【作者】 王晶；

【导师】 张龙军； 陈尚；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 海洋化学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 对污染物进入环境的后果进行预测性评估是帮助环保工作者科学决策的重要理论依据。在我国，长期以来，片面强调海洋资源开发，忽视海洋环境保护，各海区都受到了不同程度的污染。渤海作为我国北方沿海经济发展的重要支撑，近几年生态系统已遭到了严重破坏。对渤海的环境风险进行预期性评价将从风险管理角度为渤海的环境保护工作提出新的建议。 本文以GEF／UNDP／IMO资助项目“东亚海洋环境管理伙伴关系计划（PEMSEA）”中的“渤海环境风险评价与管理”课题为依托，按照国际通行的预期性环境风险评价方法进行渤海预期性环境风险评价研究，并针对渤海生态特点和我国国情对风险系数法进行了一些改进。 主要改进如下： （1）提出“关注的环境风险强度（CRI）”的概念并定量计算渤海水体的关注风险强度。 （2）利用海洋生物的半致死浓度LC₅₀计算污染物在环境风险中的权重系数，并进一步给出计算海域综合风险强度的办法。这在国内还是大胆尝试。 （3）作为区域性的环境风险评价，我们还补充了自然风险因子的定性评价。通过对渤海环境的风险评估，我们发现： （1）Pb、Hg、石油烃在整个渤海都是需要优先关注的风险因子；TSS、DIN、DIP、COD、Cu是区域性的风险因子；Cd是可接受的风险因子。 （2）对CRI比较，渤海水体中环境风险因子的顺序是：Pb＞TSS＞Hg＞石油烃＞DIN＞DIP＞COD＞Cu＞Cd。 （3）人类健康风险评价的初步结果，渤海近岸扇贝体内的Cd和As对人体的潜在危害较大。 （4）渤海自然风险因子的定性评价为： ①根据近五十年来渤海各海区赤潮发生情况的统计，辽东湾和渤海湾是渤海赤潮的高发区域，6-9月是渤海赤潮的多发季节。渤海（预期性）环境风险评价研究 ②渤海每年自11月至次年3月出现冰冻现象。三个海湾比较，辽东湾冰情最重。 ③渤海的风暴潮灾害多由温带气旋引起，莱州湾沿岸是温带风暴潮灾害的重灾区。秋季（9一11月）发生次数最多。4月份是莱州湾地区严重风暴潮发生的主要月份。 尽管本文对渤海的环境风险进行了较深入的分析评估，得到了比较可靠的结果，但要使评估更加全面，还需要在如下方面深入: 1.沉积物的环境状况也是海域环境的重要反映。限于数据本文未对沉积物的风险进行分析，这方面的工作应该补充。 2.计算综合风险强度时，营养盐等的权重有待进一步研究。 3.对于自然风险的评价，应考虑自然风险的危害等级、每一等级的发生概率和不同灾害的权重。更多还原

【Abstract】 The prospective risk assessment for the results of contaminants flowing into environment is the important basis of policies for environment protection. In China the development of marine resources was unilaterally emphasized while the environment protection was neglected so that sea areas are all polluted to some degree. In the past years, the ecosystem of Bohai Sea has been seriously destroyed. The prospective risk assessment of Bohai Sea is sure to be a constructive part in the environment protection.This paper is according to the Environmental Risk Assessment and Management of Bohai Sea, which is as part of the most important contents of the PEMSEA program funded by GEF/UNDP/IMO. Based on the currently popular risk assessment technique-RQ-based technique, some improvements are done and the prospective risk assessment of Bohai Sea has been accomplished.The main improvements are that:(1) A new concept is brought forward which is the concerned risk quotient (CRI) and CRI of parameters in water column is quantified.(2) Weights of the pollutants are got by the LCso and the integrated risk intensity is ascertained which is audacious domestically.(3) The natural risk agents are assessed for it is the necessity part in the territorial risk assessment.The results are:(1) Pb> Hg and oil are the priority risk agents to the whole sea and TSS^ DINK DIP-COD-. Cu are localized risk agents while Cd is the acceptable agent.(2) With the comparison of CRI, the most concerned agents are Pb>TSS> Hg>oil>DIN> DIP >COD>Cu>Cd.(3) In the human-health risk assessment, Cd and As are the most possible potential risk agents.(4) To the natural risk assessment:(1) With the statistic of the red tide in the past 50 years Liaodong Bay and Bohai Bay are the most frequent areas while June to September is the most likely seasons.(2) From November to next March there is frozen in Bohai Sea. Liaodong Bay is the most serious area among the three bays.(3) Windstorms in Bohai Sea are mainly caused by Temperate Zone cyclone. Coast of Laizhou Bay is the most severe disaster area. To the whole sea it most likely happens in autumn (September to November). And to Laizhou Bay the time is April.Though the risk analysis of Bohai Sea is discussed embedded there are something to be improved.1. For the lack of raw data the risk analysis is not mentioned but the method is applicable.2. The weight of nutrients should be studied further.3. As well as the natural risk assessment the technique by Lu Hongwei is maybe reasonable. With the special and temporal limitation it is not mentioned in this paper.更多还原