【作者】 杜俊红；

【导师】 滕欢；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国电力工业的发展和电网规模的扩大，电网的结构和运行方式变得越来越复杂。如何有效的提高和保证电力系统的安全可靠性和运行的经济性已成为电力系统发展的一个重要目标。电力系统的负荷是影响电力系统安全运行的原因之一，负荷的突然增加或者减少会对电力系统的安全运行带来不良的影响，因此有必要进行有效的负荷预测，在线跟踪负荷的变化。 由于电力市场的进一步推进，人们更多关注的是短期负荷预测，焦点集中在如何提高预测的精度上，对如何利用负荷预测来提高系统安全性的研究很少。然而，当电力系统的运行方式发生较大的改动时，如一条输电线路断开，调度部门需要知道几分钟或者几十分钟后的负荷变化，从而对系统的安全运行状态进行判断，而短期负荷预测一般是整点预测，难以满足调度部门的要求。基于此，本文提出了在线超短期负荷预测，并建立了两种超短期负荷预测模型：一种是基于线性外推法的超短期负荷预测：一种是基于BP网络的超短期负荷预测。并将其用于电力系统潮流计算和安全分析中，以分析电网在未来某时刻负荷变化超过一定值后，系统在当前运行方式下和预想运行方式下的安全运行情况，从而使运行人员更好地掌握系统未来的运行状况，并采取相应的预防措施，以提高系统的安全稳定性。 本文研究的超短期负荷预测模型结构合理，运算速度快，满足系统实时性的要求，把它应用到电力系统潮流计算和安全分析中去，有利于提高电网的安全性和可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the development of electric power industry and the scale-up of power network, the structure and operation mode become more and more complex. It is an important goal to improve the security and economy of power system. The sudden load increase or decrease may effect on security of electric power system badly. So it is important to forecast load and track the load alteration.With the advancing of electric power market, people have paid a lot of attention on short-time forecasting, focusing on how to improve the precision of load forecasting, but using the load forecasting to improve the security of system is quite limited. When the electric power system operation mode is changed, the department of dispatch needs to know the future alteration of load from a few minutes to less than an hour. The short-time load forecasting usually is forecasting hourly, which cannot meet the needs of the requirement of dispatch department. In this paper, two models of online super short-time load forecasting are proposed. One is based on the linear extrapolation, the other on the BP. Using this model in flow computation and security analysis can help to analysis the secure operation state of power system at the next interval when the load alteration violate the fixed value, which would help operators to control the status of power network at the next interval, and take some corresponding operation to improve the security and reliability of power network.The forecasting model presented in this paper has a reasonable structure, and it can meet the real time requirement of power system. Using it into flow computation and security analysis can improve the security and reliability of electric power system.更多还原