【作者】 杜江；

【导师】 欧名豪； 姜道远；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 农业长期以来在许多国家都受到很强的政府干预，导致这种干预的原因包括稳定和增加农民收入，保障粮食安全，保障国民经济其它部门的发展等等。这些理由往往是由于社会和政治方面的考虑，而非出于纯粹的经济方面的考虑，我国也不例外。 考虑到我国人口基数过大，粮食安全问题一直是政府和学者关注的焦点。由于研究方法与视角的不同，学者之间的观点也有较大的分歧与争论。目前的研究大多集中于全国范围内的粮食总量考虑，很少有人研究区域差异因素所导致的区域粮食安全政策也应有所不同。尤其对于我国来说，东、中、西部地区的自然条件、经济状况和人口分布差异很大，各地区之间的粮食安全和耕地保护政策理应有所不同。针对区域特点分析相应的政策，有利于区域之间的相互协作，从而带来粮食安全成本的节约，促进耕地资源的合理利用。 当前区域性粮食安全对全国粮食安全至关重要，尤其经济发达地区将是实现我国粮食安全的重点地区。一方面，经济发达地区既是粮食需求增长最快的地区，也是粮食供给最不稳定的地区。另一方面，经济发达地区的经济增长模式将会对我国中西部地区产生示范效应。如果经济发达地区在粮食安全问题上不保持足够谨慎，将会对粮食主产区产生不小的消极影响，最终影响全国的粮食安全水平。本文将以江苏省为例，阐述经济发达地区粮食安全与合理的耕地保护政策。 首先，本文对入世与我国粮食安全的关系进行分析。入世以后一方面将打破我国粮食流通的国有垄断体制以提升效率水平。另一方面，入世意味着减少关税和非关税壁垒，从而使WTO成员国之间资源配置更大程度体现它们各自要素禀赋和比较优势结构。对于我国来说，具有土地密集型特征的粮食，其进口将可能会较快上升，而劳动密集型的蔬菜、水果等农产品，其出口量将上升。本文从粮食与粮食安全的概念入手，分析入世对我国农业带来的冲击，并分别从粮食进口、国内支持政策两方面具体阐述入世与粮食安全的关系。 其次，分析了入世与耕地保护的关系。本文认为入世将导致的粮食进口，我国进口一部分粮食可以视为进口一部分耕地，有利于在全球范围内优化耕地资源的配置。本章从入世对耕地保护带来的冲击入手，分别从农产品贸易、绿色壁垒和生态体系建设三方面阐述入世与拼地保护的关系. 第三，从实证角度出发，分析江苏省拼地资源状况，粮食安全状况，江苏省已从旅食调出省份变为基本平衡省.采用灰色预浏、主成分分析等方法，研究江苏省的拼地资源、旅食安全趁势，对影响根食生产的因素进行分析，并对江苏省未来时期的旅食雷求1、拼地底线进行佑算预浏，对加入盯O后经济发达地区的拼地保护政策提出政策建议.更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture has been strongly interfered by government for a long time. The reason of interference is consist of stability and increasing fanner’s income, support food security, support the development of national economy. These reasons are usually analysis on politics and society, not on the economy, especially for China.The problem of food security is the focus of scholar and government usually care. Because of the difference between research method and angle, the viewpoints of scholars are divergent and controversy. The researches at this time are mostly focus on food gross in the range of countrywide. Few people study on the regional policy of food security induced by regional differences. Especially for our country, the environment, economy and people distributing in east, central section and west are divergent, therefore, the policy of food security should be different. Analyzing policy aiming at regional character will be propitious to the cooperation of region and saving the cost of food security, promoting the cultivated land use in reason.Currently, regional food security is important to countrywide food security, especially the developed region. On the one side, developed region is the region that food demand increasing quickly and also the unstable food provide. On the other side, the mode of economy increase in developed region will lead the way for central and western part in our country. If developed region do not be cautious to the problem of food security, it will lead to negative effect on the main food productive region, and affect the level of countryside food security. This paper will study the case of Jiangsu province, setting forth the relation between food security in developed region and rational policy of cultivated land protection.Firstly, this paper analyse the relationship of food security and entry into WTO. On one side it will break the monopoly system of food circulation. On the other hand entry into WTO means reduce tariff and tariff wall. This will make the resources scheme incarnate embody the factor gift and the frame of compare advantage. As for our country, the import of food which is land-dense characterized will rise up, the export of food which islabor-dense characterized such as vegetable and fruit will rise up. This paper will study the concept of food and food security and analyse the impact after entry into WTO, and set forth the relationship of food security and entry into WTO from the aspect of food import and domestic support policy.Secondly, this paper research the relationship of cultivated land protection and entry of WTO. This paper considers that the entry of WTO will lead to import of food. We import food can be equal to import cultivated land. It will optimaize the scheme of cultivated land resourses in word area. This paper starts from the impact of enry of WTO and sets forth the relation of farm product trade, green policy and the system of zoology construction.Lastly, this paper starts from the demonstration and analyse the status of cultivated land resourses and food security. Now Jiangsu province has changed from food provision to food self-support. Adopting grey forecast and Principal Component Analysis research the trend of cultivated land resources and food security. Analyze the factor of food production and computing the demand of food and base-line of cultivated land. At last, bring forward the cultivated land protection policy in developed region after the entry into WTO.更多还原