【作者】 张华；

【导师】 张勃；

【作者基本信息】 西北师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用／覆盖变化是全球变化的主要原因和响应，也是与可持续发展密切相关的课题。土地利用／覆盖变化模拟是预测未来土地利用／覆盖变化的重要方法。本文将国际上先进的CLUE-S模型应用到位于黑河流域中上游的张掖市，模拟该地区的土地利用／覆盖变化。 国内对干旱区土地利用／覆盖变化模拟的研究尚无先例，且张掖市是我国西北干旱区的重要组成部分，处在我国三大自然地理区的过渡位置，为环境演化的敏感区和生态脆弱带，土地覆盖的演化过程和机制有其不同于东部地区的特殊规律，所以张掖市土地利用／覆盖变化模拟的研究对干旱区现代环境变化的人为影响研究有着极为重要的理论和实际意义。 本文的模拟时段为2001—2020年。研究区域的总面积为35306km~2。模型采用2000年黑河流域TM图象解译的土地利用图，将其转化为grid格式，每个grid代表面积为1km~2，将土地利用类型合并为：(1)耕地，(2)林地，(3)草地，(4)水域，(5)城镇用地，(6)未利用地。用回归分析的方法，选择了对该地区土地利用／覆盖变化有重要贡献的7种驱动因子：与城市的距离、与河流的距离、与道路的距离、人口密度、海拔、坡度、坡向。用Arcview空间分析的方法建立驱动力文件，用SPSS10.0的logistic regression功能分析每种驱动力的权重(B值)，建立logistic方程，并将其输入到模型中。模型将水资源作为约束机制，建立了3种可利用水资源总量的情景假设，即模拟该地区可利用水资源总量分别为18×10~8m~3，26.5×10~8m~3，35×10~8m~3时的土地利用／覆盖变化。 模拟初年6种土地利用类型占总面积的比重分别为，(1)耕地：10.45％；(2)林地：10.07％；(3)草地：32.36％；(4)水域：2.17％；(5)城镇用地：1.05％；(6)未利用地：43.90％。到模拟末年，在三种情景假设下，各种土地利用类型面积分别变为，(1)耕地：6.47％，8.13％，9.57％；(2)林地：15.70％，23.18％，33.86％：(3)草地：33.47％，36.04％，36.73％；(4)水域：2.17％，3.30％，2.22％；(5)城镇用地：1.05％，1.25％，1.67％；(6)未利用地：41.14％，28.11％，15.96％。 模拟结果显示：(1)在三种情景假设下，耕地的面积都在减少，耕地面积的减少量与水资源总量呈负相关，即水资源总量越大，耕地面积的减少量就越少。(2)林地面积的增加量非常大，可利用水资源总量越大，林地面积的增加就越多，林地面积与可利用水资源总量呈明显的正相关。(3)草地面积在三种情景下，也在增加，且水资源总量越大，草地面积增加的越多，增加量没有林地大，但与水资源总量也呈正相关。(4)在三种情景假设下，水域面积的变化都不明显，情景1下，水域面积没有变化，情景2，情景3下，水域面积有少量增加。(5)城镇用地在情景1下没有变化，情景2下增加了19.5%，情景3下增加了59.19%，看见城镇用地面积与水量也呈正相关。(6)未利用地，由于其他土地利用类型多呈增加趋势，未利用地面积持续减少，且减少量很大，三种情景下分别为: 6 .28%，35.98%，63.65%。 用ROC方法对模型进行检验，结果显示，各种土地类型的拟和度分别为，耕地:0.792，林地:0.841，草地:0.825，水域:0.798，城镇用地:0.779，未利用地:0.902。拟和度均大于0.75，拟和度较好。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land use and land cover change(LUCC), is the main reason and response of globe change, has a closely relation with sustainable development. LUCC modeling is the important way to predict future land use change. This thesis apply the advanced model "CLUE-S", to model land use and land cover change in Zhangye City.There is no precedent to model land use and land cover change of arid region in China. And Zhangye City located in the transition of three physical geographical region of China, is the significant part of North-west arid region, which is the sensitive area and zoological brittle zone. The evolutive process and mechanism of land cover change law is different from east region. Therefore the study of LUCC modeling in Zhangye City has a vital theory and practice meaning.The modeling period is from 2000 to 2020. The study area is 36306 km2.The base map is the land use map from TM image of 2000. Land use type is redivided into 6 types,- (1) Field, (2)Woodland, (3)Grassland?(4)Water area, (5)City and Town, (6)Unused area. And 7 kinds driving factors, which represent import contribution to LUCC in this area were chosen. They are, distance to city, distance to river, distance to road, population density, altitude, slope, and slope aspect, which is produced with Arcview spatial analysis means. Then the weighting coefficient ) of every land use was analysed use with SPSS 10.0. Modeling builds 3 kinds scenarios according to water resource restriction, namely modeling LUCC when available water resource is 18x108m3, 26.5x108m3and 35x108m3 respectively in this region.Each proportion of 6 kinds land use types in initial year of modeling respectively is (1) Field: 10.45%, (2) Woodland: 10.07%, (3) Grassland: 32.36%, (4) Water area: 2.17%, (5) City and Town: 1.05%, (6) Unused area: 43.90%o And to the end year of modeling, the proportion of 6 land use types in three scenarios respectively is (1)Field: 6.47%, 8.13%, 9. 57% (2)Woodland: 15. 70%, 23.18%, 33. 86% (3) Grassland: 33. 47%, 36. 04%, 36. 73% (4) Water area: 2.17%, 3. 30%, 2. 22% (5) City and town: 1. 05%, 1. 25%, 1. 67% (6) Unused area: 41.14%, 28.11%, 15. 96%.The modeling result are (1) With 3 scenarios, the area of field decreases all, the reduced quantity is negative correlation with available water resource, namely the more available water resource, the more the area reduced quantity (2) The increasing of woodland area isvery large, woodland area and available water resource are in positive correlation . (3) Grassland also increases in three scenarios, and the more available water resource ,the more the increasing area, although the increasing area is less than woodland ,the increasing area and available water resource still are in positive correlation. (4) The change of water area is not visible .There is no change in scenario 1 ,and a little increasing in scenario 2 and scenario 3. (5) City and Town don’t change in scenario 1. And increases 19.5% in scenario 2, 59.19% in scenario 3.So the area of city and town also is in positive correlation. (6) The unused area decreases unceasingly. The reducing area is very large. The decreasing rate is 6.28% in scenario 1,35.98% in scenario 2,63.65% in scenario 3.Finally verified the model with ROC(relative operating characteristic) method. Thefitness of every land use type is, field: 0.792, woodland: 0.841, grassland: 0.825, water area: 0.798, city and town: 0.779, unused area: 0.902. The fitness is more than 0.5 of all, the fitness is very good.更多还原