【作者】 王学凤；

【导师】 沈冰；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 金盆水库是一个以给西安市供水为主，兼顾灌溉、发电、防洪为目标的多用途水库。金盆水库调度结果不仅关系到西安市需水量能否得到满足，而且对水库本身来说，也关系到水库能否创造效益，创造多大效益的问题。本论文基于上述目的，采用系统科学的理论与方法对金盆水库优化调度进行了研究，并将一些新方法尝试用到水库调度中。其主要内容及研究成果如下： (1)水库优化调度中几个关键问题的处理。金盆水库优化调度采用了黑河流域短期洪水预报结果作为水库的入流，因此，将计算时段取为小时；对短期洪水预报结果采用逐时段修正的方法；采用模糊的方法将中期预报结果应用到水库调度中，建立水库中期预报调度策略，以指导水库的实时调度。 (2)优化调度模型的建立及求解。根据金盆水库多目标特点，建立四个优化调度目标函数模型。从分析每个模型的可行性着手，采用联解模型的方式和逐次优化算法(POA)推求水库的运行策略。 (3)建立金盆水库实时调度模型。根据上述短期预报结果求得的运行策略，采用逐步回归方法求得水库的回归模型；根据前面求得的中期预报调度策略与回归模型相结合，建立水库的实时调度模型。 (4)初步探索遗传算法在水库调度中应用的可行性。根据遗传算法(GA)的特点，以某年逐月资料为例，采用GA算法求得水库逐月优化调度结果。对POA与GA两种方法进行比较，探讨它们的适用范围和优缺点。 (5)初步建立、开发金盆水库预报调度系统。采用先进的开发平台，遵循国家防汛办制定的《水库洪水调度系统设计与开发规则》规定，在计算机上建立具有数据处理、预报计算、校正及调度等功能的完整而实用的预报调度系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 Jinpen Reservoir is a multi-purpose reservoir with the main objective of supply water for Xi’an city as well as irrigation, electricity generation and flood control. The operation results for Jinpen Reservoir considers not only the water demand quantity of Xi’an city but also the benefit that Jinpen Reservoir may bring about. Based on the above-mentioned purposes, system engineering is used to study the optimal operation for Jinpen Reservoir and some new methods are attempted to apply in reservoir operation. The main contents and results are as follows:(1) The treatment of several key problems in Jinpen Reservoir optimal operation is discussed. The short-term flood forecast data are used as the inflow of reservoir and the calculating period is one hour. The results of short-term flood forecast are modified hour by hour. The results of middle-term forecast are used in reservoir operation with the fuzzy method and the rules of middle-term operation are established for the guidance of real-time operation.(2) The optimal operation models are established and solved. According to the characteristics of multi-purpose of the Jinpen Reservoir, four optimal operation models are set up. By analyzing the feasibility of each model, the operation rules of reservoir are obtained by solving four models based on the progressive optimal algorithm.(3) The real-time operation model is established. According to above operation results of short-term forecast, the regression model is obtained by stepwise regression method. The real-time operation rules are obtained by the way of middle-term operation and regression model.(4) The feasibility of genetic algorithm used in reservoir operation is discussed. According to the characteristics of genetic algorithm, take the monthly data of one year as an example to show the monthly operation results by the method of genetic algorithm. Compared POA with GA, their used extends, advantages and disadvantages can be known.(5) The forecast and operation system is exploited. An applicable forecast and operation system is established by utilizing advanced developing platform and following the regulations of "the design and developing rules of reservoir flood system". The system has the function of data processing, calibrating, forecasting and operating with the aid of computers.更多还原