80年代以来中国对外贸易对中国GDP影响的考察

【作者】 陈彬；

【导师】 杜玉兰；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来，我国对外贸易发展迅速，对外贸易规模不断扩大，推动了我国的经济增长。今天，当我们重新审视各国经济增长所面临的大环境时，会发现我们生活在一个与过去截然不同的世界。中国的经济发展进入了更加开放的国际竞争时代，同时也面临着更为激烈的挑战。随着经济一体化和全球化趋势的不断深入，作为世界第四大贸易国的中国其对外贸易对经济的影响应会越来越大，贸易对经济增长影响的问题引起了国内外学者的广泛关注，因此对我国对外贸易对经济增长的作用进行实证分析具有重要的理论意义和实际意义。 本文以经济增长理论为依据，在系统回顾中国对外贸易的发展情况及外贸体制、战略演变历程的基础上，通过大量的数据，对对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系展开较为详实的定性分析研究，考查了进口、出口等时间序列的平稳性，同时运用协整理论，对出口和进口贸易与经济增长之间关系进行JOHANSEN协整检验，得出结论：中国的经济增长与出口、进口之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系，长期内对外贸易对经济增长的促进作用显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening of China, foreign trade is increased rapidly year by year. It has made great contribution to the Chinese economic growth. Today, when we face to the new environment, we can find we are in a different world. Economic globalization is the notable feature of this world, and foreign trade is one of the main ways that bring China into the world economy. We must stand ready to seize new opportunities and meet new challenges .Thanks to the further globalization trend of economy, the role of foreign trade is more and more important, so we must take a more active stance in opening ourselves wider to the outside world, and resort to more effective measures in an effort to promote the expansion of foreign trade.Based on a lot of theories, this paper briefly reviews the development of Chinese foreign trade and discusses the history of the reform of our foreign trade system. We apply statistical analytical method to prove the export and import trade’ influences to the Chinese economic growth and use the theory of cointegration to text the relation between the foreign trade and the economic growth . It draws conclusions that foreign trade can promote the economic growth in a long-term. On the basis, according to the Chinese present condition, this paper appoints some advices in order to enhance the long-term contribution that the foreign trade makes on the growth of economy.更多还原