【作者】 夏冬冬；

【导师】 施能；

【作者基本信息】 南京气象学院 ， 气象学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 综合分析了其他学者的研究结果，总结了1920—2000年期间发生的ENSO事件的年表。 用最新创建的全球陆地月降水资料(PREC/L)，研究了1948-2000年期间的ENSO事件与全球陆地年降水量的关系。对合成分析的结果进行了蒙特卡洛模拟检验。结果表明，暖事件年全球陆地年降水量大范围地明显减少。显著的地区是：赤道西太平洋区、中国的华北、赤道中美洲区、孟加拉湾北部及尼泊尔、东澳大利亚区、印度西部及巴基斯坦南部、勒拿河以东地区，西欧及南极的威尔克斯等区域。在暖事件年，陆地年降水量增加地区不多，主要是南美的智利和阿根廷、东非索马里、肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚、中东的土耳其、伊拉克及伊朗、北非的利比亚和阿尔及利亚、西南非的纳米比亚及非洲南部的博茨瓦纳和津巴布韦。统计检验表明，暖事件年全球陆地年降水量减少的面积比降水量增加的面积要大，而且更为显著。将本文结果与早期的研究结果进行了比较。研究还指出，ENSO的年代际变化对上述地区降水的年代际变化影响不明显。但是，80年代以后的暖事件对东澳大利亚干旱、中国的华北的干旱的影响比80年代前的影响更大。 还用到了陈绿文利用PREC/L资料将Hulme的资料插补为完整的1920—2000年全球陆地降水场资料，研究了1920—2000年期间发生ENSO事件年份的全球及区域降水异常特征。结果表明，当暖事件发生时，全球的降水是减少的，当冷事件发生时，全球的降水是增加的。冷事件对降水的影响的时段比暖事件短一些。1976年以后暖事件发生降水异常的月份要少于1976年以前，而1976年以后冷事件发生降水异常的月份要多于1976年以前。当ENSO发生时，1976年以前和1976年以后的的全球降水发生了年代际变化。还分析了不同区域在ENSO开始年的前(后)6个月的降水变化特征。最后还研究了与ENSO有关的最大降水出现月份的地理分布。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper summarized the timetable of ENSO event during 1920-2000 by analyzing the previous result of other scholar.The global land monthly precipitation data (PREC/C) are used to investigate the relation between the global land annual precipitation and ENSO during 1948-2000,and the results of composite analysis are tested with Monte Carlo simulations. Results indicate that global land annual precipitation reduced significantly in large-scale areas in warm events years. Remarkable areas are the equatorial West Pacific, North China, equatorial Central America, north of Bengal Gulf and Nepal, Eastern Australia, West India and South Pakistan, east of Lena River and West Europe and Wilkes in Antarctic. In warm events years, the areas where precipitation increased were less. Main areas are Chile and Argentina of South American, Somali, Kenya and Tanzania in East Africa, Turkey, Iraq and Iran in Middle East, Libya and Algeria in North Africa, Namibia in Southwest Africa and Botswana and Zimbabwe in south of Africa. Statistical tests show that the acreage whose global annual land precipitation decreases is greater than which increases, and more prominent. The results in this paper are compared with previous studies. It is also pointed out that, the decadal variety of ENSO has not evident effect to the decadal variety of precipitation of above areas. However, the influence of warm events after 1980’s to the drought of Eastern Australia and North China is more notable than before.We also use the data from 1920-2000, which were made by Chen through interpolating the data of precipitation records in global land (PREC/L) to replace the lack records of the global land precipitation dataset updated by Or. Mike Hulme, to study the global and regional abnormal character of precipitation in the year when ENSO events had taken place during 1920-2000.lt shows that, the precipitation decreased in warm events, increased in cold events. The period of time of the influence of cold events to precipitation is shorter than the one of warm events. The number of the month when precipitation is abnormal of warm events after 1976 is little than before, however, the number of the month when precipitation is abnormal of cold events after 1976 is more than before. When ENSO is happened , the global precipitation has decadal variety between the time before 1976 and after 1976.We also analyzed the character of the variety of precipitation in different region during the six months before(after) the beginning year of ENSO. At last, we study the geographical distribution of the month when the most extreme happened.更多还原