【作者】 谢中华；

【导师】 史道济；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 应用数学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来，赤潮频繁发生，造成了巨大的经济损失。目前大部分文献是关于赤潮发生机理的研究，为了能比较全面的认识赤潮发生的特点，提高赤潮预报的准确性，本文试图用极值理论的方法对赤潮发生的频率进行分析，即求出一个次重现水平，是使得赤潮生物细胞浓度超过这一水平所需发生赤潮的次数，亦即经过次赤潮才有一次超过这一水平。最后建立混合回归模型，对赤潮进行预报。即把一元非线性回归和多元线性回归结合起来，构造一个混合回归模型,这样就减小了模型的残差平方和，从而提高预报的准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the red tide erupted frequently, and caused a great economic loss. At present, most literatures emphasize the academic research on growth mechanism of red tide alga. In order to find out the characters of red tide in detail and improve the precision of forecast, this paper gives some new approaches of dealing with red tide. By the extreme values, we deal with the red tide frequency analysis and get the estimation of T-times red tide level , which is the level once the consistence of red tide alga exceeded on the average in a period of T times. Then we construct a mixed regression model for forecast of red tide. We combine unitary nonlinear regression with multivariate linear regression, it can reduce the error sum of squares of the model and improve the precision of forecast.更多还原