【作者】 骆传朋；

【导师】 周茂荣；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 世界经济， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 汇率问题是国际金融领域的核心问题，均衡汇率则是这一核心问题的核心。均衡的汇率和有效的汇率制度有助于一国经济实现内外部均衡；而非均衡的汇率和不合适的汇率制度可能会影响一国经济金融的稳定，甚至引发区域性的金融危机。在人民币面临较大升值压力的背景下，对人民币均衡汇率进行研究有助于我们更加清晰地认识这种升值压力，并为我们缓解这种压力提供了一些可能的解决方案。 本文共分为四章。各章内容如下： 第一章人民币汇率的演变。主要介绍了人民币汇率的演变历程，并指出在不同时期影响人民币汇率的主要因素。从总体上看，人民币汇率演变经历了三个发展阶段，即计划经济体制下的人民币汇率、经济体制改革中的人民币汇率和向市场汇率转变中的人民币汇率，并且各个阶段都有着不同的特点。 第二章人民币均衡汇率。本章在Elbadawi(1994)的均衡汇率理论的基础上，建立了人民币的ERER模型，并利用现代的计量工具和计量方法对有关变量进行处理和分析，实证测算出了改革开放以来历年的人民币均衡汇率，并对1980——2002年之间的人民币汇率进行了评估。 第三章人民币升值问题研究。本章在第二章人民币均衡汇率的基础上，对人民币升值论产生的背景、人民币升值压力的成因、人民币升值对我国经济的影响及我国可采取的政策措施等四个方面的问题进行了探讨。 第四章资本项目自由化背景下的人民币汇率制度选择。人民币汇率问题不仅是一个汇率问题，而且也是一个汇率制度的问题，因此，在本文的结尾，我们对当前我国的汇率制度选择进行探讨，并提出一些建议。 通过以上论述，我们最终得出的结论是：当前人民币汇率的确存在一定程度的低估，但低估程度不大，因此我国当前应保持人民币汇率的稳定，并逐步改革我国的汇率形成机制，使之与资本项目开放相互促进、相辅相成。更多还原

【Abstract】 Exchange rate is the core problem in the filed of international finance, and equilibrium exchange rate is the core of the core problem. An equilibrium exchange rate and effective exchange rate system will do help to the inner and outer equilibrium of an economy; however, non-equilibrium exchange rate and improper exchange rate system will threaten the stability of economy and finance, and can even arouse regional financial crisis. Under the background of RMB’s appreciation expectation, the study on the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB will make for the clear understanding of this expectation, and provide some probable solutions for the relaxation of the expectation.The paper consists of 4 chapters, and the contents of each are as follows:Chapter 1 The Evolvement of the Exchange Rate of RMB. This chapter mainly introduces the evolvement of the exchange rate of RMB, and indicates the key factors influencing the exchange rate in different periods. In general, the exchange rate of RMB has gone through 3 development phases, which are the exchange rate of RMB in planned economy system, the exchange rate of RMB in the reform of economy system and the exchange rate of RMB in the transition to market exchange rate, and each phase is with unique features.Chapter 2 The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB. This chapter sets up the ERER model of RMB on the base of Elbadawi’s equilibrium exchange rate theory, and calculates the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB of each year since 1980 by analysising the relating variables with advanced metric tools and measures. Then, we give an evaluation of the exchange rate of RMB from 1980 to 2002.Chapter 3 Study on the Appreciation of RMB. This chapter explores the background of the argument of RMB’s appreciation, the reasons of the expectation of RMB’s appreciation, the influences of RMB’s appreciation on China’s economy and the applicable measures that can be taken on the base of the study on the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB in chapter 2.Chapter 4 The Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime of RMB under the background of the opening of capital item. The exchange rate of RMB is not only a problem of exchange rate, but also a problem of exchange rate regime. At the end of paper, we explore the current choice of exchange rate regime of RMB, and give some suggestions.All the above lead to a conclusion: the current exchange rate of RMB isoverrated indeed, but the extent is not large enough to vary the nominal exchange rate. Therefore, we should keep the stability of the exchange rate of RMB and reform the regime of the exchange rate of RMB to adapt to the opening of capital item.更多还原