货币政策有效性研究——兼论对中国的启示和借鉴

【作者】 洪结银；

【导师】 王玉霞；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 西方经济学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 货币政策有效性问题的研究基本上可以划分为以下三个层次：(1)货币对于实体经济有没有影响?如果货币供给变化导致真实宏观经济变量(如实际产出)的变化，则认为货币政策是有效的；如果货币供给仅仅导致名义宏观经济变量的变化(如名义产出，价格水平等)，则认为货币政策是无效的。(2)货币当局如何选择和实施适当的货币政策，才能实现宏观经济目标?这是货币政策实践必须回答的问题，其中主要包括货币政策目标、货币政策工具、货币政策规则等问题的研究。(3)货币政策是如何影响真实经济变量的?主要是对货币政策传导机制的研究，货币政策可能通过各种途径(如利率、汇率、信贷、资产价格等)对总需求的各个组成部分产生影响，最终反映在价格水平的变动上。研究传导机制可以深入细致地分析货币政策扰动对经济变量的影响。 本文共由四章组成。 第一章我们系统分析了不同流派的经济学家对货币政策有效性的观点，总体来说，凯恩斯主义经济学家认为由于工资和价格粘性的存在，货币政策能够起到平抑经济波动的作用，而新古典经济学家则认为货币政策是无效的。我们认为，不同流派的经济学家之所以对货币政策效果的看法不同，根本的原因在于不同流派对价格调整速度的看法不同。 第二章我们对货币政策的操作规则进行了研究，我们首先分析了正统凯恩斯主义和货币主义者之间的关于“相机抉择”和“单一规则”之争，接着我们分析了动态不一致问题，提出政策规则对我国实施货币政策的参考意义。 第三章我们研究了货币政策的传导机制问题，货币政策主要通过货币渠道和信贷渠道进行传导。通过分析，我们认为目前信贷渠道是我国货币政策的主要传导渠道，并提出进一步提高我国货币政策的传导效果的建议。 第四章我们对西方发达国家的货币政策的中介目标的演变规律进行了研究，在此基础上，对我国当前货币政策的中介目标进行了分析，指出货币供应内容摘要量作为目前我国货币政策的中介目标的合理性以及通货膨胀目标将会成为我国货币中介目标调整的新方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The research of the efficiency question of monetary policy can be divided into three following levels basically: (1) Can money influence the real economy? If the change of money supplies leads to real macroeconomic variables (such as real output) change, then monetary policy is considered effectual; if the change of money supplies only causes nominal macroeconomic variables (such as nominal output, prices levels ,etc) change, then we may think that monetary policy is ineffectual. (2) How does an authority of currency choose and implement monetary policy properly and realize the goal of macro economy? It is a practice question that monetary policy must answer, including researches of main issues such as monetary policy targets, monetary policy tools, monetary policy rules, etc. (3 ) How does monetary policy influence the real economic variables? Transmission mechanism of monetary policy must be studied primarily. Monetary policy may exert influence to each part of the aggregate demand through various kinds of ways (such as interest rate, exchange rate, credit, assets price, etc.) , and reflect on the change of price level finally. Researching the transmission mechanism can help us to analyze the perturbation impact on economic variables of monetary policy deeply and carefully.This paper consists of four chapters altogether.In chapter one, we analyze the views of the effect of monetary policy of economists of different schools. On the whole, Keynesian economists think the monetary policy can play a role in stabilizing economic fluctuation because of the existence of salary and price rigidities, but New-classical economists debate that monetary policy is invalid. We think economists of different schools have different views on the result of monetary policy,the basic reason lies in views on the speed of price adjustment of different schools are different.In chapter two, we study operation rules of e monetary policy. We analyze the debates about "discretionary rule" vs. "single law" between doctrine Keynesianeconomists and Monetarists at first, and then we analyze the time inconsistent problem, proposing the reference meaning of monetary policy rules to our country.In chapter three, we study the transmission mechanism question of monetary policy. Monetary policy is conducted through the money and credit channel mainly. Through analyzing, we think that the credit channel is the main channel in China at present, and give advice on furthering transmission efficiency of Chinese monetary policy.In chapter four, we study the evolutionary law of intermediate targets in foreign countries firstly. On the basis of this, we analyze about our country’s intermediate target of monetary policy at present. We argue that, as an intermediate target, money supplies is still reasonable, at the same time, we point out that inflation targeting is an orientation to the adjustment to intermediate target of Chinese monetary policy.更多还原