【作者】 袁榴艳；

【导师】 杨改河；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 生态学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 新疆位于亚欧大陆中心，拥有1/6的国土面积并与八国毗邻，自古以来战略地位十分显著。在倡导可持续发展与西部大开发的今天，新疆不仅是具有保障国家安全与稳定的政治意义，而且还成为重要的资源、能源基地，对我国今后社会经济发展意义重大。而新疆95％的人口与工农业产值集中在仅占国土面积8.22％的绿洲上，新疆的社会经济发展实质上就是新疆绿洲社会经济的发展。由于绿洲处在严酷的干旱环境中，决定了绿洲生态系统十分脆弱，极易朝着荒漠化方向演化，从而导致绿洲环境变迁、生态系统全盘崩溃，楼兰等古绿洲的消亡就是血的事实；当前，绿洲也普遍面临着诸如水体面积减少，沙漠化加剧等严重的环境问题。因此，遵循自然规律，因地制宜的实施绿洲可持续发展战略，是新疆今后发展的必由之路。只有对新疆绿洲的自然环境及社会经济的发展做全面深入的研究，才能为今后的发展制定出合理可行的思路与规划。 本研究通过对新疆绿洲发生发展历程的研究，分析了新疆绿洲的自然特点，历史开发带来的启示及现代新疆绿洲发展特征，基于此建立了新疆绿洲可持续发展的评估体系，并对目前新疆绿洲的发展进行可持续性评价，指出了今后新疆绿洲可持续发展的思路与基本途径。 从干旱环境的形成及绿洲发育的物质基础两个方面，对新疆绿洲发生历程的研究以明确绿洲基本的自然特点。绿洲产生的干旱环境在早第三纪已开始形成，并于第四纪稳定下来，这种环境决定了新疆绿洲具有：以径流形成的地貌为地理分布的基本物质条件，水源依赖于所依托的径流而非降水，植被以草灌为主，分布较分散且资源禀赋雷同等方面的特点。同时，指出以草灌为主的荒漠植被是维护绿洲生态环境的主要力量。 以新疆绿洲社会经济发展的历史为基础，对新疆绿洲社会经济发展的历史局限性进行综合分析，指出历史上绿洲社会经济的发展对中原经济辐射有很强的依赖性，决定其经济发展方向的不是自然资源或生产力水平特点，而是统治者的战略考虑与政策，使绿洲的支柱性产业没有得到发展，从而导致绿洲经济独立性差，受区位制约大。通过结合塔里木盆地边缘消亡古绿洲的特征及3000年来的气候变化进行综合分析，指出影响古绿洲环境变迁的根本因素是由气温波动引起的水源不稳定性，而低下的生产力水平是导致古绿洲环境变迁的直接原因；并指出各流域内部上中下游间的水资源的合理配置关系到下游绿洲环境变化的命运。 结合绿洲自然特点，历史启示与当前发展的特征，运用系统分析的方法，建立了新疆绿洲可持续发展评估指标体系，包括社会经济可持续发展、资源环境可持续发展与区位制约三个方面；并运用线性非线性理论建立了可持续发展的评估数学模型，通过模糊综合评判法确定出评判标准，并对当前新疆绿洲发展的可持续性进行了评估分析。提出新疆绿洲发展的总体思路为：以农为本积极发展现代农业，有的放矢发展工业，加强旅游业；加快中小城市发展；始终贯穿以水资源为核心的自然资源环境可持续利用的思想与技术。更多还原

【Abstract】 Xinjiang has been an important place for China for ages, for its land area equating to one sixth of China land, lying in the center of Asia-Europe continent, and bordering on eight countries. Today, sustainable development and developing West China are been advocated. This makes Xinjiang more important in politic station but also economic station, and it becomes the base of resource and energy. However, there are 95per of population and outputs in the oases where occupies only 8.2per land area of Xinjiang. Because there are little water resource, barren soil, and little creatures in the arid land, the oases in which is a very frangible ecologic system. Desertization always makes the oases in troubles, and leads the ecologic system collapse. For example, many oases towns-countries died out from the history, and desert is promptly expending today. How the oases can gain the sustainable development is the urgent affairs for Xinjiang. Therefore, the appropriate and feasible blue print could be put out, just through the home researching on the development of the nature environment and eco-society.Through the researching on the process of the oases shaping and development, the natural characters of oases were analyzed, the lessons of its history were concluded, and the questions we are facing were put up, then based on these, the sustainable development assessment system of oases in Xinjiang was set up, through which today’s oases development was assessed, certainly the thought and basic programs for oases sustainable development were put forward.The arid environment shaped in early Tertiary, and stabilized in Quaternary, through the broth of arid environment and the base substance conditions shaping oases were researched, the shaping way and the natural characters of oases were analyzed. Oases shaped and lay in the land where the rivers could pour into, they disperse each other for the rivers they depending are dispersed. They resemble each other on the gift of nature resource.Based on the history of the oases development, the limits in history period and the lessons form them were analyzed. The development of oases eco-society firmly depended on the affects from Middle China, the level of development was decided by not oases itself but the politic tend of governors. After the characters of the died out oases in the range of Tarim basin and climate change were synthetic analyzed, concluded that the essential causefor the oases died out in history was the instability of water resource resulting from the fluctuating air temperature, but the low productivity level was the direct cause.Based on the nature characteristics, lessons from history and the current questions of oases, its own assessing system of sustainable development was put forward, which consists three parts, society and environment developments, and the location effect, at the same time the assessing indications were established, whose values of the weights were estimated, by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Simple and practical evaluation models were given, as well as the standard assessing values of every rank were given by using fuzzy mathematics theory, then the sustainable development degree of each rank was estimated for the oasis in Xinjiang. Finally, the thought about the oases sustainable development is that agriculture should be regarded as the base industry, and be modernized positively; there should have some definite object in view of developing industry; tour industry should be emphasized; the development speed of middle and small city should be accelerated; all these should be run through by the sustainable thought and technology on the nature resource and environment, especially on water resource.更多还原