走向21世纪的中国与东盟经贸关系分析研究

【作者】 蒋兴红；

【导师】 潘德平； 刘崇仪；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 现代科学技术和生产力的高速发展已使经济全球化成为世界经济不可逆转的发展趋势，而当前经济全球化的一个重要特征就是区域经济合作空前发展。亚洲地区在区域经济合作上明显落后于世界其他地区，这与其在世界经济中的重要地位极不相称，各国都在积极寻求区域经济合作的机会。2001年11月，中国提出建立中国－东盟自由贸易区。2002年11月，双方签署《中国－东盟全面经济合作框架协议》，正式启动建立中国－东盟自由贸易区的进程。中国－东盟自由贸易区的提出及其建设必将对中国和东盟的经贸关系产生重大而深远的影响，而自由贸易区只有建立在高度发达的区内贸易基础上才会充分发挥其贸易创造、市场扩大和竞争促进等经济功效。因此，现在和今后较长时间内加强对中国与东盟双边经贸的研究极具理论意义和现实意义。本文旨在通过对双边经贸现状及其竞争与互补研究，提出相应的战略与策略，以促进双边经贸的大发展，充分发挥自由贸易区对经济的巨大拉动作用，实现双方建立自由贸易区的初衷。研究中国与东盟经贸关系，必须解决以下问题：中国与东盟经贸关系现状如何？中国与东盟内部不同发展阶段的单个国家经贸状况如何？中国与东盟的经贸竞争与互补何在？发展中国与东盟经贸关系有哪些有利条件和限制因素？如何进一步推进走向21世纪的中国与东盟经贸合作？本文通过对这些问题的回答，对双边经贸进行了分析和研究，并在此基础上提出了发展战略和对策。本文主要采用实证分析的方法，运用大量的经贸历史数据，对中国和东盟经贸关系进行介绍和分析。在介绍中国与东盟经贸关系国别情况时，将东盟国家按照经贸规模、贸易结构特点和相互投资水平统计分组进行分析，以充分挖掘双方的优势与互补。在分析中国与东盟经贸竞争与互补时，借用贸易专业化指数（TSI）、产业内贸易指数（IIT）、皮尔逊相关系数（Pearson Coefficient）、显示比较优势指数（RCA）等统计指标，通过对中国与东盟经贸历史数据的计算和比较，<WP=3>来说明双方的互补与优势。同时，本文十分注重数据的新颖性，对于可能收集到的最新数据，力求及时纳入文中，以展示中国与东盟经贸发展的最新状况。本文在写作中采取由点及面、由浅入深的逻辑思路，从经贸概况的介绍到经贸互补的分析，从东盟各国分组介绍到东盟整体分析，从问题的分析到对策的提出，从整体战略到具体措施，体现了全文结构的逻辑性。全文大体分为两个部分：第一部分是全文分析的基础，主要对中国和东盟经贸关系概况进行介绍，具体包括第一章和第二章；第二部分是本文的主体部分，在第一部分概况介绍的基础上，运用实证分析的方法分析了中国和东盟的经贸互补，以及发展双方经贸的有利条件和限制因素，并对进一步发展面向21世纪的双方经贸关系提出了应对战略和具体措施，这一部分包括第三章和第四章。各章具体内容如下：前言：本部分简要介绍了本文的写作背景，引出本文写作的意义与目的，交待了全文的基本思路和逻辑结构。第一章 中国与东盟经贸关系综述本章从中国与东盟经贸关系的历史发展和现状两个角度来叙述，是全文构架的基础。在对中国与东盟双边经贸发展历史回顾中，根据双边经贸发展的规模，将其分为三个阶段介绍，展现出一幅中国与东盟经贸初期发展、稳步发展和迅速发展的画卷。对中国与东盟经贸合作的现状，利用最新的统计数据从双方的商品进出口、服务贸易、相互投资、国际经济合作以及区域经济合作开发等五个方面来进行描述。第二章 中国与东盟国家经贸关系：国别分组介绍本章是从双方经贸概况介绍到双方经贸互补分析的过渡，从经贸数据的直观分组上，说明中国与东盟不同类别的成员国间的互补与优势。本章在全文中处于由介绍向分析的过渡，起着承上启下的作用。本章按照双方的经贸规模、贸易结构特点和相互投资水平，将中国与东盟国家的经贸关系分成三个组别，分别从双方的进出口贸易、<WP=4>相互投资和国际经济合作等方面做了简要介绍。 第一组是以新加坡为首的老东盟五国，包括新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国和菲律宾。这组国家经济较为发达，与中国的经贸关系较为密切，多在工业制品上与中国有着大量的互有进出口，存在一定的产业内贸易特征。同时，双方有一定规模的相互投资和国际经济合作。 第二组是除了文莱外的新东盟四国，包括缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝和越南，多为农业经济国家，经济较不发达，与中国的经贸规模极为有限，贸易结构具有明显的专业化分工特征。中国主要从其进口初级产品，而对其出口工业制品，双边贸易极大地依赖各国的自然资源。投资主要是中国对其进行的挖掘经贸潜力性质的，而其对我投资则刚刚开始，尚未形成规模。 文莱作为东盟国家中收入较高，而与中国的经贸尚处于起步阶段的国家，具有了其独特的特征，因此单独作为一组进行分析。第三章 中国与东盟经贸互补与优势：整体分析本章是全文分析的重点部分，在对前一部分经贸概况总结的基础上进行实证分析，以说明中国与东盟双方的经贸互补与优势，同时为第四章应对战略和具体措施的提出提供理论依据。本章第一节用贸易专业化指数（TS更多还原

