中国网络企业赢利模型研究

【作者】 宗凯；

【导师】 秦春荣；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 情报学， 2001， 硕士

【摘要】 2000年4月网络股大调整以来，对于网络企业的评价走出了非理性的狂热。一个突出的标志就在于：赢利这一市场永恒的主题，被重新提到了其应有的位置。关于赢利能力和前景的各种消息成为了直接影响企业生存发展的重要因素。《Business Week》就警告那些．com公司别再费心思琢磨公司应该走B2B还是B2C的模式，而是应该走赢利之路，即所谓的P2P(Path to Profitability)。有关调查显示，那些能够在上市一年之内赢利的商业模式是目前风险投资寻找的对象。 网络经济并没有从根本上改变实物经济的运行规则，但是，在网络这个载体上，实物经济的增值链被镜象到网络上形成虚拟的增值链，而整个增值过程依靠电子信息流来连接，它的好处是使增值的成本下降、速度加快、范围扩大。但是即便是对网络经济持乐观态度的人们也承认存在一定的泡沫成分，但股价超值的泡沫承受程度却值得重新审视。他们认为对于网络股的价值发现应使用全新的判断指标，关键就是要淡化网络股的利润水平，因为利润只能代表过去，而成长性才意味着公司的明天。包括网站经营者和风险投资商在内的不少人把“网站经济”与“网络经济”混为一谈，把劲都使在了争取“注意力”上。但是，正如网络企业不等于网站一样网络经济也不等于网站经济，二者之间的联系其实远没有人们想象中的那样紧密。网络经济的生存与发展需要较高的技术和社会成本。如果一个企业或国家难以支付这样一笔巨大的成本，就很难在这一领域获得竞争优势。我们国家正面临这样一个尴尬的局面。我国网络经济自90年代中期起步，目前仍处于发展初期：网络基础设施建设有待加强；信息产业和技术相对落后；网络经济发展缺少相应的基础；企业尚未成为网络经济发展的真正主体。CNNIC官方的正式数据表明，中国互联网用户突破了2000万这个门槛。对中国的市场来说，2000万是一个非常重要的心理关口与门槛。网民超过这个门槛后，电子商务的普及速度会翻着跟头往上涨，网民质量的结构性变化使有消费能力的网民大大增加。以网络经济为龙头，可以带动相关行业运作效率和水平的提升，中国人口多、地域广阔，交通拥挤，购物成本高，发展网络经济可以降低能源损耗，保护环境，降低企业运行成本，创造新的就业机会，提高国民的生活质量。 “网络企业”的核心是通过“网络”这一手段解决工业经济无法解决的问题。在中国，有以下8大类的企业可以划为网络企业范畴：电信部门的数据通讯公司；民间网络公司在内容服务上的发展；政府建立的内容网；政府职能网络；专业服务网；服务网络商；基础设施制造商；软件应用提供商。这八种模式并非严格分开的，很多网络商都是各项兼做的。其中第七第八种模式的企业市场基本被国外大公司垄断；第二第三第四第五种模式的企业的发展将会相互融合，它们之间的区别将越来越小。所以大多数时候我们也就认为中国的网络企业主要是做电子商务和ICP的企业。 基于人们对电子商务概念理解上的不同，电子商务模式也千变万化，简单的按其应用服务的领域范围，可分为四类，即企业对消费者B2C、企业对企业B2B、企业对政府机构B2C、消费者对政府机构的电子商务C2G。中国的电子商务市场虽然发展迅速，但仍然很不成熟。网上商品交易量在社会商品零售总额中所占的比例还不到0.02％，要比美国低70倍左右。发展电子商务，中国应比美国具有更大的集约化空间。也就是说，电子商务在中国，理想状态下应节省76.59％的交易费用。但实际情况，中国电子商务只能节省11.61％的交易费用。互联网被炒得沸沸扬扬，但“火爆”背后却是一片苍白，大多网站都不过是声厉内拌的货色。到现在中国还没有一家网际网络公司说他们燕利的，包括三大互联网公司新浪，搜狐和网易.另一方面，即便在海外土市成功，怎么消化这些资金也是个问题，还有经营管理，市场的培育等都是要解决的问题。 为什么不蔽利?理论上，网站的利润儿乎不可能与它的投入平衡，侮个网站希望维持他们顾客的忠诚度，需要一个系数大于l的加速投资。那么，网站吸引的用户越多，其投入就越大，而用户的消费的增长无论如何也无法追赶上投资的增长，所谓“卖得越多越亏本”.但是AOL、雅虎、匀伪s和Excite@Home都在赚钱的，而且他们有一个明显的共同之处，即收入的一半以上来自广告和电子商务。实际_卜，网络企业木身有可能构成利润的主休，但是最重要的并不在于此，网络企业或者说网络技术与传统产业的整合将起到延仲利润的作用。相当一部分网络企业会通过.与传统产业企业的整合来找到自身的利润基础，而传统产业企业也将会在这一拱合中拓展自己在数字时代的新的利润空间，形成一种“双燕”格局.根据现阶段网站的收入的方式来划分网络企业可能的获利模式: 口风险资本 口网络广告 n网_上商店(BZC) 口网上网下整合经营(日2日) 口网络顾问 口网络金融 口内容服务收费 口网络拍卖 口传统的免费项目收费(电子邮件在线游戏主页提供) 口出冉企业 口提供平台 口系统集成 各种模式之问的融汇将成为一种潮流。更多还原

