【作者】 侍得广；

【导师】 丰景春；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 各国经济增长与发展历程表明，经济波动是经济增长过程的伴生现象。与宏观经济运行过程的周期波动一样，房地产业在发展过程中也客观存在着周期波动现象。分析房地产周期波动，不但具有理论上的开拓意义，而且也有助于在实践中指导房地产业的健康发展。正视房地产业的周期波动现象，分析房地产周期波动的内在机制和主要影响因素，提出反周期策略，对我国房地产业的健康、稳定发展具有现实的指导意义。 本文对房地产周期波动的研究，由以下三个部分组成。 1、总结、评述了有关经济周期以及房地产周期研究的主要成果，并从实证角度分析了中国房地产周期波动的客观存在。这一方面的内容由前三章构成。第一章简要分析了房地产周期的研究背景、研究意义，并归纳了本文的研究思路和研究方法。第二章综述了国内外研究现状，并对国内外研究成果作了简单的评介。第三章则利用房地产综合景气指数模型，从实证角度分析了房地产周期波动的具体运行过程和主要特征。 2、分析了房地产波动的内在机制和影响因素。在分析和研究房地产周期波动时，既需要回答产生和形成房地产周期波动的内在机制，又需要解剖房地产周期波动的影响因素。这一方面的内容由第四至第七章构成。第四章借鉴经济周期理论的研究方法，提出从外部冲击和内部传导相结合的角度来研究房地产周期波动，分析了影响房地产周期波动的各种经济因素。第五章探讨了政府产业政策对房地产周期波动的影响。第六章分析了金融政策对房地产周期波动的影响。 3、提出推进房地产业稳定发展的政策选择。第七章提出了反周期策略，指出建立房地产预警系统是当前监测房地产业健康发展，并进行宏观调控的良好措施。第八章提出了本文的结论和展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 The experiences of economic growth and development in many countries indicate that economic fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of economic growth. Like macroeconomic , the development of real estate industry also shows a phenomenon of periodic fluctuation . To analyze the cycle of real estate industry , not only has a creative significance in theory , but also can guide the development of real estate industry in practice . As for the healthy and steady development of real estate industry in china, it is of more important practical significance to analyze the internal mechanism and the main external factors that influence the cycle of real estate industry and raise anti-cycle measures.My study on the cycle of real estate industry in this thesis consists of three parts as follows:In the first part of the thesis , I summarize and review the main opinions concerning the cycle of macroeconomic and real estate industry . Then , I substantiate the existence of the cycle of real estate industry in china by positivist research . This part is composed of the first three chapters . In the first chapter , I briefly analyze the background of research , and the thesis of research . In the second chapter , I sum up the train of thought and measures in research in the basis of summarizing the actuality of real estate industry. In the third chapter , I utilize real estate integration boom index model and analyze the specific process and main characteristics of the cycle of real estate industry by positivist research.In the second part of the thesis, I analyze the internal mechanism and the main external factors that influence the cycle of real estate industry . This part consists of chapter 4 to chapter 7 . In the fourth chapter , I analyze the internal mechanism of the cycle of real estate industry from the angle of the combination of external shock and internal conduction , and study the influence of economic variables . In the fifth chapter, I focus on discussing the influences of macroscopical policies on the cycle of real estate industry . In the sixth chapter, I analyze the financial policies .In the third part of the thesis , I raise the anti-cycle strategy and establish early warning system . In the seventh chapter , I raise the anti-cycle strategy and indicate that it is necessary for the Government to establish early warning system . In the eighth chapter, I summarize the whole thesis.更多还原