【作者】 吕韬；

【导师】 刁承泰；

【作者基本信息】 西南师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 经济发展与城市化进程之间互动关系的研究是协调社会经济全面发展的重大课题之一。城市化进程不仅决定于经济增长的数量，更决定于经济发展的质量，所以从经济发展的质量角度研究其对城市化发展的支撑力度，对于保证城市化持续、健康的发展和促进社会经济全面发展具有十分重要的意义。结合国土资源部“重庆江津市土地利用总体规划修编试点”课题，论文对此进行了实证研究，着重分析江津市经济发展的质量对城市化发展支撑力度的大小，并对目标年的城市化水平进行了预测。全文共分为五个部分。 第一部分，简述论文选题背景和意义，对论文研究重点进行文献综述。在此基础上，简要阐述论文的思路和方法，并就论文中必要的问题进行了说明。 第二部分，阐述了部分与本文关系密切的城市化基本理论，这是全文研究的理论基础和分析预测的依据。这一部分主要分析了城市化的基本概念，特别强调城市化概念应是质量与数量的统一；根据研究对象的客观实际对城市化水平的测度确定了计算方法，作为全篇分析预测的基础；同时，对城市化动力机制以及发展规律和理论作了阐述，主要强调生产力发展及其水平是决定城市发展和城市化水平的根本原因，这是本文主要从经济发展质量的角度确定城市化水平的理论依据。 仅济玄展与城市化健稚共系研究—雌生庆仁峰市苟例 第三部分，首先概述江津市社会经济发展的外在环境和内部环境，并简要介绍了江津市自然条件、经济发展历程、人口和就业方面;其次，分析和评价了江津市城市化现状。 第四部分，阐述社会经济发展与城市发展和城市化水平之间的相互关系，这是全文研究分析的核心部分。城市发展和城市化水平提高必须是质量与数量的统一，相应地它也必然需要质量并举的经济发展来支撑。因此，本文在预测江津市未来经济总量和人口总量的基础上，分别从经济增长、经济发展和城市化成本保障三个方面分析论证江津市的经济发展对城市化发展的支撑力度以及在目标年能达到的城市化水平。根据城市化发展的阶段性规律，将江津市与世界和中国城市化发展历程所表现出的经济增长与城市化水平之间的关系进行对比分析，得出江津市经济发展与城市化发展也遵循互动发展的共性。从经济发展质量的角度分析，本文认为城市化发展主要受经济、社会和技术进步等三方面影响。故选择产值结构、就业结构和劳动生产率三个分别主要反映经济、社会和技术进步的质量指标，应用城市化理论和经济理论分析预测了江津市城市发展和城市化水平，并对结果进行综合，最后确定出江津市目标年的城市化水平。从城市化经济成本角度，对江津市实现预测的城市化水平在资金投入方面是否能得到保障进行分析和论证。 第五部分，结论与讨论。通过全文的分析和论述，我们可以得出以下主要结论: 1.江津市社会经济发展势头良好，预计到目标年2015年GDP可达293.05亿元，总人口达151.54万人。 2.从经济增长数量的角度论证了江津市具有与世界和中国城市化进程共性特点。在此基础上，着重从经济发展质量的角度，分析了产业结构变迁、就业结构调整和劳动生产率提高与城市化的关系。 首先，在分析了产业结构发展对城市化作用的基础上，采用结构变动模式对经济结构的演变进行拟合，得出产业结构和经济发展的函数表达关系。以此，预测未来的城市化水平为58.56%。 其次，论证分析了就业结构变化和劳动生产率的提高对劳动力的需求和对城市化的作用。根据江津市市情选取参数拟合模型，预测江津市未来的就业结构和劳动力数量，农业部门和非农部门的劳动力就业人口数量比约1:3，相应城市化水平为56.82%。结合不同角度的分析，综合确定江津市城市化水平为56.82一58.56%，城市化人口将达到企 仅济成展与城市化进稚关东研究—雌咬庆仁峰市毛州86.11—88.74万人。 最后，从城市化成本保障角度，根据江津市城市化所需要的狭义经济成本(10.41万元/人)计算了实现未来城市化目标所需要的经济投入，进而论证了江津市必须保持一个适度的投资水平和增速，并注重投资结构和投资效益，才能实现城市化发展目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 As all know, it is one of the important subjects of the socio-economic development that the mutual relationship between economic development and the urbanization process. The urbanization process is decided not only by the quantity of economic growth, but also by the quality of economic development From the viewpoint of economic development, it is very important to study the rate of support for urbanization development to ensure sustained development of urbanization and to promote the all-round development of socio-economy. Based on the subject of "The experiment revision of the integrated planning of land use in Chongqing, Jiangjin City" arranged by Ministry of Land and Resources, the rate of support of economic development for urbanization development is analyzed emphatically and the level of urbanization is forecasted in Jiangjin City in 2015.The thesis consists of five parts:In part one, the background and significance of the thesis and a documentary summary of the focal points are stated simply. On the basis, the clue and method and essential problems are illustrated.In part two, the basic principles of urbanization concerning the thesis are set forth,which are both the theoretical basis and the foundation of forecast. In this part, the fundamental concept of urbanization is analyzed mainly, and the unity of quality and quantity of urbanization is emphasized especially. The method of calculation of urbanization is determined in accordance with the objective facts, which is the basis of analysis and forecast. Meanwhile, the dynamic mechanism, laws and theories of urbanization are expounded, and it is emphasized that urban development and the level of urbanization are decided by the development and level of productive forces, which is the theoretical foundation of analysis from the viewpoint of the quality of economic development.In part three, the external and internal environments of socio-economic development are summarized, and nature, the process of economic development, population and employment in Jiangjin City are introduced simply. And then, the actuality of urbanization is analyzed and assessed for actual foundation in the ensuing parts.Part four is the kernel one, in which the mutual relationship between socio-economic development and urban development and the level of urbanization is expounded. Urban development and the improvement of the level of urbanization must be incarnated in the unity of quality and quantity, which is surely supported by economic development. Hence, on the basis of the forecasted scales of economy and population, the rate of supports of economic development for urban development is analyzed and demonstrated from the three respective aspects of economic growth, economic development and the economic cost of urbanization* and the level of urbanization in Jiangjin City is forecasted. According to the laws of urbanization development in different phases, the thesis confirms that the mutual relationship between socio-economic development and urban development in Jiangjin City has the common characters just as same as in the world and China. Urbanization development is mainly influenced by economy, social and technological progress from the viewpoint of the quality of economic development So, the structure of production value, employment structure and labor productivity are selected, which respectively indicate economy, society and technological progress. And then the thesis applies urbanization theories andwestern economics to synthetically forecast the level of urbanization in Jiangjin City in the object year. Finally, from the viewpoint of the economic cost of urbanization, it is analyzed whether the investment is adequate to realize the forecasted level of urbanization or not.Part five is conclusion and discussion. According to the above-mentioned analyses and demonstration, we can arrive at the following major conclusions:It is estimated that GDP will reach 29305 million yuan and Jiangjin City will have a population of 1515.4 thousand in the更多还原