【作者】 邹武平；

【导师】 邓明然；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 会计学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放26年来，我国民营企业已经成为一股锐不可挡的经济势力，在国家经济生活中发挥着越来越重要的作用。而今，民营企业已经成为我国全面建设小康社会的重要力量。但是我国民营企业的发展并不是一帆风顺，其中一个重要的特点是寿命短，难长大!大量民营企业夭折的主要原因在于缺乏科学的投资管理过程。决策的随意化、情绪化、个人化、非理性化、主观化和易变性，构成了一些民营企业家的主要行为模式。在投资决策过程中，民营企业家往往头脑发热，拍拍脑袋就决定了一个投资项目，这样的投资决策往往会使项目最终难逃失败的厄运。 本文的研究思路是：从民营企业投资决策存在的问题出发，对民营企业投资方案的选择、投资规模的确定、投资效益的评价和投资风险的测度等进行了定量和定性的探讨。本文是在已有投资决策理论与方法的基础上，结合民营企业的特点，进行的归纳与总结，分析和介绍了几种适合民营企业投资决策的方法，并介绍了投资决策的前沿理论。文章研究的目的是为民营企业投资决策提供理论依据，使它们能科学的决策，从而减少投资失败的可能性。 论文第1章为引言；第2章对民营企业的发展现状及其投资管理存在的问题进行了概述；第3章介绍了投资决策的传统理论和前沿理论(实物期权理论和期权博弈理论)；第4章对民营企业如何确定投资规模进行了探讨，介绍了本量利分析法和分步法；第5章介绍了投资方案选择的贴现分析评价方法和非贴现分析评价方法；第6章介绍了项目投资效益评价的常用指标，主要是反映民营企业盈利能力和偿债能力的指标；第7章提出了几种测度投资风险的方法，除了传统的概率、期望值、方差和标准差之外，还介绍了主观评分法、决策树法和层次分析法；第8章为结论。 民营企业要生存和发展，必定离不开科学的投资管理过程。只要民营企业善于学习，掌握科学的投资管理方法，那么就一定能够冲出败局，走向长寿!走向成熟!走向辉煌!更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 26 years of reforming and opening up to the world, the nongovernmental enterprise of our country has already become a share of sharp economic forces that can’t block , playing an more and more important role in country’s economic life. Now, the nongovernmental enterprise has already become important strength that our country has built the well-to-do society in an all-round way. But the development of the nongovernmental enterprise of our country is not plain sailing, an important characteristic among them is short-lived, it is difficult to grow up! The main reason that a large number of nongovernmental enterprises die young lies in lacking scientific investment management. Some nongovernmental entrepreneurs often decide projects optionally and subjectively, which often result to the abortion of project decision-making finally.The paper begins with the problem of nongovernmental enterprise’ decision-making, introduces the selecting of investment project, the making certain of investment size, the appraising of investment benefit and the measuring of investment risk. This text combines the characteristic of the nongovernmental enterprise on the basis of already having decision theory of investment and method, summing up and summary that carried on, had analysed and recommended several kinds to suit investment decision method of nongovernmental enterprise, and has introduced the front theory of the investment decision. The purpose that the article studies is to offer the theoretical foundation for investment decision of nongovernmental enterprise, the decision of enabling them to be scientific, thus reduce the possibility of investing failing.Chapter 1 of thesis is the foreword; Chapter 2 has carried on the summary to current situation of the development and existing problem of management of investment of the nongovernmental enterprise; Chapter 3 introduced the traditional theory of the investment decision and front theory; Chapter 4 introduced how nongovernmental enterprise to confirm scale of investment; Chapter 5 introduces the discount method and the non-discount method during the course of nongovernmental enterprise selecting the investment project, and introduces how to choose the discount rate; Chapter 6 introduced some indexes of appraising project benefit; Chapter 7 put forward several kinds of methods to estimate investment risk; The last chapter is a conclusion.The nongovernmental enterprise will not survive and develop without scientific investment management. So long as the nongovernmental enterprise is good at studying, grasp the scientific investment management procedure, they can unquestionably go out of the lost game, move towards the longevity! Move to maturity! It is brilliant to move towards!更多还原