【作者】 袁军；

【导师】 张忠桢；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以中国寿险业的经营风险为考察对象，从一个新的角度研究中国可能存在的金融风险问题。由于客观环境变化、经营不力、决策失误等原因，保险业的资产信誉有遭受损失的可能性。亚洲金融危机后日本、韩国的寿险公司破产案例接连不断，无疑给保险经营敲响了警钟。保险业作为金融体系的一个组成部分，与社会公众利益紧密相关，尤其是寿险业，对一国的稳定、社会安定和经济发展具有很大的影响。如果保险公司爆发风险，大面积的金融风险就会被引发，由此将危及到整个经济的正常运行和社会安定。因此，研究中国寿险业风险水平及其防范措施，对中国金融危机的防范、对经济的正常运行和社会的稳定具有十分重要的意义。 在对现有文献和研究成果总结回顾的基础上，本文首先考察了寿险经营的风险特性。寿险合同的特点、寿险经营的原理、寿险市场的市场结构等方面因素决定了寿险经营具有风险性的内在特性。由于寿险合同的长期性，潜在的风险在短时期内常常不会暴露，导致寿险经营中易忽视风险的防范而片面追求业务的扩张，因此寿险业是一个需要监管的行业。世界各国的保险经营实践表明保险业偿付能力危机的发生和监管程度有密切的关系。 对寿险经营风险的衡量及监控一般从评价其财务报告入手。本文研究了美国、欧盟和中国的监管方法和指标体系，结合保险信用评级机构对寿险公司的财务测试比率，全面阐述了寿险经营的财务评价内容。以此为依据，本文认为寿险公司的各种财务比率是重要的研究对象。财务比率可以进行分类，从不同角度反映了寿险公司的资本充足情况、盈利性、流动性、经营管理能力等内容，成为评价寿险公司偿付能力的重 武汉理工大学硕士论文要依据．可以参照监管部门和评级机构的指标体系选择财务比率，运用多元统计学方法分析中国寿险经营的偿付能力的变化． 本文采用因子分析法，选取八各主要的财务比率，用寿险公司的实际经营数据对中国寿险经营的偿付能力变化进行实证研究．中国寿险经营的偿付能力总体呈下降趋势，主要的影响因素是公司的资金实力和盈利能力、资产的可盈利性和流动性、准备金的充足提取．因子分析揭示了不同时期偿付能力的相对状况及其影响因素，为下一步提高偿付能力提供了可行的思路，就中国寿险经营的当前状况而言，提高偿付能力的关键在于充实公司的资金实力，提高公司的盈利能力．此外，仍需注重压缩经营费用、提足准备金和增加可盈利资产的比例，压缩固定资产构建规模，从而增加资产的流动性和盈利性． 针对上述研究的内容和结论，本文提出了化解和防范寿险经营风险的宏观政策选择．寿险业经营风险的化解和防范主要依靠寿险公司不断提高经营能力，但作为一个有关国计民生的幼稚产业，国家政策也应当给予扶持，解决目前寿险经营面临的资本困境、投资困境和税赋负担，鼓励保险公司的并构和重组以提高经营实力．同时寿险业也是一个需要监管的行业，在政策扶持的同时，在现阶段的中国寿险市场上还应实行严格监管的模式．更多还原

【Abstract】 The problem of insolvency in the insurance industry is well recognized . This study investigates operational risks of China’s life insurance industry and aims to study the possible financial crisis in China from a new perspective. The assets and credit of insurance company’ may suffer because of the environmental change, poor management and fail decision etc. Some of life insurance company’s bankruptcy in Japan and South Korea after Asian financial turmoil in 1997 has given warning to life insurance operation. Insurance is a part of the financial system and has a close tie with public benefits. Especially, life insurance industry has a strong externality to financial stability, social welfare and economic development. The exposure of risks in insurance industry will probably trigger severe financial crisis and then endanger the stability of whole society. So it’s of great importance to assess the risk of China’s life industry and illustrate the implications to operation and policy .On the basis of the literature review, we first identify that life insurance operation is risky in nature, which is determined by the characteristics of contract, the principle of operation and the market structure of life insurance. Usually, the risk will not break out because of long term of the contract, due to which the company tends to pursue expansion of business and neglect of the hidden risk. So regulation is required in insurance industry. The practices of other countries also proved that there is a close relationship between insurance solvency and the extent of regulation.Assessing and regulating the operational risks of life insurance begins with analyzing the company’s financial report. This study investigates the regulatory information in the U.S.,EU and China and the financial tests ofinsurance credit rating companies. Financial ratios will give information about the company’s capital adequacy, profitability, liquidity and management, which is an effective basis of assessing the solvency of the life insurance company. When studying the tendency of the solvency of China’s life insurance operation, it’s a practical method to select proper financial ratios according to the above references and adopt statistical analysis.The study selects 8 financial ratios with the data of China’s main life insurance company and adopts factor analysis to illustrate the change of solvency of life insurance operation. The result shows that the general tendency of solvency is declining and the main factors influencing the solvency are capital capacity and profitability, earning asset and its liquidity, adequacy of reserves. Factor analysis also shows the change of solvency in different period and the determinants, which involve implications on how to improve the solvency. At present, the key to improve solvency is to reinforce the capital and increase profitability. At the same time, reducing expenses, enriching reserves, increasing the earning assets and cutting down fixed assets are also to be taken into consideration.On the basis of the above contents and conclusions, this study points out some macropolicy selections including removing limitation on capital raising, investment channels, alleviating tax and encouraging merger and acquisition. At the same time, life insurance needs strict regulation in China at preset stage.更多还原