【作者】 莫善军；

【导师】 冯启民；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 港口、海岸及近海工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以城市供电系统作为研究对象，首先简要概述了国内外学者在城市供电系统抗震可靠性研究领域的现状，分析了现有的一些理论和方法以及存在的问题。当前在供电系统抗震性能研究，仅在有关电气设备单体的抗震分析理论及工程经验方面比较成熟，但针对变电站系统和整体网络系统抗震可靠性研究仍处于萌芽状态，仅对供电系统的抗震可靠性作了粗略地定量描述，还没有考虑其抗震功能状态的定量描述，在失效状态的经济损失的预测方法方面还仅仅是开始。另外应用GIS和MIS技术在城市供电系统防灾管理领域也是刚刚起步。 本文从系统工程的角度深化了城市供电系统抗震可靠度分析方法，把城市供电系统的结构分为系统元件(电气设备)、系统单元(变电站主接线系统)和整个网络系统3个层次，研究了不同层次抗震可靠度计算方法以及整体系统的功能失效影响，并利用GIS技术给出了评价和预测城市供电系统抗震功能状态分析方法和软件，在如下方面取得了有新意的成果： 1．针对变电站主接线系统特点建立设备逻辑关系模型，利用串并联关系对馈线抗震可靠性进行最小路径分析计算；最后确定变电站主接线系统和建构筑物并联关系给出馈线系统抗震可靠性。 2．根据历史地震资料和国家重大工程项目资料，统计了大量我国常用的电气设备在地震加速度峰值条件的平均破坏概率。 3．对于整体供电网络系统进行等效处理，利用网络搜索方法对其进行抗震可靠性进行分析计算。从系统整体安全性角度计算出各个网络中各个变电站的可靠概率。 4．提出了在地震加速度峰值条件下，基于整体供电网的变电站破坏概率的供电系统功能状态模型，从破坏概率角度给出供电网络系统功能状态划分的定量描述。同时，给出了供电系统抗震功能影响区域划分方法。 5．提出了供电系统地震经济损失估计模型，对地震灾害过程中供电系统的经济损失包括四部分：修复重建费用、销售利润损失、供电中断造成的用户停减产损失和停减产而产生的利税损失。 6．利用GIS技术进行供电系统抗震功能分析计算。本论文对ArcGIS平台进行客户化和VBA开发，嵌入地震影响场、供电系统抗震功能失效和地震经济损失等模型，建立城市供电系统抗震功能失效分析计算专用软件，可以动态、直观、有效的对某一城市供电系统抗震性能进行分析展示。 7．以福建省龙岩市供电系统作为分析计算实例，说明了本文提出的方法。首先，对龙岩市供电系统资料数据进行处理，建立了龙岩市供电系统抗震数据库，包括地震小区划、基础空间和供电网络等数据；针对所辖5个变电站主接线系统建立逻辑计算模型，进行抗震可靠性分析计算，同时对整体供电网络系统抗震性能进行分析计算，给出在设定地震作用下供电区域影响场功能失效状态和经济损失估算。更多还原

【Abstract】 An urban electric power system is an important part of urban lifeline systems of modern society, and it is vulnerable during earthquake. In this thesis, the present development condition of study in the field is introduced in detail. The relative methods are used to analyze the seismic reliability of different levels of electric power system, which conclude high-voltage electric equipments, substations and the whole network. Then, seismic function states of the urban electric power system are worked out according to failure probability, also seismic economic losses are worked out, which include direct loss and indirect loss.In this field, the study of the seismic reliability of the high-voltage electric equipments has developed for many years and been mature, but the study of high voltage substation system and the high-voltage electric power network is developing initially. Based on some theory and GIS, some new methods are explored as follows:1. When the reliability of high-voltage substation is computed, configuration and buildings with parallel relationship are considered. The aseismic capability of configuration is computed according to its series-parallel connection law.2. Statistics of average failure probability of high-voltage equipments is calculated, which are based on data from historic earthquake or some results of national projects. It offers a good means in analyzing the reliability of high-voltage equipments.3. A new method is developed for evaluating the power system network, by which the failure probabilities of substations are worked out on the basis of the whole system.4. A model of electric power system function states is brought forward according to the failure probabilities, which considers damage of function and the restoration time etc, by which electric power system function failure states quantificationally are described.5. A model of seismic economic loss of electric power system is put forward and used in the thesis, which considers four kinds of losses: expenditure of equipments fixing and rebuilding, sell profit loss, stopping-reducing production loss and tax loss.6. The analysis of function failure is formulated within ArcGIS platform thatintegrates seismic influence zone model and seismic economic loss model etc. The ArcGIS platform is customized and becomes a special software to analyze the aseismic capability of urban electric power system, which can vividly display result.7. The thesis takes the urban electric power system of LongYan city in FuJian province as an example. The database including electric power network data and seismic data is set up, the analysis results are worked out in condition of a given earthquake, which includes the seismic reliability of five substations, the system and its influence zone function failure states and seismic economic loss.更多还原