【作者】 张换高；

【导师】 檀润华；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 机械制造及其自动化， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 TRIZ理论认为任何产品都是由核心技术支撑的技术系统。技术系统处于不断的进化过程中，其进化过程类似于生物的成长过程，要经历婴儿期、成长期、成熟期和退出期四个阶段，在时域上表现为特性参数沿S-曲线的增长。当前产品在技术系统进化过程中的位置就是其技术成熟度，预测当前产品技术成熟度的过程就是产品技术成熟度预测。 对于处于多变市场环境中的企业来说，产品技术成熟度是其制定战略、进行技术贸易的重要参考指标，也是其确定局部创新和系统创新的投入比例、把握创新时机的重要依据。可以帮助企业认清自身技术的发展水平和发展潜力，审时度势地进行技术创新，降低投资风险，提高投资效益，营造和保持企业的竞争优势。 基于对技术系统进化过程的分析，提出产品技术成熟度及其预测的定义，并从多方面讨论了进行产品技术成熟度预测的重要意义。 通过分析现有的产品技术成熟度预测方法，发现这些方法在数据获取、算法、准确性等方面存在一些问题。综合现有成果，并结合我国当前的实际，提出了一种新的基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测模型，并讨论了基于该模型的产品生命周期的划分和产品技术成熟度组合判据以及应用该组合判据进行产品技术成熟度预测的算法和步骤。 在分析软件需求的基础上，应用第二代面向对象的技术——Fushion法对产品技术成熟度预测软件TMMS进行了系统分析，建立了对象模型和界面模型，并以VC++6.0为平台进行了程序设计。该软件包括专利的统计分析、曲线拟合和算法实现。 最后应用所提出的产品技术成熟度预测技术和所设计的软件对我国蝶阀产品的技术成熟度进行了研究，并对预测结果进行了讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 TRIZ points that all products are "technical systems" based on the core technology. The technical system evolves over time, which process parallels the micro-evolution of biological systems and illustrates the life cycle stages of child, growth, maturity and decline. What evolves is the characteristic index of the technical systems whose improvement is shown by a s-curve on the time-scale. The position of current product on its evolution calls the technology maturity of the product (TM) and the process of identifying TM calls the technology maturity mapping (TMM).To enterprises that live in a changeful market, the index of TM is an important guideline for laying a course and trading technology. It also is a crucial reference for choosing the valid proportion between systematic innovation and partial innovation, by which enterprise can hold the chance for innovation. The TM helps enterprise weigh up his level and potential of technology. So that it can make innovation considering the situation, reduce the risk and increase the profit on investment, and gain and keep an advantage of competition.Based on an analysis of process of technical system evolution, this thesis puts forward the definition of TM of product and TMM, and discusses the importance of doing TMM from multi-angles.After analyzed the existing methods of the technology maturity mapping, some defects can be detected in these methods on the aspects of data acquiring, algorithm, veracity and so on. By integrating all the existing fruit and considering the condition of our country, a new model of the technology maturity mapping that applies patent analysis is put forward. And the phases of product lifecycle divided by the new model, the resultant items for justifying the TM as well as the algorithm and approaches using these items are discussed.On the basis of requirement analysis of the software, system analysis is done by using the Fashion Method that represents the second-generation object-oriented technology, and the object model as well as the interface model is developed. The program design has been finished on the platform of VC++6.0. The software includes patents analysis and statistic, curve fit and algorithm implementation.Eventually the technology maturity of the butterfly valve is mapped by using the method put forward by this thesis and the software, and the result is discussed.更多还原