【作者】 梁剑锋；

【导师】 刘信安；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 应用化学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 环境预测是环境规划管理、污染综合防治和环境调控的理论基础，流域环境富营养化污染预测研究则是水环境安全保护工作最重要的一环。对于即将形成的三峡水库而言，即使在目前的水文条件下，长江流域的，尤其是主要次级河流(如乌江流域)的总磷总氮浓度也一直偏高。水库蓄水以后，水流速度减缓，是否会在整个库区水域发生富营养化污染，就成为三峡水库水环境安全保护中亟需开展预测研究的重要课题。本文简要分析了富营养化污染发生的成因和调控要素，结合三峡水库调度运行情况和库区气候、水文及水质指标等水域富营养化影响因子的分析，讨论了三峡水库成库过程中和成库后富营养化发生的可能性，初步确定了三峡库区水体富营养化污染的氮磷浓度条件，为进一步深入研究和预测库区富营养化污染提供了参考意见。为了有效研究富营养化污染物在流域环境中的演化过程、迁移模式、结构形态和全局动力学行为，本文利用数学手段，结合非线性理论和环境科学理论，从流域生态环境污染非线性演化过程的典型数学模型出发，构建了两个描述水体富营养化污染随时间空间迁移和演变规律的流域生态非线性动力学模型。引入胞映射理论和方法，通过计算机模拟与仿真，对水域富营养化污染的非线性动力学系统的全局性态、演化行为、结构形态、吸引域、吸引子(周期解)特征、轨迹对称性、自相似性及稳定性等问题进行了分析和讨论，为有效描述污染物在流域环境体系中的聚集、扩散、分布和演化性态，评价和预报流域环境系统的行为提供了理论基础。研究成果表明：胞映射理论的引入和相应仿真计算方法的建立为全面研究污染环境的动力学行为及复杂的库区污染水域强非线性动力学体系提供了新思路和实现技术。最后，本文基于连续注入营养基的培养皿微生物的连续培养模式，并根据耗散理论和复杂性科学方法构建了更接近实际库区流域环境的非线性营养动力学模型。通过对库区乌江流域实际富营养化河段的现场水质监测数据的分析比较和研究，证明本文提出的理论模型具有很好的指导意义，其仿真结果直观体现了水华发生的过程、复杂的振荡现象和内在的化学控制因素更多还原

【Abstract】 Environmental prediction is a theoretical base of environmental programming, pollution prevention and environmental adjustment and control. The environmental contaminative prediction research on valley eutrophication is one of the most important aspects in water environmental protection. As we know that even under the current hydrological conditions, TP and TN contamination along Yangtze River valley, especially along the main sub-rivers such as Wujiang river valley, would be higher than the standard level of national water quality. The velocity of flow will become slower dramatically when Three-Gorges reservoir has been constructed so that the eutrophication would take place in the whole reservoir area, and an important task to resolve on water environmental protection in Three-Gorges reservoir will be necessary. The causes and some other key factors of the valley eutrophication are analyzed in this paper. Besides, the possibilities were discussed on the occurrence of valley eutrophication before and after completing Three-Gorges reservoir along with the analysis on the factors resulting in the valley eutrophication such as the ratio between TP and TN, reservoir-operated circumstances, the weather in the reservoir area, hydrological status and the water quality. The current concentrations of TP and TN which would lead valley eutrophication can be the references for further study and prediction on valley eutrophication in the reservoir area. Based on complexity theory, environmental conditions and some typical mathematical models of nonlinear evolution for describing pollution, two nonlinear ecological dynamic models were established through cell mapping theory and algorithm to describe the rules of valley eutrophication transferring and evolving with the time and the space. And by them we could study effectively the pathway of evolution and transferring, the structure and global dynamic behavior of eutrophication pollutants in the valley above. The emulation computing and analysis of global behaviors, evolution process, structure status, domain of attraction, characteristics of attractors, symmetry of track, comparability with itself and stability of nonlinear eutrophication polluting dynamics systems are studied using the cell mapping method. And a theoretical base was put forward to describe the statuses of pollutants such as attracting, diffusing, distributing and evolving, and to estimate and to predict the pollutants behaviors of the simulative valley system. The results show that the introduction of cell mapping theory<WP=6>and the corresponding emulation algorithm can offer us a new kind of idea and the technology for studying the dynamics behaviors of environmental pollution and the strong nonlinear complexity dynamics systems for polluted water area in Three-Gorges reservoir. Finally, based on a continuous cultivation model of microbes with continuous nutrient injection in a nutrition box, the dissipation theory and the method of complexity science, a new nonlinear nutrient dynamic model is established which would be more similar to the reality of the valley system. By comparing the cell mapping simulating result of emulating dynamic model and the ratio of TP and TN monitoring data of a stretch of the partially-eutrophied Wujiang river, we have found a direct quantitative relationship between the dramatic shape change of strange attractor of the dynamic model in cell space and algal blooms. This, we could reveal and find these inner chemical affecting factors and environmental evolution rules of the eutrophication process in Three-Gorges Valley更多还原