【作者】 王吉权；

【导师】 赵玉林；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业电气化与自动化， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 负荷预测在电力系统的生产和运行中起重要作用，掌握负荷变化规律，选择合适的负荷预测模型，是提高负荷预测精度的关键。 本文研究了中长期负荷预测理论及其应用。首先简要介绍电力负荷预测的目的、意义及国内外研究动态和趋势；然后详细介绍电力负荷预测的分类、负荷预测的方法及特点、各种预测方法的适用范围、影响负荷预测的主要因素、地方电力负荷的特点等；在此基础上，就黑龙江省地方电力系统负荷预测进行了系统的研究，在研究过程中，提出了增长曲线预测模型参数估计的一种新方法——优化回归组合法；最后，对负荷预测软件实现进行了详尽的论述，并结合电力负荷预测的具体情况，较为深入地分析了预测理论在电力系统中长期负荷预测中的应用，对季节周期预测法、增长曲线预测法和组合预测法通过具体示例进行了仿真实验。实验结果表明，将本研究中的各种预测模型应用于地方电力系统负荷预测中，具有较高的预测精度，是较为科学的预测方法。 针对研究中的各种预测模型，开发出了相应的负荷预测软件。该预测软件集成了数据录入功能、负荷预测功能、误差分析功能、图形分析功能。该预测软件操作方便、实用性强，具有推广使用价值。 本研究为黑龙江省地方电力系统调度、计划、规划和营销等技术管理部门提供了理论依据，有助于地方电力系统管理现代化的实现，不仅具有非常重要的理论意义，而且还具有十分显著的工程实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Load forecasting plays an important role in the production and operation of the power system, knowing load variable laws and choosing suitable load forecasting model was the key to improving load forecasting precision.Mid-long term load forecasting theory and its application was studied in this paper. At first, the purpose, significance of load forecasting, domestic and international developments and trends of research were reviewed briefly; then it detailedly introduced the classification of load forecasting, methods and characteristics load forecasting, applicable scope of various forecasting methods, main factors of influence load forecasting, etc; moreover, it went on systematic research the load forecasting of local power system of Heilongjiang Province, andpresented one new method for estimating the parameters of gorwth curve-optimizationregression combing method; at last, the realization of the load forecasting software was discussed, and combined with concrete condition of power load forecasting, and analysed deeply application of mid-long term load forecasting in power system, and went on the simulation experiment through concrete examples to seasonal periodicity forecasting method, growth curve forecasting method and combination forecasting method. The results showed mat various forecasting methods applied in the load forecasting of local power system were the comparatively scientific forecasting methods with high precision.Relevant load forecasting software was developed for various forecasting model in the study. The software integrated the functions of data input, function of load forecasting, function of error analysis, function of figure analysis. The forecasting software has operating convenience and strong practicability, which is worth using widely.The study provided the theoretical evidence for schedue, plan, layout and market of the technological administrative department of Heilongjiang Province local power system, contributed to the realization of the modernization of management of the local power system, It not only has very important theoretical significance, but also has very remarkable practical value of project.更多还原