【作者】 高爱霞；

【导师】 陈艳艳；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人们对高质量服务需求的增加，许多系统如电力系统、供水系统、通讯系统等早已把可靠度分析纳入到他们的计划、设计及操作当中。然而，可靠度的概念在交通系统中一直以来并未受到重视。只是近年来，随着人们对时间价值的重视，使得出行时间和出行延误成为道路使用者最为关心的问题，因此，交通系统的稳定性变得非常重要。道路使用者要求交通网络具有高度的可靠性，以确保他们的出行在自己预期的时间范围内。可靠度作为一个非常重要的概率测度参数能有效的评价交通网络的运行状态，特别是由于外界因素的干扰使得交通需求和道路的供应条件发生变化时，更能体现这一概率指标的适用性。本论文首先在阅读有关研究文献的基础上，对各种可靠度的概念及进展进行了分析，得出目前可靠度的研究主要有连通可靠度，运行时间可靠度，容量可靠度，畅通可靠度。并对各种可靠度的计算方法进行了分析与评述，针对快速路交通运行的特点，选择运行时间可靠度作为本课题的研究对象。本文从交通系统的动态性分析入手，分析了快速路交通系统运行时间可靠度的影响因素。为了构筑快速路运行时间可靠度模型，避免问题的复杂化，首先研究的是在没有偶发事件发生情况下的可靠度。仅考虑交通需求的随机变化，运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法，建立了快速路运行时间的可靠度的计算模型，并用一个简单的算例对此模型进行了应用。偶发事件影响下的快速路运行时间的可靠度模型，考虑了偶发事件对司机路线选择行为的影响，采用随机分配模型确定路段流量。其次，偶发事件严重的影响了道路的供应条件，因此采用传统的道路实际通行能力的计算方法来计算考虑偶发事件影响下的道路实际通行能力不再合适，基于此研究了利用人工神经网络技术计算路段实际通行能力的方法，在此基础上建立了偶发事件影响下的可靠度计算流程更多还原

【Abstract】 With increasing demands for better reliable service, many systems (e.g. electrical power systems, water distributions, communication networks, etc.) have incorporate reliability analysis as an integral part in their planning, design, and operation. However, reliability analysis has received little or not attention in the study in transportation systems in the past. In recent times the stability of road networks has become an increasing important issue, since the value of time has increased considerably and unexpected delay can results in substantial loss to road users. Road networks are now required to have high degree reliability to ensure drivers smooth travel under normal traffic flow fluctuations and to avoid serious unexpected delays for disruptions within the network. Road network reliability has now become an important performance measure for evaluating road networks, especially when considering changes in OD traffic demand and link flow capacity over time. According to the literature about reliability of road network, there exist several concept of reliability of road network in the world, namely connectivity reliability, travel time reliability, capacity reliability, and unblocked reliability. On the basis of studying the characteristic of urban expressway, we choired the travel time reliability as our study target. This paper investigates the transportation network reliability (in terms of travel time reliability) based on the randomicity analysis of demand-supply. Two models are formulated for calculating travel time reliability of urban expressway: the first model, in which the occasional incidents (e.g. traffic accidents, road maintain, poor weather etc.) are not considered, focuses on the fluctuations of origin-destination (OD) demand. A Monte Carlo simulation procedure is developed to estimate the travel time reliability. The application of the proposed model is illustrated by a numerical example; The other model take into account the disturbance arising from randomly incidents, in which the Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model assuming user’s route choice behavior under uncertain network condition is incorporated in the travel time reliability model. Due to large variability associated with link capacities result<WP=8>from the interrupting of randomly incidents, this paper adopt the technique of BP neural network to calculate the actual capacity更多还原