冀西北间山盆地区土地利用/土地覆被变化及其情景分析

【作者】 刘军会；

【导师】 王卫；

【作者基本信息】 河北师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 区域土地利用／土地覆被变化不仅是全球环境变化研究的一个重要方面，还对区域可持续发展和区域土地管理具有重要意义，因而成为现代地理学的前沿领域之一。近几十年来，由于过垦、过牧和过度樵采等不合理的土地利用方式盛行，冀西北间山盆地区的土地利用和土地覆被发生了显著变化；这些变化对该地区荒漠化、干旱化等生存环境的逆向演变起着重要的加速作用。 利用1987年和2000年两期Landsat TM影像，采用遥感和GIS相结合的技术方法，结合相关社会经济统计资料，以冀西北间山盆地为例进行了土地利用／土地覆被的动态变化监测和分析研究，分析了近13年来该地区土地利用／土地覆被变化的趋势，探讨了影响土地利用／土地覆被变化的驱动力因子，并在此基础上分别对研究区未来10年土地利用变化格局的马尔可夫情景、规划情景和理想情景进行了预测，分析了三种情景下土地利用／土地覆被变化的共同之处及差异。研究结果对冀西北间山盆地区可持续发展和为决策者完善对该地区土地利用的动态管理提供了科学依据。 本论文创新点：(1)马尔可夫模型应用于该地区LUCC研究。(2)对该地区未来10年土地利用／土地覆被变化进行了三种情景分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land use and land cover change (LUCC) not only plays an important role in global environmental change, but also has an important significance in sustainable development and land management of a region. So it becomes one of the frontiers of modem geography. Because of the prevalent land use mode of over-cultivation, overgrazing and deforestation in the past few decades, land use and land cover has undergone great changes in the Basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains. And these changes have accelerated the converse change of living environment, such as desertification and drought.This paper takes the Basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains for example, makes the dynamic change monitor and analytical research of land use/cover using Landsat TM data of 1987 and 2000 based on remote sensing and GIS technology, integrating with statistics data of society and economy. The tendency of land use/cover change in this region during thirteen years is analyzed and the driving force factors that influence LUCC were studied. On this basis, Markov Scenario, Planning Scenario and Ideal Scenario are forecasted in the future ten years in the Basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains. And the similarities and differences of land use/cover in three situations are also analyzed .The research result has provided scientific base for the sustainable development of the basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains and the perfection of land use dynamic management of the area for the administrators.The innovation of the thesis is as follows: applying Markov model to study land use/cover change of the study area; three scenarios are explored from 2000 to 2010 in the Basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains.更多还原