中国外汇储备规模过度问题研究

【作者】 雷建维；

【导师】 戴中；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 政治经济学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 自1994年以来，我国外汇储备迅猛增加，到2003年，已接近3000亿美元，仅次于日本，位列全球第二。这个现象使理论界和实际部门都在思索这样几个问题：我国外汇储备规模是否过度?为什么我国外汇储备强劲增长?高额外汇储备对经济增长是否存在负面影响?对如此多的外汇储备该如何管理、如何投资才能发挥最大效益?在实际生活中，我国政府更多的考虑外汇储备的正面影响而忽视其负面影响，有鉴于此，本文在论证了我国外汇储备过度的基础上，提出我国应该均衡考虑外汇储备的正负面影响和确保外汇储备适度规模的理论和现实途径。 本文分为四个部分：第一部分从国际收支分析入手，从国际收支角度分析我国外汇储备的基础，得出我国外汇储备来自国际收支双顺差，而且大部分来源于经常项目顺差的结论。第二部分使用国际上流行的几种方法，分析我国外汇储备规模，得出我国外汇储备规模过度的结论；第三部分分析过度外汇储备的制度和经济原因以及外汇储备对我国经济的影响；第四部分提出相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese foreign exchange reserve has increased rapidly since 1994. By 2003, FER is the second place in the world, less than Japan, and the number is $300 billion. This phenomenon makes scholars and practical department think such problems like: Whether our FER scale is excessive? Why our FER has increased so rapidly? Whether the excessive FER has the negative effect to economic increase? How to manage and invest in order to get best effect?The paper has four parts, the main points as follows:Part one analyses the basement of our FER on the point of balance of payments. Then, I get conclusions as our FER comes from the balance of payments double-surplus and a large part from current account. Part two makes use of popular methods to analyze our foreign exchange reserve scale and get the conclusion that our FER scale is excessive. Part three analyzes the institution and economic reasons of excessive FER scale and the influence to our economy. Part four puts forward of some suggestions.更多还原