人地关系协调意义下气候保护的模拟研究及系统原型开发

【作者】 郑一萍；

【导师】 王铮；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 气候变化及其对经济和社会发展影响的问题正成为当前世界各国政府和科学家们所关注的重大问题（IPCC，2001）。如何在经济发展和气候保护之间找到一个平衡点，既不以牺牲气候来发展经济，也不以严重牺牲经济的发展来保护气候，这个问题直接关系到各个国家的可持续发展，从而引起了各国学术界广泛的研究，也成为了地球系统科学及地球信息科学的热点问题。 纵观目前气候保护的研究工作，普遍有两个明显的特点：第一、气候保护的政策手段，集中在增加碳税，以期减少排放。第二，基本的模型结构大多数是基于经济一般均衡的。这种研究在经济学框架内当然合理，但是气候变化是一个地球系统科学问题，在地球系统科学框架内，需要考虑人地关系协调。基于人地关系协调学说，在本文中我们立足于这样的思想：首先，除去经济手段我们还可以用地学方式改变地球的碳排放结构。其次，市场分析的一般均衡分析模式，不能很好反映经济增长过程，难于反映人地关系协调的主要手段——技术变化，因此对于气候保护这样的长程问题，需要新的创新研究。 本文是在包含CO₂减排宏观经济影响模拟的连贳状态型模型和包含了内生技术进步的Demeter模型上，结合新经济增长理论和人地关系协调理论重新构建起来的，它从整体上可以分为三个模块，分别为：基于新经济增长理论的宏观经济模块、包含不确定性的气候变化模块，以及人地关系协调意义下的决策选择模块。文章综合了气候变化、社会经济、能源消费等多个领域，着重考察的是人地关系协调意义下，各种气候保护政策，包括增汇型、能源替代型和生产型CO₂排放控制政策的实施对中国国家经济安全的影响。 围绕人地关系协调意义下气候保护的含义和方法，本项研究主要完成了下列新的探索： 1) 增汇机制的经济模型化：本文对气候保护中碳汇的研究做出了总结和地理分析，根据总结分析，确定增加碳汇的经济成本模型，并将它们内生化为经济系统要素，从而发展现有的气候保护分析经济增长模型。 2) 模型包含内生技术进步分析和对能源替代型气候保护政策的模拟：本文依据人地关系协调思想，发展了能源替代型气候保护政策，并将技术进步内生化运用于对能源替代型气候保护政策分析的模拟中。 3) 不确定气候变化条件下的气候保护风险分析：我们在气候变化因素中引入了不确定因素，研究了气候—经济系统对这些不确定因子的敏感性。 由于人地关系协调意义下的气候保护问题涉及到自然气候系统、社会经济系统等各领域，并且包含多种不同的气候保护政策，可以设置非常多的气候保护方案，为了计算方便且人地关系协调意义下气候保护的模拟研究及系统原型开发摘要准确，我们还采用面向对象的组件式技术建立了“中国气候保护决策支持系统”。系统的实现主要分为二个主要部分:可视化输入输出、模型计算和数据存取。其中，对于可视化的系统图形界面（GUI）和模型计算、显示、统计等功能的开发，采用了面向对象的犯位Windows开发平台一Borland Delphi 6.0;数据存取则采用了较为常见、操作简单方便的桌面关系型数据库一Microsoft Access 2000，并采用ADO数据存取技术作为数据库与应用系统间的数据引擎。 最后基于这个系统，我们采用情景分析法，分别通过选择不同的气候保护政策和对控制率及其组合的调整，设置了六种模拟情景，针对中国实行不同的气候保护政策对国家宏观经济的影响问题做出模拟，通过模拟，我们发现，从对经济和社会福利的影响来看，选择增汇型和能源替代型气候保护比较适合，政策实施带来的经济影响不是很大，在中国国情所能承受的范围之内，不会引起经济的不安全，也能实现人地关系的协调发展;从实现难易程度来看，将二种政策同时实施，每年分别实行4%的增汇型和能源替代型CO:排放控制率，以及0.2%的生产型CO:排放控制率是最适合的，能在相对较低的投入下实现排放控制目标，因此本文推荐这个方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate change and its’ impact to macroeconomic and the social development have been the focus of governments and scientists all over the world (IPCC, 2001). How to find the balance between the economic growth and climate protection? That is, we can’t immolate the climate for economic growth, and also can’t immolate the economic growth greatly for climate protection. This issue is related directly with sustainable development, so the academia of each country has developed a lot of corresponding research.When we compare the research work of climate protection all sidely, there are two obvious characteristics: First, the strategic method of climate protection is focused on increasing carbon tax to reduce emission. Second, most of the model structures are usually based on economic general equivalence. This kind of research is rational in economic frame. However, considering that climate change is a geographical systematic scientific issue, we need to involve the Man-Land relationship’s coordination in the research. Based on the theory of the Man-Land relationship’s coordination, we will establish such a kind of idea in the paper: First, besides the economic strategy, we also can try to change the structure of carbon emission through the geographical method; Second, the general equivalence mode of market analysis can not reflect rationally the process of economic growth, and is hard to reflect the key instrument realizing the Man-Land relationship’s coordination, technical change. So we need innovative research for such a long-range problem of climate protection.The paper is based on the State-contingent model, which contains the analysis of carbon abatement’s macroeconomic impact, and the Demeter model, which contains the endogenous technology change. The model we build combines the theory of new-economic growth and the theory of the Man-Land relationship’s coordination, and it is made up of three sub models: macroeconomic model based on the theory of new-economic growth, climate model including uncertainty and decision-making model reflecting the Man-Land relationship’s coordination. The paper integrates a lot of fields, such as the climate change, the social economy and energy consumption, and its emphases is to evaluate the impact of various climate protection strategies to Chinese macroeconomic security and social welfare. Here, various climate protection strategies involve increasing carbon sink, using substituting energy and controlling the carbon emission during production.Based on the implication and methods of climate protection considering the Man-Landrelationship’s coordination, this research has mainly finished the following new points: Economic modeling of the mechanism about increasing carbon sink:The paper makes a summarization and geographic analysis about the research of carbon sink as a kind of method of climate protection. Then, based on this, we decide the model of economic cost increasing carbon sink, and make those endogenous as the factors of economic system. The model contains the analysis to endogenous technology change and the modeling of climate protection using substituting energy:Based on the idea of the Man-Land relationship’s coordination, the paper develops the climate protection policy using substituting energy, and applies the endogenous technology change to the modeling of the climate protection policy using substituting energy. Analyzing the risk of climate protection under the climate change’s uncertainty:We add the uncertain factor to the factors of climate change, and evaluate the sensitivity of these uncertain factors to the climate-economic system.Because the issue of climate protection based on the idea of the Man-Land relationship’s coordination comes down to natural climate system and social economic system, and it contains many various kinds of climate protection policies, so we can set up a lot of corresponding scenarios. For the computation’s convenience and exactness, we build "Chinese climate protection’s Decision-making Supporti更多还原