对近几年我国货币政策有效性的分析与研究

【作者】 孔曙东；

【导师】 张静琦；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 一、本文所研究问题的目的和意义本论文的选题是《对近几年我国货币政策有效性的分析与研究》，主要以西方经济学界货币政策有效性理论为指导，考察我国近几年货币政策操作的实际效果。对其有效性从定性、定量两方面给予解释和判断，并对造成我国货币政策有效性低微的原因进行详细分析，同时提出相应的政策建议和措施安排。本文之所以选择这样一个题目，主要是因为我国在世纪之交宏观经济实现软着陆后，发生了从总供给到总需求不足的巨大变化，出现了物价持续数月甚至几年走低，投资、消费需求不旺，经济增长乏力的通货紧缩现象。对此，央行先后采取了八次降低存贷款利息，取消贷款规模等一系列扩张性政策措施，但取得的效果比较微弱。在此背景下，探讨我国货币政策有效性低微的原因，寻求具体解决问题的办法，提出一些合理性建议。不仅可以深化自己所学的货币、金融理论，而且具有重要的现实意义。二、本文的基本思路和逻辑结构本文对近几年我国货币政策有效性的研究是先从解析货币政策有效性的概念出发的，我觉得让大家对货币政策有效性概念有一个全面正确的了解是很有必要的，货币政策的有效性可从“定性、定量、时滞”三个方面来理解。然后对西方经济学界两大主流学派有关货币政策有效性理论加以系统地分析、解释和评述，目的是为以下几章探索我国货币政策有效性问题提供理论上的借鉴和指导。接下来对我国央行近几年所实施的货币政策性质进行合理定位，并对货币政策实施的效果从定性、定量两个方面给予客观评价。明确指出近几年我国央行所实施的稳健型货币政策其实质就是扩张性的货币政策，同时对我国近几年货币政策的实施效果从定性方面应该判定为有效，从定量方面判定应该是有效性较弱。在此基础上，对造成我国货币政策有效性较弱的原因从不同角度，不同层面进行详细的分析和论述。最后一章提<WP=3>出了具体合理的政策建议及措施安排。在逻辑上，本论文中每章与前一章都有着承前启后的逻辑关系，每一章中的前后段落也都有着严密的承前启后的逻辑关系。本论文的逻辑分析框架是货币政策调控经济运行的系统传导程序图，在这一总的逻辑框架指导下，对整个运行系统中重要环节存在的问题进行分析，也就是对造成我国货币政策有效性较弱的具体原因的分析。三、本文的主要内容和观点本文共分五章。第一章共分三节。第一节主要从定性、定量和时滞的角度对货币政策有效性概念进行了详细论述。第二节主要对凯恩斯学派关于货币政策有效性总的观点；在不同经济背景下货币政策效果的大小；影响货币政策效果的一般因素；财政政策与货币政策在不同时期的效果比较；货币政策操作主张等问题进行了阐述和分析。第三节主要介绍了以弗里德曼为代表的货币主义学派关于货币政策有效性一系列观点和货币政策操作主张。同时对两大学派主要的观点进行了评述。第二章主要介绍了三个问题：一是对我国近几年货币政策的实践从阶段和性质两个层面进行了划分和定性；二是从定性和定量两个角度对我国货币政策的有效性进行了客观评价；三是对造成我国货币政策有效性较弱的原因进行概括的描述。第三章是本论文的重点章，在这一章中笔者对造成我国货币政策有效性较弱的原因从不同的环节，不同的侧面进行详细分析。本章共分五节：第一节主要对货币政策调控经济运行的机理进行了详细的分析，并形象地描绘出货币政策调控经济运行的机理图。第二节主要从利率管制的角度对我国货币政策有效性造成的影响进行了详细论述。同时指出货币政策通过利率渠道来传导必须具备的一个前提条件就是要有一个完整有效的利率市场体系，利率非市场化只能削弱利率杠杆对货币政策中介目标Ms的调控功能，同时也使货币政策的传导渠道变窄，还会造成名义利率与实际利率的严重偏离，最终导致实体经济部门对利率政策反应不灵敏，货币政策作用不能有效发挥的后果。在第三节中主要分析了三个问题：一是说明信贷渠道目前仍是我国货币政<WP=4>策传导的主要渠道；二是分析了商业银行传导货币政策的信用可得性理论和信贷配给理论，以及商业银行传导货币政策的两个渠道，即银行信贷渠道和资产负债表渠道；三是分析了商业银行经营的非稳健性，严格的信贷管理制度，宏观金融政策的限制。第四节从货币市场与货币政策的关系入手，重点分析了我国货币市场发展过程中存在的主要问题以及对货币政策有效性造成的不利影响。第五节从大的方面来说是介绍了三个问题：一是资本市场的发展对货币政策的影响；二是对资本市场传导货币政策 的五大理论即：Q值效应理论，非对称信息理论，财富效应理论，流动性效应理论，物价预期理论进行了分析；三是对我国资本市场传导货币政策的主要障碍进行了分析。第四章主要是针对第三章中论述的有关影响货币政策有效性的各个层面提出了具体政策建议和措施安排。具有一定的现实性、针对性、可操作性。目的是想通过这些建议和措施的实施能促进我国货币政策有效性的显著提高。四、本论文的主要特点本论文的选题具有较强的现实性、挑战性和前瞻性，对货币政策有效性的研究是近几年来金融理论界关注的热点和前?更多还原

