【作者】 彭楚澾；

【导师】 谢新连；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着国民经济的持续发展，我国对原油的需求呈现出快速增长的态势，然而我国原油产量难以满足日益增长的需求，巨大的供需缺口只能通过进口来弥补。我国的原油进口主要依赖于船舶运输，随着原油进口量的不断增加，给我国原油进口运输船队带来了发展的契机，同时，我国从事原油进口运输企业也认识到合理地进行船队规划，提高船队综合实力，保持竞争优势的重要性，因而有必要对我国原油进口运输船队的发展进行研究和探讨。 本论文首先介绍了目前世界原油市场中的生产和消费状况，总结了影响原油消费的主要因素；在对中国原油生产、需求市场调查的基础上，分析进出口状况，找出我国原油产量和消费的矛盾，指出大量进口原油势在必然。归纳了我国原油进口的主要航线，并介绍主要原油装卸港的港口情况及中国原油进口运输企业的船队基本状况。 然后，根据历史数据，采用经济预测的定量方法对我国原油进口量进行了预测，并结合定性分析方法，总结出我国原油进口运输市场的总体形势；采用线性规划法，将船队规划问题简化为线性规划问题，以年总营运费用最小为目标函数建立船队规划模型。根据运量的预测，结合港口、航线的实际状况和发展趋势，利用计算机来研究我国原油进口运输船队的发展规模和结构。 最后，在提出的我国原油进口运输船队整体发展规划初步方案的基础上，进行多方案的敏感性分析，探讨影响我国原油进口运输船队发展的主要因素，分析不确定性因素对船队规划结果的影响程度，并相应指出了我国原油进口运输船队发展的规模和方向，以期为我国从事原油进口运输的企业提供参考和指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the sustained development of national economy, there is an increasing demand for crude oil in our country. However, the supply of crude oil can hardly meet the increasing demand. This gap can only be closed through input. The constant increase of the amount of imported crude oil brings opportunities to our crude oil imported fleets. At the same time, the shipping companies engaged in transportation of imported crude oil have gradually become aware of the importance of rational fleets deployment, improvement of the comprehensive strength of fleets and keeping the advantage position of enterprises. So it is necessary to research into the development of fleets carrying imported crude oil in our country.In this thesis, first of all, the production and the consumption of crude oil market in the world are introduced and the main factors that affect oil consumption are summarized; On the basis of complete investigation into the crude oil production and demand market in China, the author found out the contradiction between oil supply and consumption and then pointed out that the large amount of crude oil imported is inevitable; The main sea routes of crude oil imported are summed up, and the conditions of main loading and discharging ports and fleets of carrying imported crude oil in China are introduced.Secondly, according to historical statistics the prediction of the amount of imported crude oil of our country is conducted using quantitative method of advanced technology for economic prediction and the trend of imported crude oil market are summarized using qualitative analysis method together. The problem of fleet deployment is simplified into linear programming adopting linear programming technique and the fleet deployment model is established. In this model the annual total operating cost minimization is an objective function. According to the prediction of transport volume, together with the actual circumstances and the tendency of ports and routes, the development scale and structure of fleets carrying imported crude oil is analyzed and discussed by using computer.Lastly, on the basic of the initial scheme of the development of fleets carrying imported crude oil, sensitivity analysis of several schemes is achieved. The scale and direction of fleets carrying imported crude oil are put forwarded in the hope of providing reference and guidance to the shipping companies engaged in transportation of imported crude oil.更多还原