【作者】 邓飞；

【导师】 谢科范；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本文利用概率论和博弈论对高科技创业企业决策搜索过程进行了分析。在创业起业阶段，通过对决策者搜索的期望利润与在位者所获行业利润进行比较分析，得出了搜索的期望分布函数为均匀分布和具有随机一阶占优性的结论，解释了已经搜索进入到该行业的平均利润高于正在进行搜索的决策者的期望利润。分析并提出了各投资者对预期搜索组建的高科技企业的贡献偏好越强，那么企业的形成动因越强；对于创业搜索的形成，企业的产出或利益分配机制不产生影响，它被各投资者拟贡献的资源之和所替代；然后得出了：随着企业投资者数的增多创业企业的稳定性对投资者的偏好的灵敏度越高，而以企业投资者确定的最优边界，随企业投资者贡献偏好的增强呈指数扩大。 本文认为，创业企业搜索进入到垂直型纵向一体化、纵向垂直型企业集团时，表现在处于条块分割市场具有纵向链性质的纵向产业关系中。分析了在纵向外部性的作用下，这种纵向产业关系中存在很强制动因搜索形成垂直型高科技企业集团。在竞争性的纵向高科技产业关系中，由于市场交易的多种不确定性，与在专用性投资生产专用性或获准专用性中间产品需要之间内在的矛盾，使得企业之间存在或强动因或弱动因去搜索组建高科技企业集团。当中间产品的专用性很强且市场交易费用很高时，企业之间存在强动因通过纵向一体化形成高科技企业集团的核心层；反之，当中间产品的专用性很弱且市场交易费用很低时，企业之间存在弱动因通过建立企业网络形成企业集团的紧密层或半紧密层。面对风险较大的市场不确定性的弱势企业，存在强动因通过订立长期契约成为企业集团的协作层。此外现实中有很多企业纵向化搜索是在弱动因下搜索形成的，它不一定有利于改进社会福利，对于这样的高科技企业的搜索组建政府应当采取谨慎态度。 创业企业搜索进入到水平化搜索阶段，搜索动因转为追求规模经济，追求规模经济并不是水平型企业集团形成的充分条件，只是在产业技术水平和管理水平约束下的必要条件；同时导致创业企业水平化搜索组建动因是要素互补。高科技企业生产的产品之间的要素互补是另一种经济外部性，这种外部性同样在创业企业搜索完成之后被内部化了，因而提高企业所有成员的经济效益。 最后，通过案例分析，将本文的理论研究成果运用于对现实高科技企业的决策搜索过程进行了解释，同时也是对理论本身的一次检验。案例研究表明，在假设情况下的一般结论与现实相符。更多还原

【Abstract】 The thesis analyzes the process of searching decision in high-tech start-up enterprise utilizing the probability theory and game theory. During the period of start-up, obtain the result that the distributed evenly function of searching is even distribution and have one steps excellent and explain the average profit is higher than expected profit of searching decision by means of independence and analysis the expected profit of decision and transaction profit. It analyze that the more intense of deviation of contribution which investors make to expected high-tech enterprise to be found, the more intense of motion of enterprise formulation. The output and profit distribution of the enterprise are affected by the formulation of undertaking searching, instead of expected resource of investors. And last draw a conclusion, with the number of the numbers of shareholder of enterprise increasing, the sensitive of investors preference of is much higher than in aspect of the stability of start-up enterprise. Optimum border which the enterprise shareholder confirms exponentially with the enhancement of deviation of contribution of investors.When the start-up enterprise searching entering the vertical integration and the vertical enterprise group, present the vertical industrial relationship have vertical chain nature in the market that is separated by rectangle. Analyze under the function of the vertical exterior reference, there is vertical high-technology enterprise by reason searching with force in the vertical transaction relationship. In the competitive vertical transaction relationship, because of the uncertainty of market trade and inter contradiction of specific investment producing and the demand of permission specific intermediate goods, there are caused to set up the high-tech enterprise group between enterprises. There are core layer of the high-tech enterprise group formulated by vertical integration with strong motion when the special-purpose of intermediate goods is very strong and trade expenses are high. On the contrary, there are close layer or half close layer of enterprise group formulated by enterprise net with weak motion, when the special-purpose of intermediate goods is weak and trade expenses are low. Faced with high risk and uncertain tendency of market enterprises, there is cooperation layer of the enterprise group formulated by long-term agreement with strong cause. Many enterprise vertical hunting is by the weak cause, which is may not benefit to the society warfare, and the government should hold the prudent attitude to the set up of the high-technology enterprise searching.When the enterprise searching enters the level searching, the searching cause transfers to the pursuing the large-scale production and prove that pursuing the large-scale production is not the abundant condition of level enterprise formulation, but It is that a key element which is complementary to cause the level of pioneering enterprise to search for the reason of setting up. The complementary key in the high-tech enterprise goods is another economic exterior reference. The exterior come to the inside when the enterprise searching completes, so improve the economic benefits of the members of all of enterprises.Finally, using the case study, apply the theory research results of this thesis to the searching decision course in the realistic high-tech enterprise. At the same time, this is examination of the theory itself. The motion study shows that the theory research results of this text can explain the reality well and the general conclusion under supposing the situation conforms with reality basically too.更多还原