【作者】 李强；

【导师】 管昌生；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 岩土工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 稳定性评价问题是滑坡工程研究的根本问题，也是滑坡研究中最迫切的课题之一，具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。可靠性理论是建立在概率论的基础上，考虑了影响滑坡体稳定的各项随机变量的变异性，并用严格的概率来度量其实际的安全度。因此，可靠性理论对滑坡体稳定的分析和评价就更加符合实际。 完成本课题研究主要依据的是岩体力学及土力学的基本原理和结构可靠度理论。现场实验和室内实验参数的收集、整理分析是基本条件。本文首先介绍了国内外滑坡和可靠性理论的研究现状，对可靠性分析的基本方法进行了讨论。讲述了研究的过程、采用的计算方法、解决的关键技术问题、取得的主要成果以及发展展望，并总结出一些具有规律性的结论。通过清江隔河岩库区杨家槽滑坡的实例计算验证，证明所采用的方法能够满足工程要求，具有广泛的实用价值。 通过对滑坡稳定可靠性分析可知：滑坡工程是非常复杂的一项系统工程、必须采用可靠性分析方法来研究；蒙特卡洛模拟方法是一种独特的数值计算方法，它比较适合于滑坡可靠性分析方法；可靠性分析方法计算结果的准确与否，很大程度决定于计算参数的合理选择；可靠性分析方法在岩土工程中的应用有一个逐步过渡、不断完善的过程。 由于可靠性分析在概念上、方法上和成果表达上都比定值法更为明确和合理，故它在结构工程中的应用日趋广泛。更多还原

【Abstract】 The stability evaluation of landslides, with a very important significance in theoretical researches and a highly practical valuers one of the essential problem as well as one of the most impending projects in the researches of landslides. The variabilities of various random variables which affected the stability of landslides are considered in reliability theory which based on probability theory,and the rigorous probability is used to gain the degree of security in the stability analysis of landslides. As a result ,the reliability theory is more practical in the stability analysis and assessment of landslides.The research of this project is based on the fundamental principle of rock mechanics , soil mechanics and reliability theory.collecting and analyzing the parameter of local site test and laboratory test are basic conditkms.Firstly,this article reviews the recent research state of landslides and reliability theory,discusses the fundamental methods about reliability analysis.lt also describes the research process,calculating methods selected,crucial technical problems solved,primary research productions acquired,prospect of development.and eventually draws some disciplinary conclusions.These conclusions have been verified by analyzing the stability of Yangjiachao landslide in the area of Geheyan reservoir of Qing River.lt means that the adoptive methods can be satisfied with the requirement of pratical engineering and has broad practical value.With the reliability analysis of landslides ,we can get the following conclusions: Landslides engineering is a very complex systemic engineering,which must be studied by the methods of reliabilityanalysis;Monte-carlo simulating method is a unique numerical calculating method,which is comparatively suitable for reliability analysis of landslides;The accuracy of the calculating results of reliability analysis is largely based on the rational selection on the calculating parameters; The application of reliability analysis in rock and soil engineering is a gradual transitional process which makes it incessantly perfect.Reliability analysis is more clear and more rational than determined value method, So it has been broadly applied in structural engineering.更多还原