【Abstract】 Ⅰ.The research purpose and significance in this paperIn this paper, the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy is explained and judged quantitatively and qualitatively by reference to the theory of the effectiveness of monetary policy developed by western economists. Then suggestions and ways to improve were given by analyzing the inner cause to the weak effectiveness of monetary policy in China.It is truly vital to make further researches in this subject especially when china suffered the deflation. Since the beginning of 21st century, the relationship of aggregate supply and demand has changed oppositely to the before. Aggregate supply surpassed gross demand, what’s more, the price index dropped to a low level and the investment and consumer demand stagnated. In order to overcome the deflation, the central bank of China took many measures, which included lowering the interest rate of savings and lending, canceling the control of loans size and so on, but the central bank has achieved few success. Therefore it was urgent to do some researches in the real mechanism of the economy operation and find in the real reason of the weak effectiveness of monetary policy.<WP=6>Ⅱ.The outline and logic structure of the research paperIt is necessary to understand the concept of "the effectiveness of monetary policy" fully and clearly. This concept can always be understood in three aspects: quantity, quality and time stagnation. There are two different views about this subject among western economists. So I will introduce, analyze their views and points respectively and systematically. Then with the reference to the above theory, I will position the monetary policy of the central bank in recent years and appraise it impersonally. After that I drew a conclusion that the so called steady monetary policy was expansionary monetary policy. Qualitatively speaking, the policy is effective; on the other hand, the effectiveness is weak from the point of quantitatively analysis. On the base of it, I analyzed the reasons that lead to the weakness of monetary policy from different aspects. In the last chapter, some feasible policy suggestion and measures were given.As to logic, each chapter keeps logic relationship with its previous one, and takes over from the past and set a new course for the next pages. The same is true for the paragraphs. The logic analysis frame on this thesis is the conduct procedure chart of the monetary policy adjusts and control of economical operation. Under the guidance of the logics frame, to analyze entirely the problem existing in operate system important link, it is too the analysis on the concrete reason that causes our country monetary policy validity weak.Ⅲ.Main content and view of this thesisThis thesis is divided into fore chapters.The first chapter is divided into three parts. The first part mainly details monetary policy validity concept at angles of nature and quality and time., the second part mainly analysis the total view of Keynes school about monetary policy validity; the intensity of the monetary policy result in different background of economy; the general factors to affect the monetary<WP=7>policy result; the result of financial policy is compared with the result of monetary policy in different periods; the operate Suggestion on monetary policy. The third part introduces mainly a series of views and monetary policies operation suggestions of the monetary doctrine school about monetary policy validity. At the same time gives a comment on the main views of "the two big school". Chapter two introduces three questions mainly: Practice of monetary policy of our country in the past several years is divided into several stages and determined the nature from two aspects of the stage and nature first; the second question is giving a objective appraisal of the monetary policy validity at two angle of the nature and the quality; the third question is to describe summarily some reasons that causes our country monetary policy validity weak.Chapter three is a key cha更多还原