粮食市场化改革进程中浙江农业结构变化与政策研究

【作者】 沈国强；

【导师】 陆文聪；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 农林经济管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 2001年，浙江在全国率先实施粮食市场化改革，取消粮食定购任务，把农业生产的自主权真正交给农户，引导农户以市场为导向，为农业结构调整创造了市场化环境。因此如何研究粮食市场化改革对浙江农业结构变动的影响问题，将具有重大的现实和理论意义。本文在简单回顾与评述粮改政策的基础上，分析了浙江农业结构变化的历史进程，并通过计量经济学方法探讨了粮改对农业结构调整的影响程度，以及基于成本比较分析了浙江主要农作物的国内和省内区域优势。在此基础上，提出如何进一步优化浙江农业结构的有关政策建议。 本文第一部分是全文的导论部分，主要综述了国内外有关农业结构调整的研究现状。接下来的第二部分中，首先阐述了粮改历程分为市场化起步、“双轨制”和以浙江为代表的新一轮粮改等三个阶段，接下来对浙江粮改政策主要内容的实施效果进行了相关评述。 第三部分，在介绍我国农业结构调整政策背景的基础上，本文重点分析了浙江农业结构调整具有：农业总产值比重、从事纯农业的劳动力比重以及种植业比重都呈大幅下降趋势、农业产业结构呈多元化发展和粮经作物结构比长期相对稳定而2000年后大幅度向经济作物倾斜等主要特征。 第四部分，本文就粮改政策对浙江种植业生产的影响问题进行了理论分析和计量经济实证分析。其中，实证分析结果，粮改政策对浙江省粮食作物播种面积的变动具有明显的负向效应。 第五部分，经过基于国内资源成本系数对国内、省内主要农产品区域的生产比较优势的分析，其结果显示出：(1)与国内省份比较浙江总体上缺乏粮棉油等主要农产品的生产比较优势；(2)浙江省各地区就不同农作物的生产比较优势具有较明显的差异性；(3)就不同品种的稻谷生产方面，浙江的有些区域仍具有一定生产比较优势。 经过前面几部分的阐述和分析之后，在本文的最后部分从进一步调减粮棉油种植面积、培育市场化农地流转、加快农作物品种更新、提高龙头企业带头作用、推进农业信息化和实施农业标准化管理等方面就浙江农业结构优化问题的提出有关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2001, by canceling grain quota, extending the agricultural production decision power to the local farmers and orienting the farmers to the market needs, Zhejiang province took the lead in carrying out the grain market reform. So it is of great importance to research on the effects of such grain market reform policy. The paper will briefly reviews the basis of the grain reform policy and then analyzes the historical process in the change of the agricultural structure. After econometrical analysis on the effects of the reform and the cost-based comparative analysis on the advantage of the main crop in Zhejiang province, we conclude with some advice on optimizing the agricultural structure in the district.The section one summarizes the domestic and foreign researches on the changes of agricultural structure. The following section then elaborate on the agricultural reform process and reviews the main parts of the agricultural policy reform and the corresponding effects.The section 3 introduces the background of the agricultural reform policy in the nation. We then emphasize the characteristics of the agricultural structure in Zhejiang province.The section 4 analyzes the effects of the reform on the crop production in Zhejiang province theoretically and empirically. The parameter in our empirical analysis proves that the grain reform in Zhejiang province causes the acreages decreases.Based on the DRCC analysis, the section 5 analyzes the comparative advantage of the main crops in the Zhejiang province as compared to the whole nation, we prove that:(1) As compared to other provinces in China, Zhejiang province lacks the advantages of the production of the main crop;(2) there exists great differences in the crop production of different districts in Zhejiang provinces;(3) as far as the rice and cereals are concerned, some districts in Zhejiang province is of certain advantages.Based on the above analysis, we conclude with some advice on the policy reform. We may further decrease the acreages of grains, accelerate the renovation process of new crop breeds and implement standard agricultural management in order to optimize the agricultural structure in Zhejiang province.更多还原