【作者】 王立辉；

【导师】 毛德华；

【作者基本信息】 湖南师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 鉴于洞庭湖洪涝高风险区的土地利用是一项涉及洪涝灾害、生态环境、社会经济因素等多方面的综合系统工程，有必要对其可持续性进行科学的整体评价。本文在研究洞庭湖洪涝灾害对土地利用影响的基础上；分析洪涝高风险区土地可持续利用管理系统的组成、概念模型、土地可持续利用的内涵及洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地利用的现状特点；根据可持续理论定性定量地评估洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地资源利用的可持续程度；力图揭示洞庭湖洪涝高风险区洪涝灾害风险与区域土地可持续利用在时空上的耦合关系。 本文基于定性分析洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地利用管理系统的内涵及概念模型，运用压力——状态——响应模型，参考联合国粮农组织的《土地可持续管理评估大纲》中提出的五大目标，即生产力、生产的安全性、资源的保护性、经济的可行性和社会的可接受性，考虑到洪涝灾害主要是影响生产的安全性，建立了洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地可持续利用与管理评价指标体系的基本框架。该评价体系选用五大目标的55个评价单项指标来全面描述洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地可持续利用管理程度。 评价洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地可持续利用管理的准则多，许多评价指标难以定量描述，所以本文采用层次分析法(Analytical hierarchy process，简称AHP)来处理洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地可持续利用管理的综合评价问题。在研究了单项指标的标志值(或指标值)的确定的前提下，对洞庭湖洪涝高风险区19个蓄洪堤垸和整个洪涝高风险区不同年份的土地利用管理进行了综合评价，其主要评价结果表明： 1、土地可持续利用程度不断增加且呈加速提高之势。1985年综合评价值(Y值)为37.72，1995年为46.23，2001年达57.60。这表明：洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地利用在这16年内进行了调整，土地可持续利用能力有了提高，也从侧面说明了这段时间内国家对洞庭湖区综合治理政策产生了很好的效益。 2、洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地可持续利用总体水平偏低。目前，洞庭湖洪涝高风险区土地可持续利用仍处于初步可持续利用管理的前期阶段，离土地可持续利用管理目标还相差很远(20时年Y值57.60)。各堤烷的土地可持续利用程度也很低。 3、各类单项指标升降趋势不一致。尽管综合评价值(Y)呈现随时间而增加的趋势，但各类单项指标并没呈一致的上升趋势，特别值得注意的是:1985一一1995年，由于人口过快的增长以及过份强调经济生产而忽视对土地资源和生态环境的保护，全区土地质量明显下降、资源遭到严重破坏，加上洪涝灾害频繁地出现，以致在这段时期内尽管生产力、经济可行性、社会可接受性指标值分别从26.25、45.12、38.59上升到38.59、71.66、50.25，但生产稳定性和资源保护性指标值却由29.58和50.24下降到27.24和34.19。 4、洞庭湖区土地可持续利用管理程度的地区差异不大，但呈现出可持续利用程度与生产力水平成正向比和与洪涝风险成反向比的分布规律。我们从综合评价结果中可以看出:土地的可持续利用程度与生产力和洪涝风险之间的祸合关系较为复杂。不能简单地说生产力水平高的地方土地可持续利用程度就高，洪涝风险大的地方上地利用就一定不可持续。 因此，要搞好该区土地利用应从理顺土地利用与防洪减灾的关系入手，建议采取如下措施: ①重视土地整理和生产安全设施建设; ②将土地利用与防灾减灾有机地结合起来; ③优化土地利用结构，适应洪涝高风险区特点; ④重新评估洪涝风险，在不同等级区采用不同的土地利用模式。 本文所采用的评价指标体系和评价方法简单实用，具有一定的推广应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In view the land use of high risk on the flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region is a integrated system project which involved risk of flood-waterlogging disaster, cco-environment ^social economic and so on. It is necessary that we evaluate totally and scientifically (he degree of sustainable land use of high risk of the flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region, this paper is ready to study on the base in which the relationship between the flood-wafcrlogging disaster and land use in Dongting Lake region,after analyizing the component and concept model of land sustainable use and management system on high risk of flood- wateriogging region,and the intension of sustainable land use on high risk of the flood-waterlogging region and the current trails of land use on the high risk of flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region. According to sustainable development,the paper had qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated the degree of land sustainable use on high risk of flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region, and making every effort to reveal the coincidental relationship between the flood-waterlogging risk and provincal sustainable land use in time and space.What the index system for essessing sustainable land use of high risk on the flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region put forward is refered to the five aims of the FHSLM (An International framework for evaluating sustainable land management)by FAO, i e: productivity, security, protection Viability and acceptability and based on qualitative analysis the intension and concept model of sustainable land use and management in Dongting Lake region; applying the pressure -situation-response modcl;considcring flood- waterlogging disaster is mainly effect the security of land use. this paper establish the basic framework for evaluating index system, which included 55 evaluating factors of sustainable land use in order to describe comprehensively thedegree of sustainable land use and management on high risk of the flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region.The indexes of evaluating sustainable land use is too many and even some indexes arc not easy to quantitatively describe. So this paper adopt AHP to deal with the problem about comprehensive evaluating of sustsainablc use on the high risk of flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region. After establishing the mark result of the individual index,the paper had applied AHP to comprehensively evaluate the degree of sustainable land use and management in 19 ploders respectively and in different year respectively. The result show:(1)Thc degree of land sustainable use is increasing and showing the trend of acceleration. The result is 37.72, 46.23, 57.60, in 1985, 1995, 2001 respectively. Its reason is that the land use on the high risk of flood-waterlogging in Dongling Lake region had been regulated in the past 16 years. The degree of sustainable land use had been enhanced which had also illustrated aspectly the country’s policies of synthesial governing the Dongting Lake region which brought about cnouraging result.(2)The total degree of sustainable land use on the high risk of flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region is low. presently. The land use of high risk of in the flood-waterlogging in Dongting Lake region is still at the earlier stage in the primary of sustainable land use and management which is far from sustainable land use and management (the result of 2001 is 57.60),various polders’ degree of sustainable land use is also low.(3)The trend of increase or reduction among various single index is not identical. Although the rcsult(Y) show the increase’s trend by time, various single index is not appear the same one. Especially it be worth paying more attention to 1985-1995: Although the result of productivity and viability and acceptability increase from 26.25, 45.1 2 and 38.59 to 38.59,71.66 and 50.25 during this period, the index result of product security and natural resource protect decrease from 29.58 and 50.24 to27.74 and 34.19 respectively. Owing to. ovcr-populationcd and over更多还原