【Abstract】 Early last year, when gripped global equity markets, everyone wrote articles extolling the virtues of the New Economy. A lot has changed since then. Driven by a breathtaking dive in NASDAQ stocks, the net worth of the average American has declined for the first time in more than a half-century. Get profitable sooner. Forget B2B or B2C: The new catchphrase among dot-coms is P2P, for path to profitability. Venture-capital investors once tolerated profits forecasts three or four years in the future. Now they’re looking for business plans that target profitability less than one year after an initial public offering.Early last year, articles extolling the virtues of the New Economy abounded as ’techno-mania’ gripped global equity markets. Much has changed since then: Following the subsequent plummeting of the tech-heavy NASDAQ index, the average American has seen his net worth decline for the first time in more than fifty years.The Network Economy is not the end of history. Given the rate of change, this economic arrangement may not endure more than a generation or two. Once networks have saturated every space in our lives, an entirely new set of rules will take hold. Take these principles, then, as rules of thumb for the interim. The rise and fall of the New Economy is by no means accompanied by a slowing in global interconnectivity and modernization. Indeed, the New Economy is hardly an end in itself, but it is instead a stage in the overall development of the modem global economy. Given the rate of change during the past decade, the current economic arrangement may not endure beyond the next generation. Once networks have saturated every aspect of our lives that an entirely new set of rules and standards will take form is very likely. In the meantime, the following can serve as guiding principles:Is there a New Bubble Economy? But I continue to believe, as many economists do, that improvements in information technology have already increased the efficiency and productivity of the world economy, with additional benefits to come as both old and new companies adapt their operations to make the most of the new technologies. I tend to agree with the current consensus among economists that improvements in information technology have already raised the efficiency and productivity of the world economy to new heights-and that this trend will continue. Furthermore, we should expect significant additional benefits as both ’traditional’ and ’new economy* companies adapt their operations to make the most of these new technologies.Many people confuse the concept of Website Economy and Network Economy, including the managers and venture investors. They tried their best to shoot for Attention. But, Network Economy and Website Economy don’t have so much similitude, just like Network Enterprises and Websites don’t have much similitude.Particularly fund managers and venture capitalists often confuse the concepts of ’the Web Economy and ’the Network Economy. It is costly to keep with and develop Network Economy. We would not keep ahead it if we could pay for the expensive cost. We have face the embarrassed truth: the foundation of the network should be improved, the information technology is still weak, the prindpal part of Network Economy is not enterprise, and so on. The continual development and maintenance of the Network Economy is a costly endeavor. This fact becomes all the more apparent once the profound costs of network foundation improvement, information technology enhancement, and resource reallocation are taken into consideration. The number of the user of the China Internet has beyond 20,000,000. The official data from CNNIC can prove it. We have so many users. E-commerce is developing apace. Developing Network Economy can reduce the consume of energy sources, protect the environment, and improve the quality of living.The official Internet monitoring organ in China’s mainland, CNNIC, reports that Internet usage in China’s mainland has surpassed twenty million users. The externalities of such growth are signi更多还原