【作者】 陈永红；

【导师】 黄燕君；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 金融学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以我国当前的资本外逃问题作为研究对象。九十年代以来，我国存在着相当复杂的严重的资本外逃。跨入新世纪，虽然我国的国际收支表现为资本净流入，但是，我国的资本外逃形势依然比较严峻。 我国的资本外逃问题，在国内外相关的学术研究成果已有不少，以往的研究都局限于90年代末期。针对当前资本外逃所表现出来的一些新特征、新趋势、新方式，尤其是进入2002年以来，以投机为目的的境外“热钱”大量涌入我国，这在一定程度上掩盖了我国资本外逃问题依然严重的现实，造成了资本外逃明显下降的假象。因此，我认为，对当前我国的资本外逃问题进行全新的深入研究，具有非常重要的现实意义。 本文研究的主要目的在于重新认识当前我国资本外逃的客观现实，从而纠正学术届对当前资本外逃形势的错误认识，并通过深入研究，全面揭示当前我国资本外逃中的一些新问题，提出有针对性的政策建议。 本文的主要内容包括六个部分：(1)资本外逃的定义、当前我国资本外逃的主要特征；(2)我国资本外逃规模的重新估算(1990年—2002年)及资本外逃对我国经济的影响；(3)跨境洗钱与资本外逃；(4)人民币境外流通与人民币资本外逃；(5)境外投资与资本外逃；(6)当前我国资本外逃的经济影响因素分析及治理对策建议。 通过各部分深入研究和分析，本文主要得出这样的结论：当前我国的资本外逃依然具有相当的规模，2000年资本外逃达到创记录的882亿美元，2002年依然有608亿美元的规模，如此巨额的资本外逃对我国经济已经造成极为不利的负面影响；跨境洗钱、境外投资和人民币直接外逃是当前我国资本外逃主要的三种新方式；造成我国资本外逃的两个主要因素是国家对外资实行的各种优惠政策待遇和长期外汇管制导致的外汇供不应求;短期内，加强金融监管可以有效抑制资本外逃，长期内，必须从改革外汇管理体制、放松外汇管制和逐步缩小内外资差别待遇、实行真正的“国民待遇”这两个方面来治理资本外逃。 本文的主要创新之处在于:对资本外逃给出了广义和狭义两种定义;运用科学合理的方法对我国当前的资本外逃规模进行重新估算;从跨境洗钱、人民币外逃、境外投资三个角度深入分析当前资本外逃的新方式;通过计量模型分析资本外逃的主要影响因素并据以给出合理的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The article probes into the problem of capital flight in China, which has been rather serious and complex since the 1990s. When coming into the new century, the state of capital flight is still severe, while balance of payments in China keeps net capital inflow.Although much academic work has been done in this area of capital flight, most of them focus mainly on that before the 1990s. However, in the recent years, there comes out new characters, new trends and new patterns of China’s capital flight. Especially, since 2002, foreign "hot money" aiming at speculation swarmed into our country, which causes the phantasm that capital flight declines obviously, with the still serious situation of capital flight covered. Therefore, it’s very meaningful to study in deep on the current capital flight situation in china.The main purpose of the article is, on the one hand, to rectify the misunderstanding among academic circle of the current situation of China’s capital flight; and, on the other hand, to expatiate the new problems and put forward pertinent measures.The article is composed of the following six parts: 1 the definition of capital flight and its main characters in China recently; 2 re-evaluation of the scale of capital flight in China(1990-2002) and its effect on macro-economy; 3 cross-border money washing and capital flight; 4 RMB circulation abroad and capital flight; 5 investment abroad and capital flight; 6 analysis of economic factors and pertinent measures for capital flight problem in China.The article draws the following conclusions: Capital flight in China at present still possesses a great scale. For example, capital flight in 2000 reaches a record 82.2 billion dollars and still 60.8 billion in 2002. Thegreat capital flight has caused terribly adverse negative effect on China’s economy. Money washing, investment abroad and direct RMB flight is the three new ways of capital flight in China at present. The two main factors attributing to China’s capital flight are various preferential policies in foreign capital and demand exceeds supply of foreign exchange caused by long-term foreign exchange control. In the short term, strengthening financial regulation can restrain capital flight effectively. In the long term, we should administer capital flight in two ways: one is to reform foreign exchange management system and loosen foreign exchange control the other is to reduce the discriminating practices between foreign capital and native gradually and execute genuine "national treatment".The main innovative points in this dissertation are: The definition of both the broad-sense and the narrow-sense concepts for capital fight; The re-evaluation of the scale of capital flight of China using scientific rational means; analyzing thoroughly the new patterns of current capital flight from three aspects: cross-border money washing, RMB flight and investment abroad; analyzing the main influencing factors through econometrical model and putting forward reasonable countermeasures.更多还原