【作者】 马晓钰；

【导师】 熊黑钢；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 自然地理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 中共十六大指出，解决收入分配差距扩大、城乡和东、中、西部经济发展不平衡问题是全面建设小康社会的难点所在，由此对西部大开发提出新的更高的要求，说明没有西部的现代化就没有中国的现代化，我国要实现现代化，重点在于西部。而对于和田这样的西部贫困地区，如何达到小康社会，首先在于脱贫，走可持续发展之路，以缩小差距为目的，为全面建设小康社会奠定基础。 和田地处偏远，生存环境恶劣，少数民族聚居，经济以较为原始的农业生产为主，成为当地相对封闭、发展落后的先天因素，使和田成为干旱区贫困的典型，深陷入“环境脆弱—贫困—掠夺资源—环境退化—刺激人口增加—进一步贫困”的贫困、人口、环境的“PPE”怪圈。而和田人口密度(10.27人/平方公里)远大于干旱区人口密度极限(7人/平方公里)，由于人口都集中在绿洲，绿洲的人口密度(169.47人/平方公里)超过全国平均水平(129.4人/平方公里)，由此，在生态环境恶劣、生存资料有限的情况下，和田人口数量过多使其更难以摆脱贫困，人口数量成为加剧干旱区贫困的基本因子之一。 本文应用封闭人口理论与人口再生产理论，根据和田实际的人口增长状况，从人口增长的相关内在因素(生育角度和年龄构成)和外在表现(人口自然增长率)选取人口再生产中具有代表性的总和生育率TFR、净人口再生产率NRR、人口内在自然增长率K、预期寿命e~0_x、年龄构成、人口自然增长率r这几项指标，利用第四、五次人口普查数据，分析计算得出和田在1990年左右，TFR为4.99，比全国、全疆分别高2.68和1.77，说明妇女总和生育率极高，在死亡率相对稳定的情况下(e~0_x已达68岁)，生育对当地人口增长起了巨大的拉动力。NRR为2.36大于1，表明此时人口再生产类型是扩大再生产类型，如果人口保持此阶段人口再生产状况长期发展下去，人口将按一个固定增长率K=28.889‰发展下去，产生巨大的人口基数。到2000年，和田的总和生育率TFR已降至2.2，与全国、全疆的差距有所下降，同时NRR=1，K=0也说明在2000年前后如果和田保持稳定的人口再生产，则人口增长将处于长远内在的静止型趋势，但由于先前的人口快速增长造成巨大的人口基数，以及人口年龄结构轻，人口再生产的惯性作用，人口的增长并未表现出静止的状态，相反还以较快的自然增长率增长，由此说明，和田人口再生产并非稳定，达到长远内在的静止型趋势还需一定时间。同样，年龄构成指标从静态和动态角度出发也反映出和田在近20年前后是属于高出生、低死亡、高增长的过渡阶段的人口再生产类型，年龄结构较为年轻。并且应用和田、全国、全疆近50年的人口自然增长率对比分析得出，在70年代中后期之前，全国和全疆的平均人口自然增长率大于和田地区，但总的来说，和田的自然增长率也高达15.76‰。而到70年代中后期之后，由于计划生育政策的全面贯彻，全国和全疆的人口自然增长率大幅下降至稳定状态， ．H．． ＋ 而和田地区由子受到封闭环境和宽松的计划生育政策的影响依旧保持原有的人口增 长弹性，人口自然增长率大于全国和全疆。在近几年人口自然增长率呈下降状态， 但在下一个生育高峰期时又会表现出较高的自然增长率。 从内在相关因素和外在表现分析说明和田地区目前人口增长较快，维持这种增 长的时间较长，从而造成巨大的人口基数，使得人口分母效应显著。过多的人口数 量影响了当地可持续发展，致使人口数量问题与土地、耕地、粮食等各种资源发生 矛盾，人均资源量的增长始终赶不上资源总量的增长，即资源的增长始终小于人口 的增长，使得每年新增的有限资源被无限增长的人口所吞噬，一些生存资源由于人 口的不断增长而消耗过多，面临资源短缺的危机。由此，生存资源减少的压力和人 类活动增多的压力使本身脆弱的生态环境逆向演替的威胁加重。人口数量过大、资 源短缺、生态环境恶劣反映在经济上则表现为贫困。而人口是“PPE”怪圈中唯一 的具有能动性的因子，又位于可持续发展的基础层，人口数量问题给当地脱贫工作 带来了困难，所以要想达到全面小康社会的目标，解决和田不可持续问题就需要找 出贫困怪圈的症结，要首先解决人口问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sixteenth convention of Chinese Communist reported that solving the problems about the expanding earning, economic imbalance between the city and country and the imbalance among the east, central part and west is the difficulty to the building of wealth society. It sets up higher requirements to the western development. If there is no western modernization, there is no Chinese modernization. The key to realize the modernization is at the west. To Hetian such a poverty region, the first step to get the wealth society is staying away the poverty and developing toward the sustainable development. It should reduce the gap to make the basement to build the wealth society completely.It is remote, and the exist environment is very bad. Most people are the ethnic people. The main economy is the primal agriculture. All of these become the congenital of obturation and dropping behind to make the Hetian typical arid poverty. Hetian plunges into the vicious circle of "PPE"(population, poverty and environment). The population density (10.27) is higher than the standard of arid land (7). Because most people live in the oasis, the oasis population density gets the 169.47, higher than the Chinese average standard (129.4). Under the condition of bad exist environmentand limited exist resources, more population means it is difficult to get rid of poverty. Population number becomes one of most importane factors to deteriorate the arid poverty.This paper uses the theories of obturation and population reproduction. Basing the reality of population growth in Hetian, I choose the index of TFR, NRR, K, e0x, age structure and r. Relying on the fourth and fifth population census, I get TFR is 4.99, which is higher than Chinese average and Xinjiang average about 2.68 and 1.77. That means women’ s total birthrate is very high. Under the condition of steady deathrate, bearing becomes a strong pull to the population growth. NRR is 2.36(higher than 1), and it shows that population reproduction is the expanding reproduction. If the population now develops toward the steady reproduction, population will grow at the rate of 28.889%, and then it make the big population number. While in the 2000, the TFR reduces to the 2.2, and the gap with the Chinese and Xinjiang standard reduce, too. At the same time, NRR is 1 and K is0, which show that if Hetian keep the steady reproduction, population will get the quiescence. Because the previously quick growth of population, young population age structure and the inertial effect of the reproduction, population growth is not quiescence; on the contrary, it grows very quickly. So, population reproduction is not steady, and the get to the permanent steady quiescence need a long time. From the age structure, it also shows that during these twenties years, Hetian belong to the intergraded reproduction of high birthrate, low death rate and high growth rate. I also use the 50years data to contrast the natural growth rate among the Hetian, Chinese and Xinjiang average standard. The result is that before the mid- after of 70’s, the natural growth rate of Chinese and Xinjiang average standard is higher than Hetian, but Hetian also gets to the 15.76%. While after the mid- after of 70’s, the natural growth rate of Chinese and Xinjiang average standard become to reduce and then get to the steady condition because of the family planning. Under the condition of obturation and loose family planning, Hetian population growth keep the former growth elasticity, and the population natural growth rate is higher than Chinese and Xinjiang average standard. Although the natural growth rate is low these years, at the next birth flood tide, it will show higher.From the analyse of in -out index, we know that Hetian population grows quickly and keeps such condition for a long time. This causes a large number of population and makes the population denominator effect obviously. Overfull population affects the regional sustainable development, and causes contradiction between the population number and the land, food and更多还原