杭州市基于可持续发展能力建设的全面小康评价及对策研究

【作者】 徐德才；

【导师】 许庆瑞；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 新的世纪，我国进入了建设全面小康社会的战略阶段。全面的小康社会不仅仅是经济的增长，而是经济、社会、科技、教育和可持续发展能力的同步发展。在可持续发展成为全球共识的今天，可持续发展能力的发展状况对于全面小康的实现进程有举足轻重的作用。因而，本文的研究出发点就是基于可持续发展能力的全面小康评价。 本文首先对全面小康的内涵进行评述，并把全面小康和可持续发展理论进行对比研究，从而提出基于可持续发展能力的全面小康评价指标体系。该指标体系分为四个子系统：经济、社会、科教和可持续发展能力。针对每个子系统的内涵，选取了具有代表意义的指标，根据专家评分确定各个指标的权重。接着，本文利用提出的指标体系对杭州的全面小康水平进行了评价，并且把杭州的情况与同等发展城市进行比较，线形外推杭州实现全面小康的年份是2009年。由于经济、社会、科教、可持续发展能力四个子系统间的关系是非线性、互动的，本文建立了系统动力学模型对杭州市全面小康实现进程进行了系统动态模拟并且对线形外推的结论进行了验证和修正。通过动态模拟发现：改变环保投入、科技投入、教育投入的模式可以使得杭州市于2008年实现全面小康，教育的投入超前于科技的投入大约6年。 最后，本文根据全面小康的评价结果、系统动态模拟的结果提出了杭州市建设全面小康社会和加强可持续发展能力的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the new century, we have come to the new strategy stage of building the whole well-off society. The whole well-off society means not only the rise in economy, but also the development of Science & technology, education, and sustainability. As the sustainable development has become a common understanding, the state of sustainability is the key to build the whole well-off society. So this study began with evaluating of whole well-off society based on sustainability.First, the meaning of whole well-off society was reviewed, and he thought of whole well-off society was compared with the theory of sustainable development. On the basis of the review and the comparison, a system of index is designed and examined to measure and evaluate the whole well-off society. The system of index involves four sub-systems: economy, society, S&T and education, and sustainability. Indexes were selected based on the meaning of every sub-system. Then, the state of whole well-off society of Hangzhou was evaluated, and comparison between different cities was made. On the basis of evaluation and comparison, that Hangzhou will be the whole well-off society in the year of 2009 was extrapolated. As the interaction between different sub-systems is dynamic and nonlinear, there may be some error in the conclusion extrapolated. A SD(System Dynamics) model was built to validate and correct the conclusion. By simulation, two conclusions were made: By change of the mode of the invest of environmental protection, S&T, education, Hangzhou will be the whole well-off society in the year of 2008; The invest of education will take precedence of the invest of S&T six years.Finally, policy analysis and policy suggestion was made based on the conclusion of evaluation and simulation.更多还原