我国IPO定价合理化

【作者】 苏巍；

【导师】 陈永生；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 工商管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 IPO，即新股首次公开发行。IPO定价合理化是指通过一系列适当的机制发现合理的发行价格。合理的IPO价格能够使得企业顺利的进行融资和高效的分散经营风险，也对证券市场的资源配置和股市发展起到至关重要的作用。IPO定价意义如此之大，其研究在我国还处于刚刚起步的阶段。在我国特殊的市场环境下，IPO定价的不合理主要表现为新股抑价程度较为严重，平均上市首日利润远远超过其他国家的平均水平。本文的目的在于：通过对国外IPO定价的相关理论的学习和实践经验的借鉴，对我国IPO定价中出现的问题及成因进行探讨，提出我国IPO定价合理化的举措，以期对我国资本市场的规范和发展起到一定的指导作用。 文章一共四万字，分为四部分，主要内容如下： 第一章，决定股票价格的基本理论。新股的市场价格一方面取决于它的理论价值，另一方面则取决于发行时采取的发行模式。因此笔者在第一节里介绍了国际上通用的股票价值分析方法，包括股利折现模型、现金流折扣法、市盈率法、净资产倍率法、经济效益附加值估值模型等计算股票理论价格的方法；第二节则介绍国际上主要的IPO的发行模式（包括固定定价模式、竞价模式、簿记模式和混合发行模式）以及影响选择发行模式的因素（新股发行制度、市场参与者成熟程度和市场的发育状况）。 第二章，国外IPO的发行模式的分析比较。作者在这里，国际资本市场的实践证明IPO发行价格不合理主要是新股抑价问题。笔者首先介绍了国外有关探究新股抑价原因的学说，然后分析了发达国家和新兴市场国家为消除发行价格不合理（主要是抑价）而采用的不同的新股发行模式的情况，最后介绍了最新的IPO发展趋势和新的辅助发行工具。 第三章是我国的IPO发行价格分析。我国的IPO抑价远远超出合<WP=3>理的程度，严重破坏市场的平衡，扭曲资源的配置。虽然我国多次尝试改变发行模式来调整发行价格，但最后都归于失败。失败的原因是多方面的，其一，一级市场受到干预和控制不能为交易市场提供充足的高质量的产品；其二，二级市场价格虚高，失去了市场判定和发现价格的正常机能；其三，计算新股的基准价格的方法过于简单，操作又不规范；其四，发行模式死板，市场参与有限。 论文第四章就我国新股首次公开发行中的问题提出解决方案。笔者认为：合理发行定价要首先规范我国的证券市场，具体步骤包括解决我国证券市场特有的障碍--非流通股问题；减少过多的行政干涉和控制，让市场机制发挥作用；借鉴先进经验，引入相关法规和制度；其次，在发行中采取更加客观的标准计算新股底价并选用发行竞价与定价相结合的混合发行模式，注意在竞价的初期给予的调整的方法；最后要在制度的完善过程中注意各种先进制度和工具的使用。这些举措能够纠正现行制度的缺陷，充分发挥市场的价格发现机制同时又对竞价有一定的调整，与现有的定价方法相比更符合我国发行市场现阶段的发展趋势和具体情况。更多还原

【Abstract】 Successful IPO (Initial Public Offer) is one of the best ways to collect necessary capital publicly, to distribute the operation risk and to improve the capital structure. The reasonable pricing of IPO is principal to issue of IPO. In China, the popular problem is the underpricing of IPO. The writer hereby means to figure out a way to pricing IPO reasonably through illustration of IPO in international markets and discussion on the experience of our own market. The whole thesis includes four parts as below:There are primary theories on the IPO pricing in the first part. The price of IPO is determined not only by the way to calculate its basic value but also by the systems to issue them. So most popular ways to calculate its basic value such as DDM, DCF, P/E, NVA are mentioned in the first chapter. Next, the author introduces the main systems to issue IPO including Fixed Price, Auction, Book-building, and Mix of the formers. Also the policy on new issues, the capability of traders and the extent of development of stock market are brought out as the ingredients to choose the fitful issue systems.In the second chapter, the arguer turns to the comparison and analysis of the ways to issue IPO in foreign markets. Some theories on the causes of underpricing and main systems in developed countries and in new emerging market to issue IPO are introduced and analyzed separately. The different systems have different advantages and should be applied in different backgrounds. Finally, the writer mentioned the development in auxiliary tools and tendency of IPO issue in recent years.<WP=5>Analysis on IPO in China is brought forward in the third chapter. Underpricing of IPO in China is so heavy that it doesn’t only make the price abnormal high, but also upset the balance between the issue market and the transaction market, which lead to the deterioration in allocation the financial resource. Although great efforts have been paid to modulate the price of IPO, the underwriters in China failed to get a fitful system to price IPO. The reasons come from the interference on issue market by government, the abnormal price level in transaction market, the oversimplicity in the ways to discover the price of IPO, and the scarcity of standardization in operation. All these factors lead to low efficiency on issues of IPO. Finally, from all the discussion above, the author gives a proposal on solving the problem of IPO pricing. First, the "untradable" stocks should be changed to be tradable ones. Second, government should help to establish a system to supervise the operation in the market but not the government should act as managers in the securities market. Third, both issue market and transaction market should be standardized at the international criteria. After the normalization of the market, the underwriter should choose the mix of auction and fixed price regime as the best way to price IPO. Of course, they also need to pay enough attention to some auxiliary tools to help them modulate pricing of IPO in the whole process.更多还原