【作者】 穆锦斌；

【导师】 张小峰；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 水力学及河流动力学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 涌潮和洪水频繁泛滥给人民生命财产带来了巨大的灾难，阻碍了国民经济的持续发展。论文在总结前人对涌潮研究的基础上，建立一维涌潮数学模型，通过数值试验，对涌潮的形成条件作了系统的研究，分析了糙率对涌潮的影响，并得出了一些有意义的成果：对于非线性的水文系统，一维水动力学模型用于水文预报精度尚存在问题，论文提出了水动力学实时校正模型，提高了模型的预报精度，并将所建立的模型应用于实际问题的研究。 本文共分五章，各章主要内容如下： 第1章 明确本文研究的对象与目的。介绍了涌潮和洪水演进计算的研究现状，对涌潮的基本情况和洪水演进的主要方法进行叙述；详细介绍了求解描述水流运动的方程组的常用的数值方法。 第2章 采用有限体积法建立了一维涌潮数学模型，根据涌潮与水跃、溃坝波运动的某些方面类似特点，运用水跃计算、溃坝波的理论解，对一维数学模型的计算精度进行系统验证。计算结果表明模型应用于涌潮模拟时具有较高精度。 第3章 以概化的矩形河道为对象，采用一维涌潮数学模型对潮波进行模拟，对涌潮的成因作了分析研究。通过计算得出，涌潮形成的两个条件为：河道地形和河口口门外朝差。潮波的变形与河道地形有密切关系，其中包括河道的长度、河床溯源抬升及河宽收缩等；河口潮差是潮波上溯的原动力。分析了摩阻对涌潮的影响，总结得出摩阻阻碍涌潮的规律。 第4章 在水动力学模型基础上，运用最小二乘的递推算法，引入时变遗忘因子μ(k+1)实时跟踪模型中时变参数的变化，对模型离散系数进行实时修正，提出了一维非恒定流与最小二乘法耦合的洪水实时预报模型，并应用于长江干流宜昌至螺山段洪水演进计算。对长江干流宜昌至螺山河段1998年汛期洪水和1996年洪水进行复演，并与原水动力学模型计算结果进行比较。结果表明改进后的耦合模型能很好地反映该河段洪水演进情况，预报精度较原一维非恒定流模型有很大提高。 第5章 对全文进行了总结并对以后的工作进行展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent decades, the tidal bore and frequent flood bring serious calamity to people’s life and property, hinder nation’s persistent development. Thesis on the basis of summarizing forefathers and studying the tide, set up one-dimensional tide numerical model. Through simulating bore, the two conditions for tidal bore have been studied. And it has analyzed the roughness rate relation to the tidal bore and drawn some meaningful achievements. As to non-linear hydrology system, one-dimensional hydraulic model for hydrologic forecast has problem on precision, thesis has proposed a real-time forecasting method based on hydraulic model, raising the precision of prediction of the model, and applied the model to the research of the practical problem.Chapter 1 has given the object and aim of study in the paper, summarized the current research situation of tidal bore and flood routing. And the main methods of simulation been and the numerical methods in common use to describe flow movement s have been introduced detailed in the paper.Chapter 2 has set up one-dimensional numerical model to serve for the simulation of tidal bore, which is based on the finite volume method and up-wind scheme. According to some similar characteristics of tidal bore, water jump and dam break, it has been analyzed the precision of one-dimensional model with water-jump calculation and the exact resolving of instantaneously breaking bam. The result showed that the established model is more rational to simulate tide bore.Chapter 3 has analyzed the origin cause of tidal bore through simulating bore with one-dimensional bore model based on the ideal rectangle cross watercourse. The result of calculation indicated that the deformation of tidal wave has close relation to the river topography include length, riverbed of river trace to the source lifting and shrinking river width, these factors have offered the condition for deformation of the tide wave. The tide range is the motive power for tidal wave tracing back in the course. The law that roughness affects alteration of tidal bore was obtained.Chapter 4 has developed a real-time forecasting method coupling hydraulic model of 1D unsteady flow with recursive least squares. The ID unsteady flow model is modified by using the time-variant parameter and revising it dynamically through introducing avariable weighted forgetting factor, that the output of the model can be adjusted for real time forecasting of floods. And applying in the reach from Yichang to Luoshan of the Yangtze River. Based on the relief map of river in 1993, the manning coefficient is calculated, and the flood of 1996 and 1998 has been repeated. Computational result shows that the forecasting accuracy of the new model is much higher than that of the original hydraulics model of ID unsteady flow. The method developed is effective for flood forecasting, and its reliability has been tested.Chapter 5 has sum up the whole paper and prospect further research work.更多还原