公共支出的经济增长效应研究

【作者】 吴健雄；

【导师】 彭大衡；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 数量经济学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 对中国这样一个发展中的大国而言，保持经济持续快速发展非常重要。鉴于政府支出占GDP的比重越来越大，理论界对最近5年来中央政府实施的积极(扩张)财政政策的分歧加大，本文试图从理论和实证两个方面研究这种财政支出政策和经济增长的关系。 本文首先在第一章对公共支出与经济增长的相关理论进行了详细综述。在第二章提出了一个广义居民消费额的新概念，建立了一个适应中国的内生经济增长模型，利用该模型从理论上考察了财政支出规模、结构与经济增长的关系。第三章的实证结果发现我国财政支出有利于经济增长，进一步考察发现，如果就财政支出而言，中国的最优政府支出规模应该是20.55％；但是，考虑到中国大量存在的预算外政府支出，如果把对象扩大到公共支出领域，本文发现，中国的最优政府支出规模应该是29.80％。而实际上2000年的公共支出规模才24.1％，这说明我国的公共支出仍然没有达到最优，我国当前实施的积极财政政策还应当继续。最后对财政支出的分类研究发现，中国财政支出结构需要调整，应该把更多的资金投入到经常性项目，而不是资本性项目下。 传统的计量分析手段可能导致伪回归，那么前面的结论就不可靠了。为了避免这种可能性，本文在第四章采用最新发展起来的VAR模型和协整理论对有关结论进行了再检验，通过脉冲响应分解，实证结果也显示，我国的扩张性财政支出对长期经济增长有利。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is extremely important for China, which is still a developing big country, to keep the pace of economic growth. This paper tries to analyze the relation between fiscal expenditure policy and economic growth from both theoretical and empirical aspects, with respect to the increasing ratio of government expenditure to GDP and growingly academic divergence on the active (expansive) fiscal policy implemented by central government in the recent five years.At first, a comprehensive conclusion on the relevant theories of fiscal expenditure and economic growth is made in the first chapter. Then a new concept of generalized individual consumption is presented and an endogenous economic growth model with Chinese features is developed, by which this paper theoretically investigates the relation between the expenditure scale, composition and economic growth. In the following chapter the empirical outcome points out China’s fiscal expenditure does good to economic growth. Furthermore this paper finds China’s optimal fiscal expenditure scale should be 20.55 per cent, in views of the fiscal expenditure; With respect to the large amount of out-budge government expenditure, if the object is widened to the whole public expenditure, this paper, however, finds the China’s optimal fiscal expenditure scale should be 29.80 per cent. But the actual public expenditure scale is only 24.1 per cent by 2000, which shows that China’s public expenditure is under optimal situation and the active fiscal policy nowadays should be available. At last, the paper investigates the composition of fiscal expenditure and makes the conclusion that China’s expenditure composition should be adjusted, investing more in the constant projects than in the productive projects.The conventional econometrical method may lead to spurious regression so that the preceding conclusion is under the ground. In order to avoid the negative effect, this paper in the fourth chapter verifies the related conclusion by applying the latest VAR model and cointegration theory, and empirically finds China’s active fiscal expenditure is beneficial to long-run economic growth through the decompositions of impulse response.更多还原