【作者】 刘锴；

【导师】 韩增林；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 城市社会经济的最佳发展,在客观上存在一个适度、合理的人口规模。尤其对于高速发展的现代化城市来说,是十分必要的,也是急待解决的关键性问题之一。在本研究中主要运用多种方法对人口合理规模进行测定,同时对各种测定方法进行评价,分析出各种方法的优缺点,最终确定一种较为合理的测定方法,对大连市人口的合理规模进行了科学的预测,为大连市政府制定未来人口发展战略以及其他相关政策提供可靠的理论依据。全文共分五个部分,具体内容如下:在导论中,介绍本研究的意义、本研究领域的研究现状,研究内容以及方法等。第一章是对相关概念的界定和背景资料的分析。主要是在分析人口容量和人口规模的区别和联系基础上,对人口合理规模作以界定;同时对大连市的现状和背景资料作以分析。第二章是全文的主体部分,主要是采用多种方法,从多个角度对未来大连市的人口增长进行定性与定量的研究,并在改进以往经典人口预测模型的基础上,构造函数,对大连市合理的人口规模进行科学的预测。第三章主要对大连市人口合理规模预测结论进行比较论证。第四章主要对全文作以结论,并对政府和有关方面提出相应的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 An appropriate, rational population scale exists objectively, for the best development of the social economy city. It is very essential, and one of the urgent key problems that wait to solve too, especially to modernized city of high-speed development. It uses many kinds of methods to determine the rational scale of population mainly in this research, confirms one comparatively rational survey method finally, carries on scientific prediction to the rational scale of Dalian’s population, offers the reliable theoretical foundation for the thing which that the government of Dalian makes people’s development strategy and other relevant policies in the future. The full text divides into five parts altogether, concrete the following of content:It has told the meaning that should be studied, the research current situation of this research field mainly in the introduction, research contents and method, etc..It mainly defines the relevant concept and analyses the background materials in ChapterⅠ. It is analyzing on the difference between people’s capacity and people’s scale and foundation of contacting mainly, do the rational scale of population in order to define. Do current situation and background materials of Dalian with analysis at the same time.ChapterⅡ is a subject part of the full text. It adopts many kinds of methods, by way of qualitative rations, to study the future growth of Dalian’s population from a lot of angle. It constructs function on the basis of improving the classical population forecast model in the past.It relatively proves the conclusion that the rational scale of population predicts mainly in chapter Ⅲ.It draws a conclusion to the full text mainly in Chapter Ⅳ and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to the government and department concerned.更多还原