【作者】 王莉；

【导师】 田维明；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 产业经济学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 东亚的多数国家和地区是亚太经济合作与发展组织(APEC)的成员，但其中的中国、日本、韩国、台湾和香港目前还没有参与任何多边区域自由贸易协定，而东盟这一东亚唯一的多边区域性组织自成立以来缺乏可观的经济成就。亚洲金融危机的爆发和蔓延使东盟各国认识到加强区域内外合作的重要性，2001年末率先与中国达成在10年内建成自由贸易区的协定。日本等国家和地区惟恐被边缘化，也开始积极推进建立区域经济合作的进程。 然而，东亚国家在社会体制、民族文化、宗教信仰、经济水平等方面存在着巨大差异。通过测算国家间贸易互补性系数(OBC)发现，中国的贸易结构与日本、新加坡、马来西亚存在互补性，但与其余东亚国家和地区呈现竞争关系。日本、韩国等对农业部门长期实行高水平的保护。可以预期，建立东亚自由贸易区将面临较大的困难，农业的开放程度将成为一个的焦点问题。 作为拥有8亿农民的发展中国家，中国在制定参与区域自由贸易组织的重大决策时必须充分考虑对农业部门的影响。本论文采用一般均衡世界贸易模型，模拟计算了五种自由贸易区构建的政策方案产生的影响。这五种方案是：(1)中国与东盟的自由贸易区；(2)中日东盟自由贸易区；(3)中日澳东盟自由贸易区；(4)中日韩东盟自由贸易区；(5)在世界农产品贸易自由化下的东亚自由贸易区。本研究重点分析在不同方案下中国各种农产品市场和贸易的变化，从中得出有关的政策含义。 中国与东盟建立自由贸易区，中国的部分农产品将受到冲击，但程度较小，适当的进口有利于更好地满足中国的需求。日本开放农业部门对中国最为有利，稻米、猪禽肉和蔬菜水果有望获得较大的贸易赢余，但是日本势必面临较大的国内阻力。中国等国可以放宽日本开放稻米市场的要求，推动谈判的进程。美国可能将通过世贸新一轮谈判削弱东亚区域自由贸易的效果，此举很可能得到澳新和其他APEC国家的支持。在此局面下，中国仍可以凭借地理位置优势和部分农产品的竞争力优势，在日本等周边市场上获利，同时从其他国家开放的劳动密集型商品市场上获得好处，增加国家的整体福利，因此也应积极参与新一轮谈判。更多还原

【Abstract】 While China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are all members of the APEC, they have not joined in any multilateral FTA. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has achieved limited success in regional economic development since its founding. After the Asian Crisis, ASEAN countries recognize the importance of economic cooperation among themselves and with other countries in Asia. Under such a situation, China and ASEAN initiated in November 2001 negotiations on establishment of China-ASEAN free trade area within 10 years. In order to avoid being excluded from this market, Japan and Korea also accelerated the process of forming FTAs.However, there exist huge differences in geographical conditions, social systems, cultures and economic levels among Asian countries. Besides, China tend to compete with most ASEAN member in the affluent Asian markets, such as Japan and Singapore, as revealed by the calculated overall bilateral complementarity (OBC). So far, Japan and Korea remain high protection on their agricultural sector. It can be anticipated that the establishment of FTAs in East Asian will meet many difficulties and the openness of agricultural market will be one of the focal points in the negotiation.Being a developing country with 800 millions farmers, China needs to consider the potential impacts of FTAs on agricultural development. This paper use the GTAP model to simulate the economic effects of five different FTA proposals: (1) China-ASEAN, (2) China-Japan-ASEAN, (3) China-Japan-Australia and New Zealand-ASEAN, (4) China (including Taiwan and Hong Kong) -Japan-Korea-ASEAN, (5) China (including Taiwan and Hong Kong)-Japan-Korea-ASEAN FTA under the further multilateral liberalization of agriculture trade. The analysis places a focus on assessing impacts on China’s agricultural market and trade by different FTAs. Policy implications are discussed based on the findings.The results reveal that establishment of FTA between China and ASEAN has limited impacts on China’s agricultural sector. In contrast, China is benefited significantly when Japan gets to be involved into FTAs, which allows China to increase exports of rice, pork, poultry meat, vegetables and fruits to Japan. However, this is unlikely to be the case in near future due to political factors in Japan. In order to push forward the process, China may make concessions to Japan with respect to rice market liberalization. On the other hand, the USA will probably uses the new round of WTO negotiations to weaken the trade-diversion effect of East Asia FTAs, which may get support from Australia, New Zealand and some other APEC countries. Nevertheless, China can still gain from improved access to the Japanese and Korean markets by taking its advantages in geographic location and high competitiveness in some products. In the meantime, China can be also benefited from the worldwide trade liberalization, especially for those labor-intensive products. Therefore, China should take part in the WTO negotiations in an active manner.更多还原