【作者】 陈建民；

【导师】 王昌衡；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 道路与铁道， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着交通运输的快速发展，车辆交通渠化以及轴载轮压的不断增加，使得沥青路面在使用期内大都产生轻重不一的车辙。针对沥青混合料高温稳定性能本身及其影响因素存在的不确定性，本文运用灰色系统理论研究了这个“部分信息已知，部分信息未知”的“小样本”、“贫信息”不确定系统，通过对“部分”信息的生成、开发，实现对这一系统的正确把握和描述。 通过对沥青混合料高温稳定性影响因素的灰色关联分析，在所知数据不多的条件下，计算出车辙大小与各项影响因素的灰色关联度，找出了影响沥青混合料高温稳定性各项因素的关联顺序，并对各项影响因素分别进行了研究，为沥青混合料的设计、评价、控制、和高温性能的改善提供了依据。 为反映沥青混合料高温稳定性实际状态，我们将传统确定性模型的模型参数或系统输入进行灰化处理，引入灰结构、灰参数及灰变量，得到相应的既充分利用了人们对沥青混合料高温稳定性系统发展变化规律的现有认识，又对系统存在的“灰性”进行了恰当处理的沥青混合料车辙预估灰色模型。根据试验结果和各参数研究，分析了沥青混合料高温稳定性车辙预估灰色非本征方程中各个灰参数取值范围(上下界)和灰色权函数。 最后本文对沥青类路面车辙养护进行了探讨，通过比较研究和分析了各国沥青路面车辙养护标准，提出了车辙限值数值，利用灰色GM模型预测了沥青路面车辙发展历程，为沥青路面养护资金规划提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Owing to the rapid expansion of transportation, the channeled traffic steam and more powerful vehicles, asphalt pavement witness multiplying rut in service limit. Because Grey System Theory is an efficient tool for problems that lack enough information or have uncertain condition, it is used in this research report to analyze the problem of asphalt mixture high temperature stabilization performance, a complex problem with many uncertain conditions.With the help of Grey Incidence Analysis, the parameters that influence rut of asphalt pavement most and the influence sequence of each factor are found out with limited data. This study reveals the relationship between this factors, and shows which we should pay more attention in design and maintenance of asphalt mixture. Gray relation entropy method overcomes the shortcoming in gray relation analysis, and provides a reliable basis for design, a direction for improve rutting resistance of asphalt mixture.In order to give expression to the indeterminacy, we introduce grey structure, grey parameter and grey variable into the determinate rut predication models. The gray models are important tools to forecast, evaluate and control rut, because they not only make best of the existing knowledge, but also correctly take the gray characteristics into consideration. And varying interval and Grey power function of Grey parameter in this model is also defined with experimental results of the author and many related references.Finally, this paper gives a control standard of rut by studying the asphalt pavement maintenance criterion of a great deal of countries in the world. By the use of grey GM model, we can predict the development of rut, which can be the base of financing plan for asphalt pavement maintenance.更多还原