【作者】 邢恩德；

【导师】 奈民夫·那顺；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 水土保持与荒漠化防治， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 区域荒漠化发生是随机的、复杂的，多元的复杂系统。对于“奈曼旗荒漠化发生复杂系统与动力学模型研究”本文采用定性描述、定量研究与综合集成三大类研究方法。用桑斯威特方法计算评价奈曼旗荒漠化量度，结果是1980-1984年的时段湿润指数为0.481属于半干旱，1990-1994年时段的湿润指数为0.685，属于湿润时期，并逐月计算出果树、农作物等灌溉需水量；采用层次分析方法，计算出奈曼旗荒漠化发生自然、社会、“六乱”的分摊系数；采用马尔科夫链计算出土地利用格局的变化，可预测出景观的变化；又采用系统动力学方法，分析了农牧子系统的变化规律。根据以上方法所得出的结果本文提出了奈曼旗荒漠化发生复杂系统与综合控制三大体系（以建防护林为主的第一生产性体系，日光温室为主的优化物质转换体系，日光温室与防护林相结合的人为控制体系）。更多还原

【Abstract】 The happenning of regional desertification system is stochastic, complicated and multicomponent. This essay used three method, qualitative description, quantitative study and integration for the study on dynamics model and complex system of desertification in Naiman Nanner. We used Thornthwaite method to calculate and appraise the degree of desertification in this area. It showed that the humid index was 0.481, so the Naiman Banner should belonge to the semiarid period in 1980-1984. But in 1990-1994, the humid index was 0.685; it should belonge to the humid period. Basing on these outcomes, we calculated the quantity of necessary water of fruit three and crops month by month. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, we calculated the natural, social and "liuluan"apportion coefficient of desertification happenning in there. Using the (A.A. Markov) method, we calculated the utilized land’s pattern, namely, the landscap change of utilized land, and forecased the changeof landscape. By using the system dynamics, we analysed the variational law of agriculture and stockbreeding’s subsystem. According to these outcomes, we put forward three big system of complex system happening and controlling of desertification in Naiman Banner. The first system is the primary production system that the main body is to build the shelterbelt. The second is optimized matter transition system that the main body is greenhouse. The third is the greenhouse and shelterbelt contrived controlling system that they are combinative.更多还原