【作者】 潘沁；

【导师】 张大松；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 科学技术哲学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文第一部分，分析了卡尔纳普概率确证归纳逻辑体系产生的历史背景与原因。归纳疑难与证实困惑是卡尔纳普概率确证理论产生的直接原因。早在18世纪，哲学家休谟就提出了对由特称陈述过渡到全称陈述的合理性的怀疑，否认归纳推理的合理性，从而否定了科学的合理性。这就是著名的“休谟问题”、“归纳问题”。逻辑实证主义者承认科学的合理性，并提出了系统的证实理论。但他们的证实理论遭到了很多人的批评，因为证实原则不仅使形而上学命题无法证实，而且科学命题也得不到证实，于是逻辑实证主义者降低了证实标准。卡尔纳普建议用“确证”代替证实，并试图通过对确证的量化研究来回答“休谟问题”，为归纳逻辑的合理性奠定逻辑基础。由于受概率逻辑发展的启发，卡尔纳普用“概率”作为研究归纳逻辑的基础。数理逻辑的发展对卡尔纳普的思想具有深刻的影响，为他的哲学研究提供了方法论工具。卡尔纳普在数学与逻辑方面的造诣，使他能够利用概率逻辑、数理逻辑的方法作为工具来研究归纳确证问题，从而构建了他的概率确证逻辑体系。 本文第二部分，介绍了卡尔纳普概率确证理论的基本内容。卡尔纳普在建立该体系之前，先解释了确证与确证度两个概念，对证实与确证的涵义进行了区别。他认为，证实是决定性地最后为真，而确证只是现阶段得到确定，并不保证以后也确定为真；继而分析了概率1与概率2两者之间的区别与联系；然后构建了一阶语言系统，并在其中定义了状态描述、结构描述、量程等重要概念与定理，以便使在考察归纳逻辑前提与结论时，能在该系统中根据确切的规则进行准确的分析。在构建的语言系统中，引入了测度函数m、确证函数c，其中测度函数是确证函数的基础，由语句所满足的状态描述的测度函数m值来确定确证函数c的值，研究了归纳确证问题。 本文第三部分，评述了卡尔纳普概率确证理论的逻辑与方法论意义。卡尔纳普的概率确证理论通过对归纳逻辑的形式化对“休谟问题”作出了有价值的回答，为科学理论的合理性提供了逻辑基础，但由于他的理论存在的缺陷，使 二油已0硕士学位论文 iy MASDR’S几回S这个问题并没有得到解决。卡尔纳普通过对归纳逻辑与演绎逻辑的比较，认为它们具有很多相似性，从而为归纳逻辑确立了应有的地位，对人们正确认识归纳逻辑的作用具有重要的意义。卡尔纳普的确证理论是以概率作为基础，他沿着概率的发现发展了现代归纳逻辑，使归纳逻辑的研究向形式化和数量化研究大大前进了一步。 本文第四部分，分析了卡尔纳普的概率逻辑确证理论存在的局限性以及后人对其理论的修正与发展。由于卡尔纳普的概率逻辑确证理论建立在概率先验性基础上，因而不能精确刻画确证函数的值，遭到了格莱憬尔等人的批评，从而使人们认识到归纳逻辑的研究应与人类的认识规律相结合。卡尔纳普的概率逻辑确证理论虽以量化为特征，但它只考虑证据的数量而忽视了证据的客观效用差异，这一局限性使以后对归纳逻辑的研究更注重科学的事实。由于卡尔纳普的理论是由含有限个体的语言系统扩展到含有无限个体的语言系统中，导致其理论使普遍原理的确证度为0，从而无法合理解释普遍原理的确证度。由于这些局限性的存在，促使了后来的哲学家对归纳理论的修正与进一步研究，二十世纪五十年代后，归纳逻辑的研究出现了非概率化、局部化发展趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 The background and reasons of Rudolf Carnap’s theory of confirmation analyzed from three aspects in the first part of the paper. The problem of induction and principal of verifiability leads to Carnap’s theory directly. At the 18th century,the philosophy Hume doubted general statement can induct from purticular statement,which called "Hume problem "and "induction problem" . This problem negated the rationality of science.Logical empirist agreed the reason of science and producted systematical theory of verifiability ,but the principal of verifiability suffered from criticism because it negated the verifiability of science propsition. Logical empirist had to lower the criterion of the principal of verifiability. At this time, Carnap suggested "confirmation" principal. He studied the numeral confirmation to answer the "Hume problem" and seached the logical basis of science. Carnap gained inspiration from the development of probability logic,so he made "probability" a basis of his inductive theory. The method of mathematics logic also had great influence on Camap.He was good at mathematics and symbol logic,so he could study the problem of confirmation with the tool of the methods of mathematical logic and probability logic to construct inductive logical system of the theory of probability confirmation.Carnap’s inductive logical system of the theory of probability confirmation is introduced in the second part of paper.Firstly, some basical and important concepts are explained such as confirmation and degree of confirmation,probability1 and probability2. In Carnap’s opinion, the difference between verifiability and confirmation is that verifiability means the hypothesis is finally proved to be true,but confirmation means it be true nowerdays. Then Carnap analyzed the distinction and relationship between probabilityi and probability2. In order to made his theory of confirmation have exact rules, he constructed a first-order logical language system and gave the definitions and theorems to some important conceptssuch as state description, structure desciption and the range of state description etc. In the given language system, some functions such as m-function,C-function etc.collected with the theory of inductive confirmation are introduced, m-function is the basis of C-function.The logical and methodological significance of Carnap’s inductive logical system of the theory of probability confirmation is accounted in the third part of paper. Carnap’s theory has important value. Firstly, Carnap answered the famous question of inductive logic problem which is also called "Hume problem" in philosophy history in particular way.i.e, he made the format of inductive logic into reality, though his theory had some limitations and couldn’t solve this problem completly.He also supplied the logical basis to science’s reason. Secondly, Carnap anlalyzed the distinction and similarity between inductive logic and deductive logic whice made people can clearly know the worth of inductive logic which is important the same with deductive logic.Thirdly, he advanced the development of modern inductive logics in the way of format and mumeral.The defects and mendings of Carnap’s logical system of the theory of probability confirmation are accounted in the forth part of paper. Firstly, Carnap’s theory is based on priori, so his theory does not give exact number to the degree of confirmation,which leaded the study of induction collected with people’s cognitive ability. Secondly, Carnap studied the numeral confirmation,he gave attentions on the mumber of evidence,but neglected the effectiveness of evidence,which leaded to the study of induction collected with the science facts . Thirdly, his theory can’t solve the problem that general proposition’s degree of confirmation is zero because his theory is restricted in the range of language. These defects leaded to the study methods of inductive logics turning to non-probability from probability, from global to local after the 1950s.更多还原