【Abstract】 The high-speed development of modern technology and productivity has made the economic globalization an incoercible trend. Currently, an important character of the globalization is the swift development of the regional economic cooperation. Asia obviously lags behind the rest of the world, which is very disproportionate with its important status in the world economy. Asian countries are seeking the opportunity of regional cooperation. In the November of 2001, China brought forward the notion of establishing China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. And, in the November of 2002, the Framework Agreement on China-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Co-operation was signed between China and ASEAN, indicating the start-up of building the China-ASEAN FTA. It is sure that the notion will materially and deeply affects the development of Sino-ASEAN economic and trade relation. Only based on larger scale of regional trade, the FTA can fully exert the economic functions of trade creation, market enlargement and competition acceleration. Then, it is of theoretic and practical significance to enhance the study of China and ASEAN, nowadays and in a long time. The purpose of the paper is, with study of the status of relation between the both and lists of strategy, policy and measure, to promote the development of Sino-ASEAN economic and trade relation, and realize the economic functions of FTA and original intention of the FTA established by China and ASEAN The following questions must be answered in studying Sino-ASEAN economic and trade relation: How about the actuality of it? How about the status of the trade and investment between China and the members of ASEAN? What is the competition? What are the advantageous and the restrained factors to develop it? How to foster it? By answering these questions, the analysis of the relation is accomplished, and the strategy<WP=7>and the measures are put forward in the paper.The method of Pragmatic Analysis is used in the article, introducing and analyzing the relation with much historical data. According to the scale of trade, the character of trade structure, and the level of mutual investment, members of ASEAN are classified into groups, in introducing the status of Sino-ASEAN economic and trade relation. The grouping makes it easy to dig the advantage of the both parties. Trade Specialization Index, Intra-Industry Trade Index, Pearson Coefficient, Revealed Comparative Advantage Index are used to explain the advantage of them. Moreover, the paper attaches importance to update the data, including the latest as soon as possible, to show the up-to-date status of the trade and economic relation between China and ASEAN. It is from individual to general, from easiness to difficulty, from the skin-deep introduction to the in-depth analyses, from the introduction of groups of the members to the analyses of the whole, from problems to measure, and from the overall strategy to the detailed measure, which displays the consecution of the paper’s structure.The paper consists two parts. The first one, chapter one and two, is the foundation of the analyses in the paper, introducing the relation of trade and economy between China and ASEAN. The rest part is the main body of the paper, including chapter three and four. On basis of the introduction in the first part, it analyzes the mutual benefit and the competition between the both, the advantageous and restrictive factors, and proposes suggestions to develop the bilateral relation in the 21st century.The contents are as following:The preface gives the background and the purpose of the paper, and briefly recites the main thoughtfulness and logic structure of the whole.Chapter one: summary of the trade and economic relation between China and ASEAN.<WP=8>The chapter is the base of the framework of the article. According to the scale of bilateral trade and economy, history of the relation can be introduced at three stages. Then, the up-to-date status is described in five ways, exports and imports, service trade, investments, international更多还原