【作者】 周国娜；

【导师】 高宝嘉； 黄选瑞；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 森林保护， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 根据地理信息系统在病虫害方面的应用及其特有的空间分析功能，结合病虫害发生的特点和相关的统计分析方法，探索了GIS在森林病虫害管理中的应用。分析了滦平县油松毛虫的发生程度和生态地理因素之间的关系，并将地理信息系统应用于河北省森林病虫害地理区划，其结果如下： (1)通过主分量分析得出在滦平县影响油松毛虫发生程度的因素中，没有特别突出的影响因素，各因素的影响程度均不大，各因素是通过综合作用对油松毛虫的发生程度产生影响。林分因子与地形因子相比，林分因子对油松毛虫的影响较大。 (2)根据逐步回归分析，发现油松毛虫的发生程度与坡度、林分密度、冠幅、主林层郁闭度和轮枝数之间呈密切的负相关，与龄组呈密切的正相关关系。在此基础之上通过通径分析，得知对油松毛虫发生程度产生影响的是多因素综合作用的结果，其直接作用均大于间接作用的影响，在间接影响中均是通过影响油松的生长而对其产生作用的。 (3)根据替加分析，各个因素水平的不同组合，对油松毛虫发生程度的影响不同。结果如下：在坡度为6°～25°之间，主林层郁闭度为0.3～0.7的范围内，林分密度在1000～2000株/公顷之间，且轮枝数在5～10轮，冠幅在1～3m之间的中龄林中，容易造成油松毛虫的大发生，其它条件下油松毛虫发生较轻或不发生。 (4)根据调查的样点数据，利用逐步判别分析方法，建立了油松毛虫发生的预测预报模型，其回判准确率达到了88％，在生产上有一定的应用价值。并利用地理信息系统对其判别结果进行分析处理，可以使其结果可视化。为进一步指导病虫害预测、防治工作提供了理论依据，对实际生产具有较大的指导意义，可以有效的避免工作的盲目性。 (5)本文尝试利用地理信息系统对河北省森林主要病虫害的区划进行了研究，根据各生态地理区内森林和病虫害分布的明显不同，按生态地理区划把河北省分成6个省级区9个亚区。在不同的区域内，由于自然条件及主要树种分布有着明显的不同，其病虫害的种类、发生面积及防治重点存在着较大的差异。树种种类越多，且具有一定的分布面积，其病虫害发生的种类少且面积小，反之，则病虫害的发生面积人、种类多。通过地理信息系统的分析结果可以针对不同区域内森林枪被分布的不同、病虫害发生情况的差异制定不同的预测方茶、防治措施及＿厂程治理规划等。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the application of geography information system in the reseach of plant diseases and pests and its peculiar spatial analytical function, combining with the characteristics of the occurrence of the plant diseases and pests and related statistical methods, the application of the geography information system in the management of plant diseases and pests was further quested. In this paper, the relationship between the occurrence degree of the Chinese pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus punctatus fabulaeformis Tsai et Liu) and the ecological geography factor in Luan Ping county was analyzed, and the geography information system was also applied to the forest diseases and pests geography regionalization of Hebei, the result is as follows:1 Through the principal component analysis, there is no special outstanding influence factor affecting the occurrence degree of the Chinese pine caterpillar in Luan Ping county. All the effects of each factors on the Chinese pine caterpillar was net great. Each factors affected the occurrence degree of the Chinese pine caterpillar through their synthetical function. The stands factor is more influential than geography factor.2 According to the line regression analysis and stepwise regression analysis, the occurrence degree of the Chinese pine caterpillar was positively related to the age group and negatively related to the gradient, density of forest, canopy breadth, canopy density of the main stand layer, number of whorled branches. By the further path analysis, the synthetical function of many factors which effected the damage degree of the Chinese pine caterpillar was confirmed. The direct impacts on the Chinese pine caterpillar were all greater than indirect impacts, and the indirect impacts on the Chinese pine caterpillar were taken by affecting the growth of the pine.3.By overly operation analysis, each factor has different influences on the occurrence degree of the Chinese pine caterpillar in different condition. The conditions could give rise to the outbreak of the Chinese pine caterpillar were that: the canopy density of the main stand layer was in 0.3 to 0.7, number of whorled branches ranging from 5 to 10, forest density was in 1000 to 2000 individual plant per hectare, the gradient was in 6 to 25 , age group was middle age, canopy breadth was in the rangeof 1 m to 3 m.4. Based on the inquisitional sample data, gradually distinguish analyze method, the estimate and forecast model occurrence degree of the Chinese pine caterpillar was established, Its accurate rate reached ?88%. The distinguish result is analyzed bygeography information system, and the result was made be visual. It offers theoreticbasis. To guide the plant diseases and insect peats esimate and control.5. The geography information system was used to divide the area of the main forest disesses and pests in Hebei. According to obvious difference of the forest diseases and insect pests in each ecological geography area, the area can be divided into 6 provincial class areas and 9 second areas in Hebei. In different districts, natural conditions and main trees distribution are obviously different, and the species, occurrence area, and the control emphasis of forest diseases and pests were greatly various. The pest’ species number and outbreak area are lower in the area that has more species of trees and more tree distribution rate. Contrarily, they are greater in the area that has fewer species of trees. Through the analysis result of the geography information system, the forecast project, control measure, and engineering management programming can be established aiming at the distribution of forest plant and occurrence degree of the forest diseases pests in different district.更多还原