物流与经济增长之间的作用关系也成为各级政府和理论界共同探讨的话题。在阅读和归纳分析相关文献的基础上，笔者主要就现代物流与经济增长之间的相瓦作用关系在以下三个方面进行了研究：现代物流供给能力与经济增长之间，经济增长与物流需求之间以及现代物流发展成效与经济增长之间的相互作用关系。 论文主要采用对变量之间相互作用关系进行分析的计量经济方法——格兰杰因果检验对上述内容进行了定量研究和分析。结合前人研究的理论基础，首先根据浙江省现代物流发展与经济增长的实际对二者之间关系进行定性判断，然后基于浙江省1978至2003年的统计数据，应用格兰杰因果检验法对上述关系的判断进行验证和分析，以此来揭示现代物流与经济增长相互促进、共同发展的作用机制。 论文的主要研究结论如下：(1)从现代物流供给能力发展水平上看，现代物流供给能力与经济增长呈现出相互促进发展作用关系，但就浙江省而言，现代物流水平还较低，对经济增长的促进作用还没有发挥出来。(2)从现代物流需求的角度上看，经济的快速增长必然带来对现代物流的巨大需求，浙江省现代物流与经济发展实际进一步证实了经济的快速增长能够为现代物流进一步的发展打好良好基础。(3)现代物流与经济增长之间不是简单的单向促进作用关系而是相互协调、共同发展双向促进作用机制。从浙江省现代物流发展成效与经济增长的关系定量分析中看出，现代物流的发展与经济增长互为因果关系，二者呈现出协调发展的良好态势。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past years, logistics has become more and more important in the society and the impact of logistics on the economy has gained more and more attention by the governments and the researchers. The relationship between logistics and economic growth has become one of the most important research topics in the field of logistics management. After reading the related literatures, we made the research on the following aspects: (l)the relationship between the logistics capability and economic growth, (2)the relationship between the logistics demand and the economic growth, (3)the relationship between the performance of logistics and the economic growth.In this study, we use the test of Granger Causality to figure out the exact relationship between logistics and economic growth. Based on the logistics management and economic growth theories, the relationship between logistics and economy growth in Zhejiang province is studied qualitatively in the first stage, then by using the test of Granger Causality , the relationship is studied quantitatively.The conclusion of this study: (1) There is relationship between the logistics capabilities and the economic growth. As for Zhejiang province, because of the low level of the logistics capabilities, the impact of the logistics capabilities on the economic growth is indistinctive. (2) The high speed of economic growth can make the logistics demand grow rapidly. The fact of Zhejiang province have confirmed this. (3) In fact, the logistics and the economy have developed in phase rapidly. It is not true that only one of them have the impacts on the other.更多还原