【作者】 费鲜芸；

【导师】 赵庚星；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 土壤学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文首先分析了山东省建国以来耕地总量、人口、粮食单产以及国民生产总值、国民收入、工农业生产总产值等的动态状况。并根据现有资料的情况，以52年-93年时间段的数据资料为基础，利用SAS统计软件为分析工具，对山东省的耕地变化及驱动因子进行了分析。先利用聚类分析方法结合主成分分析把52年-93年分为五个时间段：52年－59年、60年-67年、68年－81年、82年－87年、88年－93年。再对每一个时间段进行主成分分析，结果显示各个时间段的第一主成分和第二主成分的累积贡献率都达到85%以上，说明前两个主成分基本包含了全部指标具有的信息。根据第一主成分和第二主成分的特征向量计算各时间段的第一主成分和第二主成分的指标值。并分析得出各个时间段的耕地变化驱动因子。利用85年和98年两期土地利用现状图，以MAPGIS6.0为空间分析工具，研究山东省耕地的空间格局的变化。首先把两期土地利用现状图扫描矢量化后分别生成区文件，再利用南方GPS数据处理软件查取地理经纬网交点的80国家统一坐标作为理论值，对两期土地利用现状图进行误差校正，并由用户自定义坐标转化到80国家统一坐标，经检查符合精度要求后，进行空间叠加等分析,并将空间分析结果输出到外部数据库处理软件，得出土地利用变化转移矩阵。由此提取耕地的空间结构变化信息，并根据其变化的空间特征分析耕地变化的驱动因子。从以上两方面的研究分析可以得出：山东省耕地数量的变化在各个不同时期，其驱动因子有所不同；在空间上山东省耕地变化向经济效益最大化这一方向转化，且这种变化明显受地形和土地利用本身特性的限制及影响。研究发现山东省存在着明显的耕地变化频率较高的地区，这些地区应是山东省耕地变化及驱动因子研究的重点地区。这些结果对摸清山东省人口、经济发展和耕地变化的关系，合理利用及保护耕地，保持经济社会的可持续发展有重要的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the beginning the study is focused on the state of developments of cultivated land, population, gross domestic product, and national income and so on in Shandong Province after liberation. According to owned data, the author studied the changes of cultivated land quantities and driving factors from 1952-1959 .The methods used in the study are known as clustering analysis, principal component analysis with the tool of SAS. Firstly, according to average linkage method, the centroid method and principal component analysis, the time from 1952 to 1993 was divided into five periods: 1952-1959,1960-1967, 1968-1981, 1982-1987 and 1988-1993. Then utilizing principal component analysis, the author analyzed the data of each period and concluded that the first and second principal component’s accumulative proportion is more than 85 percent. Therefore, it is shown that the first and second principal component basically contains all the information in the quota above. Indexes of the first and second principal component can be calculated according to their eigenvectors, so driving factors of each period can be indicated.In this paper the change of cultivated land spatial characteristics of Shandong Province is studied on the basis of the land use maps of 1985 and 1998 using mapgis6.0. The author modified the two graphs into vector graphs by screen digitization. All the geographical coordinates are turned into 80 national united coordinates which were taken as their academic values to correct the land use maps, and the coordinates of all the maps are turned into the united coordinates after correction. Finally, by spatial analysis, a changes map of land use from 1985 to 1998 can be obtained. The author made careful study on the influence factors of the changes of cultivated land according to their characteristics in spatial contribution. <WP=6>Based on all the studies, the author can get some conclusions, firstly driving factors are different with the different periods, secondly changes of cultivated land in Shandong Province are consistent with the maximum economic profit, thirdly they are limited by the complex terrain and the character of land use and we can get some areas they are more sensitive and more worth being studied. These findings are profound for further research on the promotion of cultivated land, in addition to its relation with economic development in Shandong Province.更多还原